Anthony K. Metcalf

Effect of Dysphasia and Dysphagia on Inpatient Mortality and Hospital Length of Stay: A Database Study

OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of dysphasia and dysphagia on stroke outcome.

The SOAR Stroke Score Predicts Inpatient and 7-Day Mortality in Acute Stroke

Background and Purpose— An accurate prognosis is useful for patients, family, and service providers after acute stroke. Methods— We validated the Stroke subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification, Age, and prestroke Rankin stroke score in predicting inpatient and 7-day mortality using data from 8 National Health Service hospital trusts in the Anglia Stroke and Heart Clinical Network between September 2008 and April 2011. Results— A total of 3547 stroke patients (ischemic, 92%) were included. An incremental increase of inpatient and 7-day mortality was observed with increase in Stroke subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification, Age, and prestroke Rankin stroke score. Using a cut-off of ≥3, the area under the receiver operator curves values for inpatient and 7-day mortality were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. Conclusions— A simple score based on 4 easily obtainable variables at the point of care may potentially help predict early stroke mortality.

Prior antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy and mortality in stroke

Objective To examine the influence of previous antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy on subsequent stroke mortality at different time points up to 1 year post stroke. Design Data were examined from a hospital register collected over 5 years (2004–2008). Setting A single large university hospital. Participants Every adult (18+ years) admitted with an acute stroke. Main outcome measures Mortality risks at 7, 30, 60, 90 and 365 days were assessed using logistic regression following ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, adjusting for age, gender, premorbid Rankin and stroke type. Results 3308 patients with first or recurrent stroke were included (53% women, mean age 77.7±11.5 years, 86% ischaemic stroke). One-year mortality was 35.2% (999) for ischaemic stroke and 48.3% (227) for haemorrhagic stroke. Compared with no previous therapy, the mortality following ischaemic stroke for those already receiving antiplatelets or anticoagulants was not associated with increased mortality at any time points up to 1 year after presentation in the fully adjusted model. However, patients with haemorrhagic stroke had a worse prognosis at all time points after standard risk factor adjustment. For patients who used aspirin or warfarin prior to haemorrhagic stroke compared with no use, ORs (95% CIs) were 1.31 (0.64 to 2.68) and 2.91 (1.23 to 6.89) for 7 days, 2.36 (1.18 to 4.71) and 2.37 (1.00 to 5.61) for 30 days, 2.18 (1.10 to 4.29) and 2.86 (1.20 to 6.84) for 60 days, 2.56 (1.27 to 5.13) and 2.82 (1.16 to 6.86) for 90 days and 1.67 (0.89 to 3.12) and 2.44 (1.06 to 5.62) for 365 days. Conclusions Prior antiplatelet or anticoagulant use was associated with increased mortality following HS but not IS after adjustment for common factors associated with a poor prognosis. The reasons for this poor prognosis and potential therapeutic options need exploring in future studies.

Evaluation of stroke services in Anglia stroke clinical network to examine the variation in acute services and stroke outcomes

BackgroundStroke is the third leading cause of death in developed countries and the leading cause of long-term disability worldwide. A series of national stroke audits in the UK highlighted the differences in stroke care between hospitals. The study aims to describe variation in outcomes following stroke and to identify the characteristics of services that are associated with better outcomes, after accounting for case mix differences and individual prognostic factors.Methods/DesignWe will conduct a cohort study in eight acute NHS trusts within East of England, with at least one year of follow-up after stroke. The study population will be a systematically selected representative sample of patients admitted with stroke during the study period, recruited within each hospital. We will collect individual patient data on prognostic characteristics, health care received, outcomes and costs of care and we will also record relevant characteristics of each provider organisation. The determinants of one year outcome including patient reported outcome will be assessed statistically with proportional hazards regression models. Self (or proxy) completed EuroQol (EQ-5D) questionnaires will measure quality of life at baseline and follow-up for cost utility analyses.DiscussionThis study will provide observational data about health service factors associated with variations in patient outcomes and health care costs following hospital admission for acute stroke. This will form the basis for future RCTs by identifying promising health service interventions, assessing the feasibility of recruiting and following up trial patients, and provide evidence about frequency and variances in outcomes, and intra-cluster correlation of outcomes, for sample size calculations. The results will inform clinicians, public, service providers, commissioners and policy makers to drive further improvement in health services which will bring direct benefit to the patients.

Impact of Hemoglobin Levels and Anemia on Mortality in Acute Stroke: Analysis of UK Regional Registry Data, Systematic Review, and Meta‐Analysis

Background The impact of hemoglobin levels and anemia on stroke mortality remains controversial. We aimed to systematically assess this association and quantify the evidence. Methods and Results We analyzed data from a cohort of 8013 stroke patients (mean±SD, 77.81±11.83 years) consecutively admitted over 11 years (January 2003 to May 2015) using a UK Regional Stroke Register. The impact of hemoglobin levels and anemia on mortality was assessed by sex‐specific values at different time points (7 and 14 days; 1, 3, and 6 months; 1 year) using multiple regression models controlling for confounders. Anemia was present in 24.5% of the cohort on admission and was associated with increased odds of mortality at most of the time points examined up to 1 year following stroke. The association was less consistent for men with hemorrhagic stroke. Elevated hemoglobin was also associated with increased mortality, mainly within the first month. We then conducted a systematic review using the Embase and Medline databases. Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria. When combined with the cohort from the current study, the pooled population had 29 943 patients with stroke. The evidence base was quantified in a meta‐analysis. Anemia on admission was found to be associated with an increased risk of mortality in both ischemic stroke (8 studies; odds ratio 1.97 [95% CI 1.57–2.47]) and hemorrhagic stroke (4 studies; odds ratio 1.46 [95% CI 1.23–1.74]). Conclusions Strong evidence suggests that patients with anemia have increased mortality with stroke. Targeted interventions in this patient population may improve outcomes and require further evaluation.

The SOAR stroke score predicts hospital length of stay in acute stroke: an external validation study

The objective of this study is to externally validate the SOAR stroke score (Stroke subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification, Age and prestroke modified Rankin score) in predicting hospital length of stay (LOS) following an admission for acute stroke.

Pre-stroke modified Rankin scale: evaluation of validity, prognostic accuracy and association with treatment

Background and purpose The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was designed to measure poststroke recovery but is often used to describe pre-stroke disability. We sought to evaluate three aspects of pre-stroke mRS: validity as a measure of pre-stroke disability; prognostic accuracy and association of pre-stroke mRS scores, and process of care. Methods We used data from a large, UK clinical registry. For analysis of validity, we compared pre-stroke mRS against other markers of pre-stroke function (age, comorbidity index, care needs). For analysis of prognostic accuracy, we described univariable and multivariable models comparing pre-stroke mRS and other prognostic variables against a variety of outcomes (early and late mortality, length of stay, institutionalization, incident complications). Finally, we described association of pre-stroke mRS and components of evidence-based stroke care (early neuroimaging, admission to stroke unit, assessment of swallow). Results We analyzed data of 2,491 stroke patients. Concurrent validity analyses suggested statistically significant, but modest correlations between pre-stroke mRS and chosen variables (rho >0.40; p < 0.0001 for all). Every point increase of pre-stroke mRS was associated with poorer outcomes for our prognostic variables (unadjusted p < 0.001). This association held when corrected for other covariates. For example, pre-stroke mRS 4–5 odds ratio (OR): 6.84 (95% CI: 4.24–11.03) for 1 year mortality compared to mRS 0 in adjusted model. There was a difference between pre-stroke mRS and treatment, with higher pre-stroke mRS more likely to receive evidence-based care. Conclusion Results suggest that pre-stroke mRS has some concurrent validity and is a robust predictor of prognosis. This association is not explained by the influence of pre-stroke mRS on care pathways.

The shock index predicts acute mortality outcomes in stroke

BACKGROUND Shock index (SI) (ratio between heart rate and systolic blood pressure) has been shown to be associated with poor mortality outcomes in trauma and pneumonia; however it has yet to be examined in stroke. We aimed to examine the relationship between SI and acute outcomes of inpatient, 3-day and 7-day mortality in stroke. Secondly, we aimed to compare SI and systolic blood pressure (SBP) alone in predicting above outcomes. METHODS Data from a multicentre prospective cohort study conducted between October 2009 and September 2012 in eight NHS trusts in East of England were analysed. The relationships between SI, SBP and study outcomes were assessed using multivariable logistic regression models using mid-quintile groups as the reference category. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the discriminating ability between the SI and SBP models. RESULTS A total of 2121 stroke patients were included (47.4% men; mean age 77.10 (sd) 12.40) years. The lowest quintile of the SI, had an increased odds of 3-day and 7-day mortality, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.45 (95% CI:1.16-5.17) and 1.88 (1.01-3.49), respectively. Patients with the highest quintile of SI also had increased odds of in-patient, 3-day and 7-day mortality, AORs 1.85 (1.17-2.92), 2.18 (1.03-4.63) and 2.45 (1.34-4.49), respectively. Similarly, SBP had a U-shape relationship with mortality. All measures had an ROC area under the curve >0.8 but there was no difference in the discriminating ability between SI and SBP. CONCLUSIONS SI at extremely high and low values appeared to predict stroke mortality and appears to be particularly useful in predicting very early (3-day) mortality.

TIA, stroke and orthostatic hypotension: a disease spectrum related to ageing vasculature?

We sought to identify the determinants of orthostatic hypotension (OH) among patients referred to the transient ischaemic attack (TIA) clinic.

Predictors of orthostatic hypotension in patients attending a transient ischaemic attack clinic: database study.

Abstract Background. Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is common amongst the older population and is associated with morbidity and mortality. We sought to investigate predictors of OH to assist the clinician in identifying patients at risk. Methods and results. Database of 2696 patients attending a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) clinic between January 2006 and May 2009 was examined. Logistic regression models were constructed to determine clinical associates of OH. Demographics, co-morbidities, cardiovascular risk factors and medications were included in the multivariate models. Simple data mining models in the form of rule sets were developed for each component and they were assessed for predictive accuracy. The best models were validated on a smaller sample. Prevalence of OH was 22.3% in the TIA clinic population (50.6% men, mean 72 years; 49.4% women, mean 75 years). A significant postural drop in systolic blood pressure (BP) (≥ 20 mmHg) was more prevalent than a significant diastolic BP drop (≥ 10 mmHg). Isolated systolic hypertension was common (52.4%). Common factors predicting a significant systolic and diastolic BP fall were older age, previous TIA, being a current smoker, having diabetes and the use of beta-blockers. Both mean arterial and pulse pressure (MAP and PP) derived from supine BP were significantly associated with OH. Conclusions. OH should be assessed routinely in TIA clinics. MAP and PP may provide information on the predictability of OH.