Anna-Kaisa Kosenius

Testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.

Heterogeneous preferences for recreation-oriented management in commercial forests: the role of citizens’ socioeconomic characteristics and recreational profiles

The management of forests for multiple benefits, such as recreational services alongside timber production, can greatly benefit from the knowledge of public preferences for management-related forest attributes. This paper investigates citizens’ recreational use and preferences for recreation-oriented management in the case of state-owned commercial forests in Finland using data from a choice experiment study. We focus on attributes related to the typical management practices applied to enhance recreation: scenic buffer zones along waters, game bird habitats, and the quality of scenery along hiking trails. Recreational use and its frequency were found to be related to citizens’ background and specific outdoor activities. The scenic buffer zones were the most important attribute to the citizens. While the recreation-enhancing practices were generally valued, respondent segments with distinct preferences were found. Preference heterogeneity was related to citizens’ socioeconomic characteristics and recreational profiles.

Willingness to pay for water level regulation in Lake Pielinen, Finland

Water environments provide many benefits for humans. In Finland, thousands of inland lakes serve a very rich and important environment for many activities and a number of ecosystem services. These services can be threatened due to other human activities but also for natural reasons. The natural fluctuation of water level in Lake Pielinen, the largest non-regulated lake in Finland, damages occupational, recreational and housing possibilities. This paper focuses on the examination of the local households’ attitudes, opinions and willingness to pay (WTP) for water level regulation at optimum level for recreational purposes in the summertime. The related economic benefits are analysed by applying the contingent valuation (CV) method. The logistic regression model and a variant of the Tobit model are used in the econometric analyses. The results show that WTP increases with higher income, youth, living near the shore, having a boat, being aware of the regulation plans and having no difficulties with the questions. The aggregate WTP of the local population is approximately EUR 0.24–0.44 million. The attitudinal results reveal a strong local interest in the regulation of Lake Pielinen.

Welfare effects of mining externalities: a combined travel cost and contingent behaviour study

ABSTRACT This paper applied the combination of travel cost method and contingent behaviour method to estimate the change in the recreational use value of the tourism site as a result of the adjacent mine implementation. The externalities considered were the visibility of the mine to the highest peaks of the area, traffic and noise effects, impacts on endangered aquatic species, and impacts on recreational possibilities. The data, containing five observations from each respondent, were analysed with the negative binomial count data model. The results show the sensitivity of visitors to the geographical scope and magnitude of mining externalities and to the visibility of the mine to the highest peaks. Moreover, the number of intended visits to the area correlates with gender, age, and recreational activities. Compared to an average visitor of the site, anglers, paddlers, and overnight hikers were subject to larger losses in welfare. Alternative scenarios on future mining externalities correspond to 29%–86% reductions in annual number of trips, corresponding to an annual welfare loss of 196–577€ for an average tourist.

Watershed Management Benefits in a Hypothetical, Real Intention and Real Willingness to Pay Approach

Despite growing knowledge of a disparity between stated and actual willingness to engage in pro-environmental behavior, little is known about the cognitive or attitudinal factors explaining the disparity. In the context of water quality improvement in a river basin, we address the disparity issue by applying two approaches: a typical valuation question with a hypothetical option of voluntary payment and a valuation question with a real option of voluntary payment. The latter treatment allows for further analysis of the respondents who committed to a real payment. We show empirical evidence on the psychological factors explaining the disparity between the treatments and its relationship with response uncertainty. The extent of learning from the survey about water management of the watershed increased the likelihood of stating the willingness to contribute, either with certainty or uncertainty. In turn, a previous contribution to the environmental issue, higher income, belief in the scenario, and responding to the hypothetical treatment increased the likelihood of stating certain willingness to contribute. Our findings indicate that the factors influencing the decision on the maximum payment differ between treatments. Cognitive factors, such as perceiving the valuation scenario as plausible, learning from the questionnaire, and in which mailing round the respondent completed the survey, only explained the stated amount for the willingness to pay in the treatment with a hypothetical option for voluntary payment. In the real option treatment, a higher stated willingness to pay was more likely if the respondent actually made the payment and had a higher household income.

The Role of Fisheries in Optimal Eutrophication Management

We analyze dynamically optimal eutrophication management using two controls, targeted fishing and reduction of external nutrient loads. Fishing removes nutrients from the water ecosystem, and the size of the fish stock also influences eutrophication through food web effects and other mechanisms. We show that fisheries have a role to play in cost-efficient water quality management in combination with external load reductions. Our numerical application considers phosphorus driven eutrophication, agricultural phosphorus abatement and fisheries targeted on cyprinids on a coastal bay in the Baltic Sea. The socially and privately optimal intensity of fishing efforts, phosphorus abatement and the resulting water quality are influenced by damages, revenues and costs. Furthermore, we show that the link between cyprinid fish stock and water quality, and the form of the fishing industry — sole owner or open access — have joint dynamics that lead to very different outcomes. A weak link between cyprinid stock and water quality is associated with socially optimal stock close to its maximum sustainable yield. This maximizes phosphorus removal. With a strong link, socially optimal stock and phosphorus removal are low. Coincidentally, open-access fishing sometimes yields socially desirable outcome automatically — a market failure in industry structure may counteract eutrophication.