Lucile M. Jones

New Evidence on the State of Stress of the San Andreas Fault System

Contemporary in situ tectonic stress indicators along the San Andreas fault system in central California show northeast-directed horizontal compression that is nearly perpendicular to the strike of the fault. Such compression explains recent uplift of the Coast Ranges and the numerous active reverse faults and folds that trend nearly parallel to the San Andreas and that are otherwise unexplainable in terms of strike-slip deformation. Fault-normal crustal compression in central California is proposed to result from the extremely low shear strength of the San Andreas and the slightly convergent relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Preliminary in situ stress data from the Cajon Pass scientific drill hole (located 3.6 kilometers northeast of the San Andreas in southern California near San Bernardino, California) are also consistent with a weak fault, as they show no right-lateral shear stress at ∼2-kilometer depth on planes parallel to the San Andreas fault.

Seismicity Remotely Triggered by the Magnitude 7.3 Landers, California, Earthquake

The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California

After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.

Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April to July 1992.

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its Mw 6.1 preshock and Mw 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

The 1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence: Seismological observations

The (M_W 6.1, 7.3, 6.2) 1992 Landers earthquakes began on April 23 with the M_W6.1 1992 Joshua Tree preshock and form the most substantial earthquake sequence to occur in California in the last 40 years. This sequence ruptured almost 100 km of both surficial and concealed faults and caused aftershocks over an area 100 km wide by 180 km long. The faulting was predominantly strike slip and three main events in the sequence had unilateral rupture to the north away from the San Andreas fault. The M_W6.1 Joshua Tree preshock at 33°N58′ and 116°W19′ on 0451 UT April 23 was preceded by a tightly clustered foreshock sequence (M≤4.6) beginning 2 hours before the mainshock and followed by a large aftershock sequence with more than 6000 aftershocks. The aftershocks extended along a northerly trend from about 10 km north of the San Andreas fault, northwest of Indio, to the east-striking Pinto Mountain fault. The M_w7.3 Landers mainshock occurred at 34°N13′ and 116°W26′ at 1158 UT, June 28, 1992, and was preceded for 12 hours by 25 small M≤3 earthquakes at the mainshock epicenter. The distribution of more than 20,000 aftershocks, analyzed in this study, and short-period focal mechanisms illuminate a complex sequence of faulting. The aftershocks extend 60 km to the north of the mainshock epicenter along a system of at least five different surficial faults, and 40 km to the south, crossing the Pinto Mountain fault through the Joshua Tree aftershock zone towards the San Andreas fault near Indio. The rupture initiated in the depth range of 3–6 km, similar to previous M∼5 earthquakes in the region, although the maximum depth of aftershocks is about 15 km. The mainshock focal mechanism showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting with a strike of N10°W on an almost vertical fault. The rupture formed an arclike zone well defined by both surficial faulting and aftershocks, with more westerly faulting to the north. This change in strike is accomplished by jumping across dilational jogs connecting surficial faults with strikes rotated progressively to the west. A 20-km-long linear cluster of aftershocks occurred 10–20 km north of Barstow, or 30–40 km north of the end of the mainshock rupture. The most prominent off-fault aftershock cluster occurred 30 km to the west of the Landers mainshock. The largest aftershock was within this cluster, the M_w6.2 Big Bear aftershock occurring at 34°N10′ and 116°W49′ at 1505 UT June 28. It exhibited left-lateral strike-slip faulting on a northeast striking and steeply dipping plane. The Big Bear aftershocks form a linear trend extending 20 km to the northeast with a scattered distribution to the north. The Landers mainshock occurred near the southernmost extent of the Eastern California Shear Zone, an 80-km-wide, more than 400-km-long zone of deformation. This zone extends into the Death Valley region and accommodates about 10 to 20% of the plate motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The Joshua Tree preshock, its aftershocks, and Landers aftershocks form a previously missing link that connects the Eastern California Shear Zone to the southern San Andreas fault.

Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California

The temporal behavior of 39 aftershock sequences in southern California, 1933–1988, was modeled by the modified Omori relation. Minimum magnitudes for completeness of each sequence catalog were determined, and the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters K, p, and c, with the standard errors on each, were determined by the Ogata algorithm. The b value of each sequence was also calculated. Many of the active faults in the region, both strike slip and thrust, were sampled. The p values were graded in terms of the size of the standard error relative to the p value itself. Most of the sequences were modeled well by the Omori relation. Many of the sequences had p values close to the mean of the whole data set, 1.11±0.25, but values significantly different from the mean, as low as 0.7 and as high as 1.8, exist. No correlation of p with either the b value of the sequence or the mainshock magnitude was found. The results suggest a direct correlation of p values is with surface heat flow, with high values in the Salton Trough (high heat flow) and one low value in the San Bernardino Mountains and on the edge of the Ventura Basin (both low heat flow). The large fraction of the sequences with p values near the mean are at locations where the heat flow is near the regional mean, 74 mW/m2. If the hypothesis that aftershock decay rate is controlled by temperature at depth is valid, the effects of other factors such as heterogeneity of the fault zone properties are superimposed on the background rate determined by temperature. Surface heat flow is taken as an indicator of crustal temperature at hypocentral depths, but the effects on heat flow of convective heat transport and variations in near-surface thermal conductivity invalidate any simple association of local variations in heat flow with details of the subsurface temperature distribution. The interpretation is that higher temperatures in the aftershock source volume caused shortened stress relaxation times in the fault zone materials, leading to a faster decay rate (higher p value). In 1967, Mogi proposed such a relation on the basis of Japanese data. Seismic velocity distributions published for southern California generally support the hypothesis, with low velocities (higher temperatures) corresponding to high p values, and vice-versa.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake sequence in California: Seismological and tectonic aspects

The M_w 6.7 Northridge earthquake occurred on January 17, 1994, beneath the San Fernando Valley. Two seismicity clusters, located 25 km to the south and 35 km to the north-northwest, preceded the mainshock by 7 days and 16 hours, respectively. The mainshock hypocenter was relatively deep, at 19 km depth in the lower crust. It had a thrust faulting focal mechanism with a rake of 100° on a fault plane dipping 35° to the south-southwest and striking N75°W. Because the mainshock did not rupture the surface, its association with surficial geological features remains difficult to resolve. Nonetheless, its occurrence reemphasized the seismic hazard of concealed faults associated with the contractional deformation of the Transverse Ranges. The Northridge earthquake is part of the temporal increase in earthquake activity in the Los Angeles area since 1970. The mainshock was followed by an energetic aftershock sequence. Eight aftershocks of M ≥ 5.0 and 48 aftershocks of 4 ≤ M ≤ 5 occurred between January 17 and September 30, 1994. The aftershocks extend over most of the western San Fernando Valley and Santa Susana Mountains. They form a diffuse spatial distribution around the mainshock rupture plane, illuminating a previously unmapped thrust ramp, extending from 7–10 km depth into the lower crust to a depth of 23 km. No flattening of the aftershock distribution is observed near its bottom. At shallow depths, above 7–10 km, the thrust ramp is topped by a dense distribution of aftershock hypocenters bounded by some of the surficial faults. The dip of the ramp increases from east to west. The west side of the aftershock zoae is characterized by a dense, steeply dipping, and north-northeast striking planar cluster of aftershocks that exhibited mostly thrust faulting. These events coincided with the Gillibrand Canyon lateral ramp. Along the east side of the aftershock zone the aftershocks also exhibited primarily thrust faulting focal mechanisms. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks were dominated by thrust faulting in the large aftershocks, with some strike-slip and normal faulting in the smaller aftershocks. The 1971 San Fernando and the 1994 Northridge earthquakes ruptured partially abutting fault surfaces on opposite sides of a ridge. Both earthquakes accommodated north-south contractional deformation of the Transverse Ranges. The two earthquakes differ primarily in the dip direction of the faults and the depth of faulting. The 1971 north-northeast trend of left-lateral faulting (Chatsworth trend) was not activated in 1994.

Prediction probabilities from foreshocks

When any earthquake occurs, the possibility that it might be a foreshock increases the probability that a larger earthquake will occur nearby within the next few days. Clearly, the probability of a very large earthquake ought to be higher if the candidate foreshock were on or near a fault capable of producing that very large mainshock, especially if the fault is towards the end of its seismic cycle. We derive an expression for the probability of a major earthquake characteristic to a particular fault segment, given the occurrence of a potential foreshock near the fault. To evaluate this expression, we need: (1) the rate of background seismic activity in the area, (2) the long-term probability of a large earthquake on the fault, and (3) the rate at which foreshocks precede large earthquakes, as a function of time, magnitude, and spatial location. For this last function we assume the average properties of foreshocks to moderate earthquakes in California: (1) the rate of mainshock occurrence after foreshocks decays roughly as t^(−1), so that most foreshocks are within three days of their mainshock, (2) foreshocks and mainshocks occur within 10 km of each other, and (3) the fraction of mainshocks with foreshocks increases linearly as the magnitude threshold for foreshocks decreases, with 50% of the mainshocks having foreshocks with magnitudes within three units of the mainshock magnitude (within three days). We apply our results to the San Andreas, Hayward, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, using the probabilities of large earthquakes from the report of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1988). The magnitude of candidate event required to produce a 1% probability of a large earthquake on the San Andreas fault within three days ranges from a high of 5.3 for the segment in San Gorgonio Pass to a low of 3.6 for the Carrizo Plain.

The 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine, California, Earthquake Sequence: Complex Conjugate Strike-Slip Faulting

The 1999 M_w 7.1 Hector Mine mainshock showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting, with an initial strike of N6°W and vertical dip. The mainshock was preceded within 20 hours by 18 recorded foreshocks of 1.5 ≤ M ≤ 3.8 within a few kilometers distance of the mainshock hypocenter. The aftershocks delineate how the Hector Mine earthquake ruptured with strike N6°W to the south for a distance of 15 km, and possibly to the north for a distance of several kilometers. The two largest aftershocks of M 5.9 and M 5.7 occurred near the north and south ends of the first mainshock rupture segment. The second segment of rupture, starting 15 km to the south away from the mainshock hypocenter, delineated by strike-slip and thrust-faulting aftershocks, extends 10 km farther away with a strike of S140°E along the Bullion fault. The aftershocks also outline an unusual third rupture segment, extending from about 5 km south of the hypocenter with a strike of N30°W to N35°W for a distance of 20 km. Approximately 10 to 25 km farther to the north and west of the mainshock epicenter, several clusters form a complex aftershock distribution. Three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs models of the region exhibit only small regional changes, as is typical for the Mojave region. Nonetheless, the mainshock rupture started within a region of rapidly varying Vp, and at least three regions of low Vp/Vs are imaged within the aftershock zone. The rate of decay for the Hector Mine earthquake sequence has been slightly above the mean for both p-values and b-values in southern California. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks and the state of stress are consistent with strike-slip faulting, including a component of normal faulting most prominent to the north. The orientation of the regional maximum horizontal stress, the variation in orientation of the mainshock fault segments by 30°, and scattered distribution of aftershocks suggest that the mainshock and aftershock deformation field exhibit volumetric shear deformation accommodated by complex conjugate sets of strike-slip faults.