Anoushiravan Ehteshami

Political change in the Arab oil monarchies: from liberalization to enfranchisement

The oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf region have typically been portrayed as patriarchal autocracies characterized by traditional tribal rule that have taken on the characteristics of a modern state. The historical debate on these rentier states has centered on how their substantial oil income since the 1970s has allowed them to pacify their citizenry from making demands for enfranchisement. Power was thus firmly able to rest with the elites. Since the end of the Cold War, winds of change flamed the desire for reform and the late 1990s saw significant political changes. The empirical data indicates that this pace has increased, albeit at differential speeds, within the context of the post-9/11 war on terror. Interestingly, this has been the case despite turmoil in Iraq and a shift to the right in Iranian politics. The fundamental drivers of reform in the Arab oil monarchies continue to be the ruling elites themselves, however. The character of the reforms does appear to be mainly liberalizing rather than democratizing, but developments in some oil monarchies suggest that this process can be viewed as an early or intermediate stage of a wider enfranchisement of civil society.

Is the middle east democratizing

Abstract Elections have become a common feature of the political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa, where dozens of elections for office have taken place in recent years. But more, and frequent, elections, or even some political liberalization, is not synonymous with democratization. Where elections have become a feature of the political system, we still find some disturbing evidence of de‐liberalization as well. Looking at the record in more detail, this article attempts to highlight the continuing tensions between the pressures for democratization and the strategy of gradual opening up of political systems in the Middle East.

Globalization and geopolitics in the Middle East : old games, new rules

Introduction: Globalization and Geopolitics in the Middle East 1. Globalization: System or Process? 2. Globalization and Strategic Interdependence 3. The MENA Regional System in Crisis 4. Geopolitical Tectonics: GME on the Margins of Eurasia 5. Government and Governance in the Era of Globalization 6. Economic Internationalization and the Changing Balance of Economic Power in the Middle East 7. Culture Clash: Globalization and the Geopolitics of Identity in the Middle East 8. Globalization and International Politics of the GME 9. Globalization and the Middle East in Perspective

Islam, Muslim polities and democracy

Since 11 September 2001 (‘9/11’) the international spotlight has been more firmly than ever on the Muslim world, and its Middle East heartland in particular. All aspects of life in Muslim societies – history, educational system, attitudes towards the West, gender relations, cultural underpinnings, political and economic systems, demography, foreign relations – have been pored over by policy commentators and analysts in attempts to unearth the root causes of Islamist militancy against the West. Using the tools of political economy and social movement theories this analysis will debate the complex set of issues underlining many aspects of the ‘Islam and democracy’ debate, which today is very much about the relationship between Islam and governance. Indeed, as the debate itself since ‘9/11’ has been increasingly shaped by priorities of western actors, whose traditional interests in the Muslim Middle East are now being driven by concerns about international stability, Muslims have tended to adopt an even more sceptical posture. Whether forced democratization can be effectively administered adds a new and interesting twist to the debates surrounding Islam and democracy, adding new dimensions to the already tangible impact of geopolitical factors on Muslim polities.

Turkey's Growing Relations with Iran and Arab Middle East

During its final two centuries, the Ottoman Empire failed to introduce an “exit strategy” from the Middle East. On account of this uneasy disengagement, Republican Turkey turned back and followed an anti-revisionist policy toward the region. In the 1920s, the revolutionary leadership of the Turkish Republic focused on internal reformation and modernization programs, which made a structural transformation in domestic politics and systemic change that further forced Turkish governments not to pursue an active policy in the region. During the Cold War, Turkeys Middle East policy was not viewed as friendly toward the Middle East while there was a strong security ties with Iran, especially in Central Treaty Organization. However, Turkey followed a more aggressive and coercive entrance strategy toward the region by the end of the Cold War. The Justice and Development Party has made a shift and attempted to exercise soft power policies to normalize its relations with Arab nations and Iran by improving societal and economic interdependence relations. In order to understand the new activism in Turkish–Iranian relations, it is necessary to provide a historical context of the changing dynamic of regional politics by analyzing threat perceptions and security alignments from the perspective of developing Turkish–Iran relations.

Iran-Iraq Relations after Saddam

Irans leaders will struggle to balance the adventurous tendencies in Iran that desire to take advantage of the confusion in Iraq with the cautious instincts of the majority who wish to avoid danger.

The Non-Arab Middle East States and the Caucasian/Central Asian Republics: Iran and Israel:

the level of their regional profiles and their bilateral relations with the CCARs. Both Iran and Israel have played major roles in the evolution of the post-1945 Middle East, even as they were obliged to come to terms with the Arab-centric character of that evolution. Over this period they have moved from being allies to enemies yet it was never predicted that their paths should cross in the southern heartland of the former Soviet Union as they do today.

Tehran's Tocsin

How will Iran respond? Although it is one of the “target” countries, Iran has few realistic military options. A political card, however, might be played.

The Non-Arab Middle East States and the Caucasian/Central Asian Republics: Turkey

as a region of states in its own right has brought with it new inter-state relations as well as internal dilemmas. The developing strategic, political and economic ties between the Asian republics and three of their most eager potential friends Turkey, Iran and Israel form the subject matter of this and a further article which will be published in the April 1994 issue of this journal. For these three countries, all linked by their non-Arab status in the Middle East, yet equally at odds over their respective roles in that region, Central Asia and the Caucasus represent realms of opportunity and threat, with potential repercussions for the entire Middle East, including the Arab system therein. This first article focuses on Turkey for two reasons. Firstly, Turkey is the Middle Eastern state closest ethnically, linguistically and culturally to the Turkic republics of the former Soviet Union. Secondly, Ankara sees itself as the rightful inheritor of Russian influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia,

Saudi Arabia as a Resurgent Regional Power

ABSTRACT Ever since the 1980s, the MENA subsystem has been weakening under the weight of persistent inter-state conflict, violent non-state and sub-state actor incursions, and intense competition for influence and geopolitical advantage amongst its core states. Furthermore, a domino-like collapse of autocratic regimes across the Arab region after 2010 heralded an unprecedented level of disorder, insecurity and chaos. Regional disorder and the general crisis of the state in the Arab region has aggravated regional fragmentation and has at the same time emboldened Saudi Arabia and a small group of its neighbours to adopt a more interventionist, and at times belligerent foreign policy posture. The region’s changing dynamics provide the backdrop for closer analysis of Saudi responses to the regional crisis, which itself has been shaped by the changing of the guard in the Kingdom in 2015. The change is marked by an intensification of Saudi activism and a deepening of its role as a resurgent regional power.