Marek Kupiszewski

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population

AbstractPopulation and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. RésuméDes projections de population et de population active sont présentées pour 27 pays Européens pour la période 2002-052, avec un intérêt particulier pour l’impact de la migration internationale sur la dynamique des populations. A partir de scénarios uniques pour la fécondité, la mortalité et l’activité économique, trois séries d’hypothèses concernant les flux migratoires sont explorées, en intégrant des prévisions sur les développements des politiques publiquesàla suite de l’élargissement de l’Union Européenne. Les structures par âge sont analysées, de même que des indicateurs de rapports de dépendance. Les résultats indiquent que les flux d’immigration vraisemblables ne pourront pas compenser les effets négatifs du vieillissement de la population et de celui de la population active.

Population migration in the European Union

This collection of studies by various authors aims to provide a comprehensive picture of migration flows and their influence on population redistribution within each of the countries of the European Union prior to 1995. The book is divided into three sections. The first section examines international migration patterns from east-west and north-south perspectives migration within the European Union and asylum seeking. The second section concerns national perspectives; there are chapters on Belgium Denmark Germany Greece Spain France Ireland Italy the Netherlands Portugal and the United Kingdom. The third section examines the impact of migration on population developments in the European Union and includes papers on migration policy and population projections.

Internal Migration and Urban Change in Poland

The paper investigates population change and migration over the period 1984–1994 for communes. There are important conclusions emerging from this study. The first is that we are watching now a profound change of population redistribution patterns in Poland. We observed that direct upwards hierarchical mobility has been markedly modified. The first modification is the substantial reduction of migration from rural to urban locations. There were important changes in the role of cities and towns. Largest cities, massive gainers of the seventies and eighties, have tended to lose population in the mid-nineties. It is likely that they lose population mainly to the neighbouring communes. We believe that a suburbanization process has been put into motion. Medium to large sized towns and cities, in the range between 50,000 and 500,000 as well as small, but not the smallest, towns attract substantial parts of the migration pool.

Multidimensional diversity in two European cities: thinking beyond ethnicity

This paper shifts discussion on social diversity from ethnic diversity to broader social diversity. We explore spatial social diversity and assess opportunities to encounter diversity in an urban context. In doing so, we prepared a description of diversity in the residential communities of two cities, Leeds and Warsaw, using census data for small areas (UK 2001, Poland 2002). Selected variables were used to represent the key social dimensions of difference: demographic, socioeconomic, ethnic, and disability. A cluster analysis using a k-means algorithm was implemented for each city separately and for the two cities combined using harmonized indicators. We selected eight cluster solutions for each city which had different profiles and spatial distributions. A combined cluster analysis showed that there was little overlap in community types across the two cities. The paper illustrates that Leeds and Warsaw residents experience very different opportunities to encounter difference which need to be taken into account when local diversity policies are implemented.

How trustworthy are forecasts of international migration between Poland and the European Union

The paper examines forecasts of international migration between Poland and the EU. It focuses on the analysis and evaluation of the methodology and results of some of these forecasts from a demographic point of view. The first issue considered is the diversity of forms of international mobility of population and its significance for migration forecasting. Then the impact of the difference in definitions of international migrations and differences in migration data arising from them are discussed. An estimate of the maximum net migration from Poland to the European Union based on historic flows is made. This information is used to evaluate the feasibility of selected forecasts of international migration from Poland after entry to the European Union.

Keeping up with Schengen: migration and policy in the European Union.

There is an inescapable relationship between the existence of migration movements and the resulting policies which are adopted by the authorities of the area concerned towards encouraging these movements, or more commonly towards attempting to control or to reduce them. This in turn means that the migration researcher must not only look at the effects of policy and changes in policy, important though this is, but must also attempt to understand the changing political factors which fuel the formation of policy. This paper aims to bring together some of the wide variety of policy issues and responses which may be observed in Europe at the present time and in the recent past, and in particular to make an assessment of the approaches being taken by the European Union member states as a whole, and also by the so-called Schengen group of member states. This article also attempts to look at the perceptions of these policies and their effects from the point of view of both the “western” and the “eastern” European countries, as migration policy issues are rarely onesided. In conclusion, it considers some of the research issues and problems which are raised by geographers and others working in this area, difficulties which might be implied by our possibly flippant title, “Keeping Up with Schengen.”

International Migration Scenarios for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052

In this chapter assumptions about future developments of international migration in 27 European countries over the period 2002–2052 are summarized. The assumptions were developed to serve as an input for the forecasts and simulations of population and labour force developments in Europe. On the basis of an overview of the theories of international migration, various ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors and recent migration trends in Europe presented before, three knowledge-based scenarios for the future are presented and subsequently quantified. The scenarios are formulated separately for the flows among the 27 countries under study and for the net migration with the other parts of the world.

Internal migration around the world: comparing distance travelled and its frictional effect

This paper examines how internal migration distance and its frictional effect vary between countries. Such comparisons are hampered by differences in the number and configuration of spatial units for which data are available − the modifiable area unit problem (MAUP). We use the flexible aggregation routines embedded in the IMAGE Studio, a bespoke software platform which incorporates a spatial interaction model, to elucidate these scale and pattern effects in a set of countries for which finely grained origin-destination matrices are available. We model the relationship between mean migration distance and mean area size and we show that the frictional effect of distance remains remarkably stable across spatial scale, except where zones have small populations and are poorly connected. This stability allows robust comparisons between countries even though zonal systems differ. We find that mean migration distances vary widely, being highest in large, low-density countries and positively associated with urbanisation, HDI and GDP per capita. This suggests a positive link between development and migration distance, paralleling that between development and migration intensity. We find less variation in the beta parameter that measures distance friction but identify clear spatial divisions between more developed countries, with lower friction in larger, less dense countries undergoing rapid population growth.

Population Ageing, Population Decline and Replacement Migration in Europe

This chapter looks predominantly at the possible role migration might play in containing ageing of European populations. We present selected results of simulations of migration flows from outside the system of 27 countries which would be hypothetically needed to maintain the sizes and structures of the populations under study. Various simulations are subsequently compared from the point of view of their plausibility and the impact of different assumptions on counteracting the negative economic effects of population ageing. The outcome of the analysis is compared with the outcomes of similar studies.

MULTIPOLES: A Revised Multiregional Model for Improved Capture of International Migration

Phil Rees provided the authors with the idea for the development of the MULTIPOLES model, initially to be used for projecting populations of Central and Eastern European countries. MULTIPOLES is based on movement type population accounts instead of the transition accounts. Since its inception, the MULTIPOLES model has been revised and improved several times. This chapter presents the model, its application and an assessment of error associated with the projections that the model generates.