Anne Wein

Economic Resilience Lessons from the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario

Following a damaging earthquake, “business interruption” (BI)—reduced production of goods and services—begins and continues long after the ground shaking stops. Economic resilience reduces BI losses by making the best use of the resources available at a given point in time (static resilience) or by speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction (dynamic resilience), in contrast to mitigation that prevents damage in the first place. Economic resilience is an important concept to incorporate into economic loss modeling and in recovery and contingency planning. Economic resilience framework includes the applicability of resilience strategies to production inputs and output, demand- and supply-side effects, inherent and adaptive abilities, and levels of the economy. We use our resilience framework to organize and share strategies that enhance economic resilience, identify overlooked resilience strategies, and present evidence and structure of resilience strategies for economic loss modelers. Numerous resilience strategies are compiled from stakeholder discussions about the ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et. al. 2008). Modeled results of ShakeOut BI sector losses reveal variable effectiveness of resilience strategies for lengthy disruptions caused by fire-damaged buildings and water service outages. Resilience is a complement to mitigation and may, in fact, have cost and all-hazards advantages.

The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km2. A custom HAZUS®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes

Economic impacts of the ShakeOut scenario

87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total

Recovering from the ShakeOut Earthquake

191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage (

Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario

46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages (

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) and its Applications to Agricultural Systems in the United States

24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate

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68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and

The ShakeOut Scenario

11 billion in related costs in addition to the

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113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economys ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.