Steven Wright

Political change in the Arab oil monarchies: from liberalization to enfranchisement

The oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf region have typically been portrayed as patriarchal autocracies characterized by traditional tribal rule that have taken on the characteristics of a modern state. The historical debate on these rentier states has centered on how their substantial oil income since the 1970s has allowed them to pacify their citizenry from making demands for enfranchisement. Power was thus firmly able to rest with the elites. Since the end of the Cold War, winds of change flamed the desire for reform and the late 1990s saw significant political changes. The empirical data indicates that this pace has increased, albeit at differential speeds, within the context of the post-9/11 war on terror. Interestingly, this has been the case despite turmoil in Iraq and a shift to the right in Iranian politics. The fundamental drivers of reform in the Arab oil monarchies continue to be the ruling elites themselves, however. The character of the reforms does appear to be mainly liberalizing rather than democratizing, but developments in some oil monarchies suggest that this process can be viewed as an early or intermediate stage of a wider enfranchisement of civil society.

Fixing the Kingdom: Political Evolution and Socio-Economic Challenges in Bahrain

Center for International and Regional Studies at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar

Qatar: The Context of a Hydrocarbon-Funded Social Contract

The influence of civil society on the governance of Qatar’s natural gas sector appears to be growing, but it still remains marginal. According to this chapter, the primary civil-society actors are found in academia, think-tanks and NGOs, followed by companies engaged in joint ventures. The mass media have a lesser bearing, but within the social media, the government has shown itself responsive to societal concerns about how resources are managed and allocated. Political parties and trade unions are currently illegal in Qatar, but their part in influencing how revenues are used may change in the future if the constitution is fully implemented and an elected legislative chamber is established. Especially pertinent is the role of extended tribal family networks, whose concerns or opinions on the perceived mismanagement of oil and gas revenues are expressed through informal channels. The marginal role of civil society is changing, however, as awareness about how energy wealth is spent has grown. Access to statistics, social media and government as well as non-governmental reports has fostered greater civil awareness and feedback on petroleum revenue expenditure. A notable feature of the way that Qatar’s petroleum revenues have been used is the considerable government investment in promoting the country’s international standing, by hosting international events, establishing subsidiaries of well-known Western academic institutions and creating the Al Jazeera media network. Thus, it seems paradoxical that Qatari civil society is still little engaged in the formulation of petroleum policy.

Iran’s Relations with Bahrain

Wright argues that given its size and strategic location, Bahrain has always been vulnerable to its more powerful neighbours, with each vying for power or influence. This has resulted in a history of successive external powers exercising a controlling influence. Historically, Iran’s perspective on Bahrain was that the island had invariably been a part of Persia, except during the Portuguese occupation from 1507 to 1622. The main theme of this chapter is that the vast majority of Shiite-Bahrainis are primarily guided by their national and tribal identity, which afforded loyalty to the state, though some did succumb to the influence of transnational Shiite clerics based in Iraq, Syria or Iran. The majority of Shiite-Bahrainis, as elsewhere, look to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani as the source of religious guidance. Wright’s main conclusion is that the impact of the Iranian revolution was not uniform. The Bahraini society should be understood as a heterogeneous one, rather than a simple interpretation of being Sunni and Shiite.

The Dynamics of Energy Geopolitics in the Gulf and Qatar’s Foreign Relations with East Asia

Five GCC countries have developed shortages of natural gas, while Qatar possesses the third largest reserves of natural gas globally, and yet no meaningful GCC-wide gas network exists. Qatar’s commercially grounded energy policy together with a reluctance to enter into an energy-dependent status with a close neighbour understandably favours high East Asian above the discounted rate demanded by GCC states. As a result, natural gas geopolitics has prompted Qatar to take on a global energy policy resulting in an increased integration with Asian states. The focus of this paper is to assess the dynamics of the regional energy market of the GCC, how existing tensions foster Qatar’s increased interconnectivity with East Asia, and the resulting impact on traditional international alliances with Europe and North America.