Ron Johnston

Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: experiences in Britain, Australia and New Zealand

Abstract Since 1990, technology foresight has spread rapidly. We begin by analyzing the reasons for this before examining the specific political background to technology foresight in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. The article analyzes and compares the approaches to foresight in these countries, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We then propose a new rationale for technology foresight, which centers on its role in “wiring up” and thereby strengthening the national innovation system, before arriving at a number of conclusions.

Effects of resource concentration on research performance

This paper reports the results of a study commissioned by the Australian National Board of Employment, Education and Training, which examines in detail the effect of resource concentration on research performance, and the basis for critical mass, economies of scale, critical time and risk strategy hypotheses. The widespread introduction of policies of resource concentration around the world are found to have been based on little examined assumptions, and in operation to be at times counter-productive. In general relationships between group size and productivity are found to be linear, though there does appear to be evidence for an optimal size of 5–8. Detailed results and policy implications of these findings are presented.

Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight

– The objective of this paper is to contribute to improved practice and impact of foresight through the development and testing of a Foresight Impact Evaluation Schema. The schema is designed to guide foresight practitioners in the more effective design and conduct of foresight exercises to optimise impact., – The development of the schema is based on the significant previous work in this field, and the authors experience of designing and managing more than 100 foresight projects. It also takes into account accumulated experience with heuristics developed to guide foresight design and management, and with various approaches to evaluating the impact of social science knowledge on policy‐ and decision‐making., – A range of impacts identified from major foresight projects have been characterised according to four categories of impact ‐ awareness raising, informing policy, enabling greater capacity to address uncertainty, and influencing policy, strategy, investment, program delivery and public attitudes., – The schema needs to be tested against a variety of foresight projects to further refine its usefulness., – With the rapid growth of the application of foresight, it has become essential to guide practitioners in the appropriate design and management of all the processes associated with foresight to achieve maximum impact, and to demonstrate the value of the investment in foresight to consequent policy and planning., – This paper builds on earlier and contemporary work to develop a more refined and applicable schema to guide foresight impact evaluation.

Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy

Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy Jennifer Cassingena Harper a , Kerstin Cuhls b , Luke Georghiou c & Ron Johnston d a Malta Council for Science and Technology , Kalkara, Malta b Department Innovation Systems and Policy , Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI , Karlsruhe, Germany c Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, MBS , University of Manchester , UK d Australian Centre for Innovation, Faculty of Engineering , University of Sydney , Australia Published online: 23 Apr 2008.

Clusters: A review of their basis and development in Australia

Summary Clusters have become recognised as a potentially effective mechanism for enhancing competitive advantage, and governments around the world have sought to develop mechanisms to identify actual and potential clusters and to promote their formation and operation. Clusters enhance economic performance through increases in the productivity of member organisations, driving the pace and direction of innovation, stimulation of the formation of new businesses, and access to new knowledge and learning. There are a variety of types of cluster; the most fundamental distinction is between trade-driven clusters, where the emphasis is on trade between the members of the cluster and on collaborating in pre-competitive activities, and knowledge-driven clusters, where the benefits are based on access to new knowledge emerging from research organisations, and knowledge held by other firms. On this basis, a typology of clusters has been developed. It is evident from many studies that clusters cannot be artificially ‘manufacturedHowever conditions can be established which facilitate the formation of clusters and their contribution to economic value.

Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16–17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

THE IMPACT OF TELE-NETWORKING ON RESEARCH

It is commonplace that communication technologies are altering the face of research…Networks have become an accepted part of the practice of science. Researchers continue to clamour for network capability, and devour network capacity and services as fast as engineers can deploy them. But there is much more growth and experience to come. We are at an early stage of the learning curve. Policies that influence the rate of adoption and degree of access to telecommunication channels have profound implications for science. At one extreme, as different scientific disciplines adopt different channels at different rates, the likelihood of cross-disciplinary research decreases and differences in the rate of progress in those disciplines become more obvious … At the other extreme, adoption of the same telecommunication channels at the same rate promotes the sharing of knowledge, extended research groups, more information transfer, and the rapid diffusion of scientific information - but undermines disciplinary bounda...

The impact of foresight studies on human healthcare in the post-genomic era

Under the conditions of increased demand for ways of addressing the future through strategic intelligence, foresight is progressively being embedded as a planning, consultation and decision making tool. A typology of foresight outcomes is developed in order to more effectively evaluate, and assess the impact of foresight on policy. A case study of a recent multi-national foresight project which examined human health care in the post-genomic era demonstrates the crucial role of foresight in providing a means to grasp the complexity of the potential impacts, for reconciling the many different perspectives involved, and for providing a sound basis for future policies. The impact of the project is assessed against the various possible outcomes.