Anne Bolster

Scale, Factor Analyses, and Neighborhood Effects

Studies of potential neighborhood effects have been constrained in most situations by the absence of small-area data generated to characterize the local contexts within which individuals operate. Using small-area data from the U.K. Census, this paper illustrates the creation of bespoke neighborhoodsÑlocal areas defined separately for each individual in a sample surveyÑat a variety of scales, and their characterization using factor analysis techniques. Theories of neighborhood effects are uncertain as to the spatial scale at which the relevant processes operate, hence the value of exploring patterns consistent with those processes at a range of spatial scales. One problem with such comparative study is the incommensurability of regression coefficients derived from analyses using factor scores as the independent variables. The work reported here adapts a procedure introduced for reconstituting partial regression coefficients to circumvent that problem, and illustrates that patterns of voting at a recent British general election showed neighborhood-effect-like patterns at two separate scales simultaneously Ñwith individual voter characteristics held constant.

Spatial Scale and the Neighbourhood Effect: Multinomial Models of Voting at Two Recent British General Elections

Few studies of the neighbourhood effect in British voting patterns have addressed the important issue of spatial scale: at what level do these effects operate (if any), and do they operate simultaneously at more than one? Using the British Household Panel Study data, to which information on the characteristics of the population in the areas around each individual respondents home have been added, this article finds significant differences in the propensity of individuals to vote either Conservative or Liberal Democrat rather than Labour at two neighbourhood levels as well as at the regional level.

The Impact of Neighbourhood on the Income and Mental Health of British Social Renters

This paper examines the impact of neighbourhood on the income and mental health of individuals living in social housing in the UK. It exploits a dataset that is representative and longitudinal to match people to their very local neighbourhoods. Using this, the paper examines the effect of living in a neighbourhood in which the population is more disadvantaged on the levels and change, over a 10-year window, of income and mental health. It is found that social renters who live with the most disadvantaged individuals as neighbours have lower levels of household income and poorer mental health. However, neighbourhood appears to have no impact on changes in either household income or individual mental health.

Egocentric economic voting and changes in party choice: Great Britain 1992–2001

Theories of economic voting argue that people who are feeling well off and who are optimistic about the future are likely to vote for the incumbent government’s return to power, whereas those suffering financially and pessimistic about the future are not. Many British cross‐sectional analyses of voting patterns have produced results consistent with this argument. Those findings have been challenged, however, on the grounds that the economic evaluations cannot be considered exogenous: economic evaluations at one election may be conditioned by party choice at a previous election. This argument is tested using panel survey data on egocentric economic evaluations and party choice for two electoral cycles in Great Britain (1992–97 and 1997–2001) and found valid. These data provide virtually no evidence to sustain the economic voting theory and instead support the endogeneity case.