Khaled Guesmi

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters׳ markets than in the importers׳ ones.

Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets

The paper applies an event study methodologyaims to investigate the macroeconomic announcements effects on Standard&Poor’s500 and oil prices. Our results provide evidence for a significant impact of the US macroeconomic news on oil prices. This impact is split into two components, namely the direct effect (common response) and indirect effect (volatility transmission). Altogether our results show that the volatility transmission is bidirectional. Not only a significant volatility transmission from the oil market to the US stock market is revealed, but also a high volatility transmission is recorded from the oil market to the stock market especially after the release of consumption indicators.

Time-varying regional integration of stock markets in Southeast Europe

We investigate the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in the context of an ICAPM accounting for the deviations from PPP as well as temporal variations in both regional and local sources of risk. Using data from four major countries of the Southeast Europe, our results support the validity of the ICAPM and show that changes in the degree of regional integration are explained principally by trade openness and stock market development whatever the measure of currency risk. As market integration induces both benefits and risks, our findings should have significant implications for economic policies and market regulations.

Determinants Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Middle East and North Africa Region: Panel Cointegration Analysis

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and their macroeconomic determinants in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period 1970-2010. Using recent panel data techniques, we take into account the both hypothesis economic dependencies and structural breaks. We find that economic openness, growth rate, economic instability and exchange rate have a long-run impact on FDI inflows in our panel.

Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach

This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation.

Comovements and Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices and Stock Markets: Further Evidence for Oil-Exporting and Oil-Importing Countries

This chapter provides further evidence of the comovements and dynamic volatility spillovers between stock markets and oil prices for a sample of five oil-importing countries (USA, Italy, Germany, Netherlands and France) and four oil-exporting countries (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela). We make use of a multivariate GJR-DCC-GARCH approach developed by Glosten et al. (1993) . The results show that: (i) dynamic correlations do not differ for oil-importing and oil-exporting economies; (ii) cross-market comovements as measured by conditional correlation coefficients increase positively in response to significant aggregate demand (precautionary demand) and oil price shocks due to global business cycle fluctuations or world turmoil; (iii) oil prices exhibit positive correlation with stock markets; and (iv) oil assets are not a good ‘safe haven’ for protection against stock market losses during periods of turmoil.

Banking stability in the MENA region during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt debacle

Purpose This paper aims to focus on the main determinants of the performance and stability-banking sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the global financial crisis. Using a data set of 13 countries with both of 77 Islamic and 101 conventional banks during the period 2006-2013, empirical results show that specific variables allow explaining the change in the level of performance and stability for conventional and Islamic banks. However, the effect of some banks’ characteristics is not the same for the two bank groups. For the macroeconomic effect, it is observed that inflation exerts a negative effect on the bank performance except for conventional banks when it increases the profitability. Design/methodology/approach Using a data set of 13 countries with both of 77 Islamic and 101 conventional banks (CvB) during the period 2006-2013 and performing the generalized method of moments (GMM) method, the findings provide comprehensive evidence for the bank systems studied which are of interest also to policy makers and practitioners. Findings The main finding is that after the international financial crises of 2008, many worldwide banks have been experiencing crises in contrast to Islamic banks (IsB) which remain Gen more stable and more profitable. Foreign banks had a higher degree of exposure to risk, given their higher number of subsidiaries in the developed economies. As for the determinants of profitability, the bank-specific variables allow to explain the change in the level of performance and stability for conventional and Islamic banks. However, the effect of some banks characteristics is not the same for the two bank groups. For the macroeconomic effect, it is observed that inflation exerts a negative effect on the bank performance except for CvB when it increases the profitability measured by the return on assets (ROA). It is also found that the growth rate acts positively when the dependent variable is the ROA and negatively when the performance is measured by return on equity. Originality/value The inflation rate exerts a negative effect only on the ROA. This study differs from previous contributions in that it is tested the hypothesis of determinants of bank profitability and stability for both conventional and Islamic banks in the MENA region. It is of great interest to both policymakers and investors, with respect to regional development policies and dedicated portfolio investment strategies in each emerging region respectively. The authors adopted several ratios from the empirical literature on bank profitability and stability. Using a data set of 13 countries with both of 77 Islamic and 101 CvB during the period 2006-2013 and performing the GMM method, the findings have significant contributions to the literature by comprehensively clarifying and critically analyzing the current state of profitability and stability for both banks.

Are domestic Asian markets integrated with the regional one? An empirical assessment

This article investigates the evolution of the Asian stock market integration with the regional one. First, we estimate the time-varying degree of Asian market integration using conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with DCC-GARCH para-meters. Secondly, we study the structural breaks in these series. Finally, we relate the ob-tained results to important facts and economic events.