Anthony T.H. Chin

AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND GOVERNMENT POLICY: THE ECONOMICS OF SINGAPORE'S VEHICLE QUOTA SCHEME

Rapid growth in real income in many countries of South-East Asia has led to large increases in the ownership and usage of automobiles. In many major cities this has resulted in chronic traffic congestion. Singapore has so far avoided the worst excesses of this problem, by a series of policy measures aimed at controlling automobile ownership as well as usage. In the latest moves (from 1990), a quantity rationing system has been introduced to impose close control on the number of additional automobiles allowed in Singapore, augmenting a battery of price-based policies introduced over the previous 15 yr. This paper examines the theoretical basis for this switch in the focus of policy, and presents an econometric investigation intended to evaluate the overall success of the programme in controlling the automobile population.

INFLUENCES ON COMMUTER TRIP DEPARTURE TIME DECISIONS IN SINGAPORE

Abstract This paper provides empirical evidence to support the widely held view that institutional factors such as official work start times and staggered working hours are powerful policy tools in traffic management and in influencing travel behaviour. This approach is to be preferred over continued investment in infrastructure given the scarcity of land in Singapore. A more efficient use of existing infrastructure could be achieved by spreading peak travel. Full utilisation of the Mass Rapid Transit will depend on changing the commuters perception on multi mode travel in addition to using public transport. While many studies have been carried out on modal choice, research on commuter trip departure decisions have been few and remain largely least understood. This paper employs multinomial logit and simultaneous nested logit analysis to model the choice of departure time (using household data collected in Singapore in 1983). Preliminary findings show that schedule delay, travel cost, and journey time to be important influences on commuters choice of trip departure time to work. Some difficulties are highlighted and suggestions for further research are made.

CONTAINING AIR POLLUTION AND TRAFFIC CONGESTION: TRANSPORT POLICY AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SINGAPORE

Land transportation remains one of the main contributors of noise and air pollution in urban areas. This is in addition to traffic congestion and accidents which result in the loss of productive activity. While there is a close relationship between traffic volumes and levels of noise and air pollution, transport authorities often assume that solving traffic congestion would reduce noise and air pollutant levels. Tight control over automobile ownership and use in Singapore has contributed in improving traffic flows, travel speeds and air quality. The adoption of internationally accepted standards on automobile emissions and gasoline have been effective in reducing air pollution from motor vehicles. Demand management measures have largely focused on controlling the source of traffic congestion, i.e. private automobile ownership and its use especially within the Central Business District during the day. This paper reviews and analyzes the effectiveness of two measures which are instrumental in controlling congestion and automobile ownership, i.e. road pricing and the vehicle quota scheme (VQS). While these measures have been successful in achieving desired objectives, it has also led to the spreading of traffic externalities to other roads in the network, loss in consumer welfare and rent seeking by automobile traders.

Firm‐specific characteristics and logistics outsourcing by Chinese manufacturers

This paper aims at understanding the firm‐specific determinants of logistics outsourcing in a transitional economy. Some hypotheses are made and tested based on a survey conducted in 2002. The results show that factors such as financial strength, production and industrial type, management level at which the logistics decision is made can significantly affect outsourcing decisions. Other factors such as number of employees and ownership type are considered as well. Some of our findings are different from previous studies that target at developed countries. Implications for practitioners and areas for future research are considered at the end.

Logistics service providers in China

Purpose – The article attempts to study the current status and future prospects of logistics providers in the whole country as well as a comparatively developed Chinese city (Tianjin); reveal the disparities between China and Tianjin, as well as local firms and their foreign counterparts; and identify the challenges faced by Chinese logistics providers and offer managerial implications for logistics providers in an increasingly competitive environment.Design/methodology/approach – This research is based on two surveys conducted in China and Tianjin, respectively, under the support from government authorities. Comparative analyses were conducted to ascertain the differences between logistics firms in China and developed countries, as well as regional differences within China.Findings – The results reveal that Chinese logistics providers depend heavily on transportation and warehousing businesses but lack value‐added services and logistics information management. Rate setting ranks highly in provider priori...

Developments in air transport: implications on investment decisions, profitability and survival of Asian airlines

The investment decisions and profitability of airlines encompasses elements such as air traffic forecasting, the cycles of orders and deliveries, profit cycles, airline growth and survivability in Asia. Regression analysis showed that air traffic growth rates are positively associated with GDP growth rates. The study of the cycles of aircraft orders and deliveries reveal that Asian carriers usually place orders for new aircraft a year after making good profits and these aircraft are delivered after 2–3 years. The delivery of aircraft results in over-capacity, and the decrease in load factors depresses airline profits. Economic cycles are amplified in the industry by capacity investments. The Markov Model was adapted to test the relationship between airline growth and profitability and to predict the survival probabilities of Asian carriers. The results of the study indicate that an airlines growth and profitability are positively related. The survival probabilities of airlines increase as asset size and profits increase. The key implications for Asian airlines are to improve their forecasting techniques, capacity flexibility and responsiveness to the changing environment.

Measuring port efficiency using bootstrapped DEA: the case of Vietnamese ports

ABSTRACT Standard data envelopment analysis (DEA) tends to be sensitive to the number of variables of a chosen sample, and it is unable to account for their random nature. Standard DEA can exhibit statistical inconsistency, biased results, and an arguable inference process. Thus, in this study, an efficiency evaluation method is used to overcome these limitations, especially since no studies of port efficiency have addressed this issue. This study applies bootstrapped DEA to a sample of the 43 largest Vietnamese ports and compares the results with those from stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and standard DEA. The results show that while the efficiency scores obtained from the three methods provide useful and consistent measures of the ports’ efficiency, they differ significantly. Furthermore, while the efficiency scores produced by bootstrapped DEA are consistent, unbiased, and not sensitive to the sample size, standard DEA and SFA yield efficiency scores that are much larger than bootstrapped DEA. In addition, bootstrapped DEA provides the confidence intervals for efficiency scores and allows for hypothesis tests of port performance.

THE IMPACTS OF THE ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISES ON ASIAN AIRLINES: SHORT-RUN RESPONSES AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS

The optimism shared by agencies such as IATA and the Air Transport Action Group on the growth in the demand for air travel has been temporarily derailed by the Asian economic crisis which appears to have dimmed the prospects for growth of many Asian carriers. Prospects for growth and expansion appeared to be excellent and were the driving force in setting the agenda for privatization, liberalization and the formation of new airlines. This paper discusses responses by Asian airlines with respect to redefining the scope of operations, capacity decisions, cost competitiveness, alliances and service decisions. It concludes with an argument that economic crisis appears to have shifted air transport policies in the direction of greater liberalization.

Impact of politics, economic events and port policies on the evolution of maritime traffic in Chinese ports

The Chinese government has been exploring various paths to find a direction that better suits China’s national conditions during the past 60 years. Meanwhile, a series of political and economic events and policy transformations have had different effects on the port industry. This article attempts to ascertain how these events and port policies have influenced Chinese port traffic through an empirical study on data covering 1952–2009. The findings suggest that foreign trade has been the prime driver of the throughput of Chinese ports. The increase in the ports’ throughput has enabled an increase in domestic demand and the urgent need for further port investment. Chinese port throughput has been subject to multiple shocks. The Great Leap Forward1 is found to have had the largest, but only a short-term impact. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, however, led to a longer and exclusive effect on ports, with little observed effect on the other variables. The reform of port governance is shown to have had a more lasting positive effect on port throughput than physical investment. However, these latter effects are minor, the economic and political factors remain the primary driving factors of port throughput.

Economic Management and Transition Towards a Market Economy: An Asian Perspective

Much attention has been focused in recent years on the transformation of the economies of Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet Union. However, a growing demand for policy advice, technical assistance and expertise is also coming from Asian reforming countries such as China, Mongolia, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. In addition, business communities abroad are increasingly interested in exploring investment and marketing opportunities in these reforming countries. Such developments are too important to overlook or ignore. The transformation of socialist economies towards market-based systems entails an unusually wide range of problems. Studies of related topics are complicated by the speed of the changes and the lack of clear historical precedents. Although the structural features of Asian reforming economies are in important ways different from those of the Eastern European economies, all socialist economies share similar fundamental conditions on the eve of economic reform which raise a similar set of reform issues. This volume brings together a collection of expertise and information in an attempt to shed some light on the transitional process in Asia. The contributions are by no means exhaustive. However, they provide the reader and analyst with an excellent starting point to the problems and prospects which are specific to Asian transforming economies.