Anssi Ahtikoski

Use of decision analysis interviews to support the sustainable use of the forests in Finnish Upper Lapland

Controversy between alternative uses of forests in Finnish Upper Lapland has been going on for decades, and in recent years it has been escalated to a serious conflict. The core of the conflict is the adverse impacts of forestry on old forests which are important grazing areas for reindeer and which are regarded as intact nature and wilderness areas. This paper describes the experiences of applying multi-criteria decision analysis interview approach on this conflict. The approach provides tools for structuring the problem and preferences of the stakeholders as well as for analyzing the effects of different alternatives in a common framework. We focus on the practical experiences gained from the application of this approach in this context. Multi-criteria decision analysis was found to be a useful approach to evaluate the economic, ecological and cultural aspects of this intense conflict. The obtained experiences also support the view that the approach works best when tightly integrated into the planning process.

Profitability of alternative management regimes in Scots pine stands on drained peatlands

In drained, forested peatlands, ditch network maintenance (DNM) is often considered necessary for tree growth, but it also constitutes additional management costs. Commercial thinnings, in turn, in addition to their silvicultural benefits, are generally applied to enhance the financial performance of stand management but results from peatland stands are scarce. In this study, our aim was to find financially feasible management practices for Scots pine-dominated stands on drained peatland sites in Finland. Using mainly inventory data sets, we compiled altogether 29 typical model-stands for four climatic areas, four site types, and two stand conditions according to need for silvicultural care. We used MOTTI stand simulator to predict the development of the model-stands according to different management regimes consisting of various combinations of 0–2 DNM and 0–2 thinnings with different timings and thinning intensities. We then calculated and compared the financial feasibility of the regimes using net present value (NPV; discount rate 3%) analysis. The separate effect of DNM on the profitability was marginal, but the positive effect of thinnings was clear. The harvesting removals varied within a wide range, depending on the timing and intensity of thinnings, but on average, the NPV doubled due to the thinnings. In the stands of initially good silvicultural condition, regimes including only one thinning and a DNM operation generally displayed a good financial result. In the stands of initially poor silvicultural condition due to neglected early care, regimes with two thinnings produced the best NPV regardless of the often low-yielding first thinning.

Financial performance of using genetically improved regeneration material of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Finland

The financial viability of using improved seed material of Scots pine was assessed in Finnish conditions. Based on a few dozen field trials, a range of genetic gains for height growth was incorporated into a stand simulator. Technically genetic gain was modelled into individual growth models by applying the Chapman-Richards type function and using genetic gain estimates as asymptotic scaling parameters. Stand projections, including the effect of genetic gain, were further converted into monetary terms by calculating bare land values, i.e. BLVs according to the Faustman rotation model. Following this, the financial attractiveness of using improved seed material from Scots pine was determined by comparing the BLVs between stands with and without genetic gain. The study focused on the private forest owner’s point of view, reflecting the primary demand conditions for improved seed material. Comparisons between BLVs indicated that using improved seed material of Scots pine would be financially viable for private forest owners in most parts of Finland, the discount rate being 3%. The main results were robust, with pertinent changes in silvicultural costs and stumpage prices. This study demonstrates the need for financial analysis in decision-making in the context of regeneration material.

Water protection and buffer zones: How much does it cost to reduce nitrogen load in a forest cutting?

Abstract Uncut buffer zones between clear-cuttings and water bodies can reduce export of nutrients to surface waters, but decrease in harvested stock volume result in losses of income for the landowner. Thinning in the buffer zones increases the income, but the effect of thinning on nutrient export is not well known. The FEMMA ecosystem model was applied to simulate nitrogen (N) export from a catchment with clear-cuttings and buffer zones. FEMMA is a spatially semi-distributed model calculating water and nitrogen fluxes in a scale of head-water catchments. The calibrated FEMMA model was applied to produce scenarios with different thinning intensities in buffer zones of varying dimensions. Reductions in N export achieved with buffer zones were computed for a 5-year period following the cutting. The economic current value of the stand left in the buffer zone represented an opportunity cost of the buffer zone. The unit cost of N reduction (€kg−1 N reduced) calculated from these simulations ranged from €219 to €1578 kg−1 N. A similar reduction in N export could be achieved with different combinations of buffer zone dimension and thinning intensity, but the unit costs of N reduction differed remarkably. The results indicate that cost-effective water protection can be achieved when the dimension of buffer zone and the intensity of thinning are optimized. Experimental research is warranted to verify these simulation results.

Scots pine stand establishment with special emphasis on uncertainty and cost-effectiveness, the case of northern Finland.

The effect of uncertainty on the cost-effectiveness of alternative chains of stand establishment in northern Finland was examined. The data were from a reforestation study of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) consisting of 288 sample plots, which were measured with respect to regeneration success. The study design included four site-preparation methods (patch scarification, ploughing, prescribed burning and disk trenching) combined with three reforestation methods (sowing, planting with containerized seedlings and planting with bare-rooted transplants). Initial reforestation density was 2,500 spots or seedlings per hectare, and the regeneration success was modeled as probability with two thresholds, namely 500 and 1,100 saplings. On formerly spruce-dominated as well as pine-dominated sites the most cost-effective chain was ploughing and planting with containerized seedlings, when threshold was 1,100 saplings per hectare. However, with threshold of 500 saplings the best performer was ploughing and direct sowing on both sites.

Cost-benefit analysis of using orchard or stand seed in Scots pine sowing, the case of northern Finland

A cost-benefit analysis of orchard seed versus seed from existing natural stands is presented for the scenario of direct sowing of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). The differential benefits of orchard seed are seed quality and improved yield due to genetic gain. These benefits are expected to further reduce the total cost of orchard seed. Seedlings from seed orchard seed had 11% better survival rate (p < .001, the best clone over 17%, p < .010) than seedlings from local stand seed. This was observed in a case study of 15 young seeding trials located in Central and North Finland. Expected yield improvements for stands established with orchard seed were obtained from local progeny test results, and they were further simulated on tree growth using the MELA forest simulation program. The cost-benefit analysis showed that, with a 7% yield improvement and a 15% better seed quality, the net cost of orchard seed was less than that of stand seed (discount rate 3%).

Cost-Efficiency of Alternative Forest Conservation Targets, a Case Study from Finland

Temporal contracts to protect biodiversity in forests are a recent approach which has shown to be a promising and cost-efficient procedure. With respect to cost-efficiency of temporal contracts the relevant issue is the goal of conservation: for instance, are we interested in enhancing CWD index (coarse woody debris) or increasing the amount of dead wood in forests? This study focuses on demonstrating the effect of conservation goal (either enhancing CWD index or increasing the amount of dead wood) on costefficiency by optimization. Further, we analyze whether both the length of temporal conservation (10 or 30 years) and discount rate (2% or 4%) would have an effect on optimal solutions. The data consisted of 20 measured forest sites with stand age between 60 and 160 years. Majority of the stands (80%) fulfilled the biological conservation criteria of the Finnish Forest Biodiversity Programme METSO and a few of the stands were managed commercial forests. For temporal conservation (either 10 or 30 years), stand growth and dynamics of decaying wood were forecasted with a stand simulator (Motti) by prolonging the clear-cut with 10 or 30 years. The results for the two alternative conservation periods were compared to business-as-usual, BAU, with respect to income losses. Then, for ecological responses the initial, measured stand characteristics were set for the baseline to which temporal conservation alternatives (10 or 30 years) were compared to. The results of optimization distinctively demonstrated that the conservation goal has a relevant effect on the cost-efficiency. Further, the length of the conservation period has also an important role in cost-efficiency whereas the discount rate plays only a minor role in this study context. In the optimal solutions the forest sites with distinctively above-average initial amount of dead wood and excellent growth predictions which imply lower than average income losses due to conservation shone through with respect to cost-efficiency. As a word of caution, it should be pointed out that if one merely chooses the most cost-efficient sites for conservation, there is a possibility that a desirable level of biodiversity might not be fulfilled. To test this, the study needs to be next extended to landscape level with larger data input.

Esitutkimus rankahakkeen keinokuivaukseen perustuvan hankintaketjun kustannuskilpailukyvystä

Seloste artikkelista: Laitila J., Ahtikoski A., Repola J., Routa J. (2017). Pre-feasibility study of supply systems based on artificial drying of delimbed stem forest chips. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 4 article id 5659. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.5659

Tiheiköt hyötykäyttöön? – Hieskoivikoiden kasvatusvaihtoehtojen kannattavuus turvemailla

Seloste artikkelista Niemisto P., Kojola S., Ahtikoski A., Laiho R. (2017). From useless thickets to valuable resource? – Financial performance of downy birch management on drained peatlands. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 3 article id 2017. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.2017

Raaka-aineita, hiilensidontaa ja bioenergiaa – Suomen metsien monet mahdollisuudet

Luonnonvarojen kestävän hyödyntämisen kannalta on elintärkeää siirtyä maailmanlaajuisesti hyödyntämään uusiutuvia raaka-aineita uusiutumattomien sijaan. Suomessa metsät ovat tärkein uusiutuvan raaka-aineen lähde eikä puusta ole tällä hetkellä pulaa. Metsät kasvavat paljon enemmän kuin puuta käytetään. Puunkäytön lisäämisen pullonkaulana, niin nyt kuin lähitulevaisuudessakin, on puun riittävyyden sijaan sen saatavuus ja kilpailukyky raaka-aineena. Miten uusiutuva raaka-aine otetaan talteen metsästä ja edelleen valmistetaan tuotteiksi niin kannattavasti, että toiminta on globaalisti kilpailukykyistä, ja voisi siten korvata uusiutumattomien raaka-aineiden käyttöä? Taloudellinen kannattavuus ei pelkästään takaa puun saatavuutta, vaan lisäksi raaka-ainetuotannon on oltava ekologisesti ja sosiaalisesti kestävää sekä yleisesti hyväksyttävää. Metsien käsittelyllä voidaan vaikuttaa siihen, miten puuraaka-aineen saatavuutta edistetään kestävällä ja hyväksyttävällä tavalla. Vuosikymmenien aikana tehty tutkimustyö ja myös käytännön kokemukset ovat selvästi osoittaneet, että intensiivisellä metsänhoidolla voidaan tehostaa raaka-ainetuotantoa 1) lisäämällä puuntuotosta pinta-alayksikköä kohti, 2) ohjaamalla puun raaka-aineominaisuuksia haluttuun suuntaan ja 3) pienentämällä metsänhoidon ja puunkorjuun yksikkökustannuksia. Oikein mitoitettuna ja kohdennettuna tehostetut metsänkäsittelytoimet täyttävät myös kestävyyskriteerit. Suomen metsävarojen tulevaisuuden tuotantopotentiaalia selvitettiin FIBIC Oy:n EffFibre-tutkimusohjelmassa. FIBIC Oy (Finnish Bioeconomy Cluster Oy, entinen Metsäklusteri Oy) on yksi Suomen kuudesta strategisen huippuosaamisen keskittymästä. EffFibre-tutkimusja kehittämisohjelman tavoitteena on kasvattaa kotimaisen puuraaka-aineen saatavuutta ja puuntuotannon kustannustehokkuutta sekä parantaa koko klusterin kilpailukykyä kehittämällä radikaalisti uudenlaisia energiatehokkaita ja resursseja säästäviä tuotantoteknologioita. Skenaarioeli ennustetutkimuksen avulla selvitettiin metsävarojen ja metsien hoidon mahdollisuudet vaikuttaa tulevaisuudessa saatavan raakaaineen määrään ja laatuun. Tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin puuntuotantomahdollisuuksia monipuolisesti eri näkökulmista. Raaka-aineen määrän ja laadun ohella tarkasteltiin metsänkäsittelyvaihtoehtojen vaikutuksia metsänkasvatuksen kannattavuuteen metsänomistajan näkökulmasta. Näiden lisäksi tarkasteltiin teollisuus-, työllisyysja ilmastovaikutuksia. Tavoitteena oli myös selvittää puuntuotannon alueellisia mahdollisuuksia ja edellytyksiä.