Anna Kicinger

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population

AbstractPopulation and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. RésuméDes projections de population et de population active sont présentées pour 27 pays Européens pour la période 2002-052, avec un intérêt particulier pour l’impact de la migration internationale sur la dynamique des populations. A partir de scénarios uniques pour la fécondité, la mortalité et l’activité économique, trois séries d’hypothèses concernant les flux migratoires sont explorées, en intégrant des prévisions sur les développements des politiques publiquesàla suite de l’élargissement de l’Union Européenne. Les structures par âge sont analysées, de même que des indicateurs de rapports de dépendance. Les résultats indiquent que les flux d’immigration vraisemblables ne pourront pas compenser les effets négatifs du vieillissement de la population et de celui de la population active.

International Migration Scenarios for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052

In this chapter assumptions about future developments of international migration in 27 European countries over the period 2002–2052 are summarized. The assumptions were developed to serve as an input for the forecasts and simulations of population and labour force developments in Europe. On the basis of an overview of the theories of international migration, various ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors and recent migration trends in Europe presented before, three knowledge-based scenarios for the future are presented and subsequently quantified. The scenarios are formulated separately for the flows among the 27 countries under study and for the net migration with the other parts of the world.

Beyond the Focus on Europeanisation: Polish Migration Policy 1989–2004

In this article I analyse Polish migration policy development after 1989, with the aim of contributing to developing research on migration policies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Starting from the early stages of migration policy formulation at the beginning of the 1990s, the article first provides a brief overview of EU-driven policy developments, and then goes beyond the prevailing focus on Europeanisation in migration policy and points to other issues of importance for Polish migration policy analysis. These include Polands visa policy towards its Eastern neighbours, its policy of silent tolerance of the irregular employment of foreigners in Poland, and issues of repatriation and emigration.

The Use of International Migration Theories in Migration Forecasting—A Practical Approach

This chapter provides an assessment of the usefulness of the theories of international migration from the point of view of migration forecasting. We argue that theories are not very useful for migration forecasters. Migration theories are fragmented, refer to various spatial scales, are difficult to operationalize and span a large number of quite distant disciplines. Nevertheless, we do not advocate here the preparation of completely atheoretical forecasts. Instead, we suggest that picking the most appropriate theories might be a solution for forecasters. We conclude that the push–pull theory is the most suitable theory for direct use in migration forecasts and we analyse the main push—pull factors which have been identified as responsible for international migration in Europe. We also argue that migration policies should be factored explicitly when setting international migration scenarios.

Migration Policy from the European Perspective: A Primer for Forecasters

In this chapter a general outline of the development of the migration policies in European countries is presented. It contains a historical sketch of the policies and the status quo for 2002, supplemented with some expectations of their evolution after 2002. The rationale behind the incorporation of migration policy analysis in the demographic prognoses lies in its role in shaping the migration flows. Since the particular interest of this book lies in the impact migration might have on the demography of the sending and receiving countries, the aspects of migration policy influencing long-term migration are highlighted.