Anthony J. Pellechio

Social Security and Household Wealth Accumulation: New Microeconomic Evidence

The social security program will pay benefits of more than

The Two-Part Tariff and Voluntary Market Participation

100 billion in 1978. Public transfers on this scale are large enough to have profound effects on the behavior of the U.S. economy. The most important effect, although not the only one, is likely to be the impact of social security on private saving and aggregate capital accumulation. The present paper contributes to the analysis of this issue by providing new evidence on the extent to which the accumulation of wealth by individual households responds to differences in social security benefits.

Using the Balance Sheet Approach in Surveillance: Framework, Data Sources, and Data Availability

I. Introduction, 571. — II. The two-part tariff, 573. — III. Disconnection, 575. — IV. Specific functions and simulation, 577. — V. Conclusion, 583. — Appendix A, 584. — Appendix B, 585.

Sovereign Borrowing Cost and the IMF's Data Standards Initiatives

Recent improvements in statistical methodologies and data availability are facilitating detailed, high-frequency, timely macroeconomic balance sheet analysis. This paper provides practical instruction on how to design the framework to analyze vulnerabilities in a country as well as an overview of data sources that can be employed for this analysis. The paper also discusses how these new datasets are enhancing surveillance activities related to balance sheet vulnerabilities.

Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Issues in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

The effects of the IMFs data standards initiatives on sovereign borrowing costs in private capital markets are investigated for 26 emerging market and developing countries. Stable and significant panel econometric estimates indicate that subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) reduces launch spreads by an average of 20 percent while participation in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) reduces spreads for those countries with access to capital markets by an average of 8 percent. These estimates correspond to discounts of some 50 and 20 basis points, respectively. Evidence of similar discounts is also found when launch yields are analyzed.

Data Consistency in IMF Publications: Country Staff Reports Versus International Financial Statistics

The fiscal position of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) has deteriorated significantly in recent years, resulting in sharp increases in public debt. The sustainability of public debt is examined using the public sector budget constraint to derive the maximum public-debt-to-GDP ratio that can be sustained based on a countrys projected steady-state primary balance, interest rate on public debt, and economic growth rate. In this context, government deficits and debt in several ECCU member countries appear unsustainable, posing a risk to the stability of the currency union. A critical issue facing member countries is to implement fiscal policies consistent with sustainable public finances and debt to underpin the currency union.

Equivalence of the Production and Consumption Methods of Calculating the Value-Added Tax Base: Application in Zambia

Data published in IMF country staff reports and International Financial Statistics (IFS) may differ for identical variables and, at times, users may be unaware of the reasons for these differences and lack the information needed to permit reconciliation. Such discrepancies stem principally from differences in the objectives of IMF country staff reports and their data requirements, on the one hand, and IFS, on the other. This paper presents the results of a study of the consistency of annual data on core statistical indicators required for Fund surveillance presented in the IMFs IFS and a sample of recently published Article IV consultation reports. The paper finds a significant incidence of apparent discrepancies for similarly defined variables.

Social Security Wealth: The Impact of Alternative Inflation Adjustments

Two methods of calculating the value-added tax (VAT) base, using production and consumption data, respectively, have been applied in different countries to estimate VAT revenue. It is not apparent that these methods should produce the same result for a particular country because each method requires different adjustments for exemptions. This paper establishes analytically the equivalence of the two methods. Both methods are applied to Zambia. Given the limitations of data, the two methods produce different results, yielding an estimated range for VAT revenue of 2-3 percent of GDP in 1995. Actual VAT revenue collected fell within this range.