Anna Creti

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters׳ markets than in the importers׳ ones.

Gas Storage Services and Regulation in Italy: A Delphi Analysis

The objective of this paper is to assess to which extent gas market inefficiencies, such as weak competition, import dependence and lack of flexibility tools, affect operation and usage of storage services in Italy in the aftermath of the EU liberalization process. The analysis is supported by the empirical results of a Delphi survey that we have conducted to investigate storage service provision and regulation in Italy. We argue that the Italian storage sector is at a crossroads. The policy-driven phase of liberalization is ending and the market-driven phase has just begun. The former phase has granted fair access to storage, narrowed the likelihood of strategic behaviour by the incumbent and secured residential users against supply disruptions, but it has proved dynamically inefficient. Cost-reflective tariffs and low penalties for unbalances have both lowered incentives to expand the range of flexibility tools and penalized industrial customers demand. The market-driven phase has just started. The expected increase in working capacity and the entry of newcomers in the authorization process for new facilities are a progress towards the commercial use of storage. To this end, however, a further change in gas market design is needed: the creation of a well functioning spot market.

Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets

The paper applies an event study methodologyaims to investigate the macroeconomic announcements effects on Standard&Poor’s500 and oil prices. Our results provide evidence for a significant impact of the US macroeconomic news on oil prices. This impact is split into two components, namely the direct effect (common response) and indirect effect (volatility transmission). Altogether our results show that the volatility transmission is bidirectional. Not only a significant volatility transmission from the oil market to the US stock market is revealed, but also a high volatility transmission is recorded from the oil market to the stock market especially after the release of consumption indicators.

Some economics of seasonal gas storage

We propose a model of seasonal gas markets which is flexible enough to include supply and demand shocks while also considering exhaustibility. The relative performances of alternative policies based on price caps and associated measures or tariffs are discussed. We illustrate with structural estimates on US data how this theory can be used to give insights into the intertemporal incidence of policy instruments.

Network technologies, communication externalities and total factor productivity

Abstract The main aim of this paper is to determine the factors which enhance or temper firms’ private incentives to use communications technologies that are characterised by network externalities and allow firms to influence their rate of technological change or total factor productivity (TFP). As regards the impact of the network effect on TFP, we find that when the externality parameter is low, a slightly negative effect appears, but this effect is reversed when the externality is higher. This relationship is valid regardless of the number of firms. Our result is particularly interesting because it offers a possible explanation for the Solow productivity paradox. We conclude that, in addition to the degree of network effects, market structure, consumer preferences and the number of users also have a very important influence on TFP and technological change.

Gas storage and security of Supply

This paper analyzes the role of storage for economies facing the risk of a gas supply disruption. We characterize the optimal/competitive transitory dynamics (accumulation, drainage and target stock). We show that the lack of protection of property rights, e.g. antispeculation measures, is likely to discourage storage completely. Responsible policy involves a series of measures taken ex ante that limit market failure. We provide a general method to calculate the social value of a policy. Finally, the model is extended to encompass specific characteristics of the gas industry (injection and release costs, limited storage capacity) and the timing of the crisis (alert/disruption). ∗We are grateful to seminar participants at Athens, Bologna, EARIE, Milan, Paris, THOR for their valuable remarks. †Direction de la Recherche, 361 av Pres Wilson, 93210 Saint Denis; e-mail: corinne.chaton@gazdefrance.com. ‡Universite de Toulouse, 21 allee de Brienne, 31000 Toulouse; e-mail: creti@cict.fr. §Universite de Toulouse, 21 allee de Brienne, 31000 Toulouse; e-mail: bertrand.villeneuve@cict.fr.

Im-Perfectly Competitive Contract Markets for Electricity

Notwithstanding academic and regulatory interests as well as empirical evidence, to date the effect of contracts on competition in electricity markets is a very controversial issue. We suggest an original approach to shed light on this debate. Modeling competition by mean of conjectural variations we demonstrate that anti-competitive effects follow the upsurge of discrimination practices. Altering the time distribution of the perfect arbitrage constraint (i.e. ex-post in spite of ex-ante) we put a bridge between IO and financial models on price manipulation. Endogenizing forward demand we provide a rationale for shifting dominant attitudes to forward markets. Finally, studying sequential choices we balance quantity and price competition with Stackelberg leadership. Simulations and qualitative estimates support our findings.

Intermittent Renewable Generation and Network Congestion: An Empirical Analysis of Italian Power Market

The literature demonstrates the likely reduction of wholesale electricity prices due to a larger penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). When markets are organized as two or more inter-connected sub-markets within a larger power market the final impact of increasing RES production may be less straightforward given the presence of network constraints. We tests this phenomenon by analyzing the impact of RES production on the probability of congestion and on the size of congestion cost in Italy. Using a database with hourly observations for a five year period we estimate two econometric models on five zonal pairings: a multinomial logit model for the occurrence and direction of congestion and a three stage least square model for the size of congestion costs. The analysis suggests that the e ffect of a larger local wind and solar supply is to decrease the probability of suff ering congestion in entry and to increase the probability of causing a congestion in exit compared to no congestion case. Increasing hydroelectric production has a similar eff ect. These results hold for both importing and exporting regions, but importing regions are less likely to cause congestion in exit, therefore the installation of new RES capacity in these zones may have a positive eff ects in terms of flow balance between regions. Concerning the cost level, a larger local RES supply seems to push the congestion cost towards negative values as it decreases the marginal cost for balancing the system. This is true for all zones in the case of explicit congestion cost, but it is only verified in importing regions in the case of implicit congestion cost. This result suggests that the increase of RES production should be promoted in importing zones, but the overall growth should be controlled in order to avoid congestion in the opposite direction.

Price versus quantities in the coordination of international environmental policy

This work contributes to the debate on coordination of international environmental policy by revisiting Mandell (2008)’s result who, on the ground of Weitzman (1974)’s model, is in favor of a decentralized regulation at the sectorial or country level instead of a unified one. We show that whether different countries should optimally set their own environmental regulation instead of entering a common framework crucially depends on the combination between firms’ heterogeneity in abatement costs, size of the regulated sectors at the national level, as well as uncertainty on aggregate marginal abatement benefits and costs.

Does Expected Supply Affect the Price of Emission Permits? Evidence from Phase I in the European System

Does current and future supply affect the market price of pemits? The answer should be positive as the market itself was created by the governments that also control the supply. However, governments themselves may be uncertain about the relation between supply and price and may go through a learning period. Do investors believe in the announcements of governments about the future supply? We find the answer was positive at least regarding Phase I of the European system, where empirical evidence about a current excess supply of permits was offset by announcements of a future excess demand.