Hian Teck Hoon

Growth, wealth and the natural rate: Is Europe's jobs crisis a growth crisis?

Abstract The effect of faster technical progress is studied in our labour-turnover model of the natual rate of unemployment. In its closed economy version, the model implies that, in the limit, as the steady-growth rate is approached, the increase in the rate of progress is neutral for the natural unemployment rate. Its effects are completely offset by the equal increase in the rate of interest it induces. However, of two small open economies having the same technology level at some date, the one where technical progress has always been and always will be faster will have the lower wealth relative to its wage and a lower wage rate relative to future wage rates. Both effects operate to reduce the natural rate of unemployment. Whether this theory-based hypothesis will be confirmed empirically is a question needing extensive study. But a quick comparison of the G7 countries confirms that the proportionate increase of the unemployment rate in recent decades tended to be greater the more pronounced the productivity slowdown.

Payroll Taxes and VAT in a Labor-Turnover Model of the 'Natural Rate'

We explore the effects of the tax structure in our version of the labor-turnover model of unemployment. We show that for a closed economy, a shift to increased payroll taxation offset by a lighter VAT rate raises the natural rate of unemployment. However, for a small open economy whose interest rate is given by the world rate, the tax shift is neutral for employment. Extending the analysis to a two-country world exhibiting free international capital mobility, we show that a tax shift in either one of the countries raises the natural rate in both economies.

Adjustment of wages and equilibrium unemployment in a Ricardian global economy

Abstract This paper develops a dynamic Ricardian model of the world economy exhibiting endogenous wages and equilibrium unemployment. It is shown that international trade serves to give workers an increased stake in job-holding, and, in general equilibrium, leads to higher real earnings and lower equilibrium unemployment. Economic shocks emanating in one country affect the trading partner’s equilibrium unemployment rate by shifting the terms of trade. The generality of the results are discussed along three dimensions: replacing efficiency wages with bargaining in labor market; introducing role for market sizes and factor proportion differences; and introducing firm-specific training to generate dynamics.

Comparative advantage and the equilibrium rate of unemployment

Abstract This paper develops a two-country Heckscher-Ohlin model with endogenous equilibrium involuntary unemployment to examine the question: Wat is the effect of free trade on the equilibrium rates of unemployment in the laborabundant and labor-scarce countries? It is shown that free trade leads to a decline in the equilibrium rate of unemployment in the labor-abundant country but to a rise in unemployment in the labor-scarce country.

Future Fiscal and Budgetary Shocks

We study here the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks on present levels of economic activity and real interest rates in a nonmonetary and possibly non-Ricardian economy. The paper first takes up an (unanticipated) temporary tax cut to be effective on a given future date—a delayed “debt bomb.” The sudden prospect of this future-dated shock causes at once a drop in the (unit) value placed on the firms’ business asset, the customer, and accordingly on the price of shares—with the result that the hourly wage, hours worked and GDP drop in tandem. This paradox of reduced activity through announcement of future “stimulus” does not hinge on an upward jump of long rates of interest, which may or may not occur: the short rate of return on shares is increased by the initial drop in their price, but the price has so much farther to fall that this is more than offset for a time by the expectation of ongoing capital loss, so short rates of interest actually drop. The paper next studies a future tax cut lacking a “sunset” provision and requiring instead a gradual welfare benefit adjustment to retain solvency. The same negative effects on present activity result. Third, the paper shows that if the tax cut is effective immediately, its effect is ambiguous, as the Marshallian supply-sider effect works the other way. Finally, the paper also examines the new anticipation of a future increase in the number of retirees in a pay-as-you-go social security program. In conclusion, juxtaposing these results against recent US experience, we hypothesize that the legislation of an unsustainable fiscal gap—the cuts in tax rates and the rise of future obligations owing to the cumulative deficit and the approaching bulge in retirement benefits—is an important cause of the decline in hours worked per employee and in the participation rates over the period.

Low-Wage Employment Subsidies in a Labor Turnover Model of the 'Natural Rate'

This paper models two kinds of wage subsidy in a model of the natural rate having a continuum of workers ranked by their productivity - a flat wage subsidy and a graduated wage subsidy, each financed by a proportional payroll tax. In the small open economy case, with the graduation as specified, we show that both schemes expand employment throughout the distribution; for those whose productivity is sufficiently far below the mean, take-home pay is unambiguously up, though the tax financing lowers take-home pay at the mean and above.

The impact of intraindustry trade on the natural rate of unemployment in two simple models

This paper builds in two popular versions of the theory of equilibrium unemployment into a world economy engaged purely in intraindustry trade of differentiated products. We show that free trade through increasing the range of varieties available for consumption and expanding economies of scale leads to a lowering of the equilibrium rates of unemployment in all participating countries. Thus, we demonstrate channels through which international trade alleviates the problem of high unemployment in each country engaged in pure intraindustry trade.

Trade, Jobs and Wages

The world’s increasing integration through trade and the persistence of high unemployment in Europe, and other areas of the world, highlight the need to understand the implications of free trade for unemployment. Trade, Jobs and Wages analyses how employment levels and real wages are affected by international trade. Popular trade theory disregards the impact of free trade on the rate of unemployment, since it assumes full employment at the outset. By focusing on the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment, Professor Hoon places an emphasis on real, as opposed to monetary, factors in accounting for long term trends in wages and unemployment.

Capital Expansion, Endogenous Growth and Equilibrium Unemployment

A model is developed, which captures the interactions of unemployment and economic growth in general equilibrium. The economy evolves along a correct-expectations equilibrium path exhibiting endogenous job rationing, and productivity growth is driven by installation of new capital. Under the maintained hypothesis that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is less than unity, unemployment benefits are shown to shift up the whole path of equilibrium unemployment, leaving the economy with a higher natural rate of unemployment and lowering the long-run growth rate permanently. Investment tax credits financed by lump sum taxes on total income are capable of lowering the natural rate and raising the economys growth rate.

Effects of Technological Improvement in the ICT-Producing Sector on Business Activity

It seems to be taken for granted by many commentators that the sharp decline in prices of computers, telecommunications equipment and software resulting from the technological improvements in the information and communications technology (ICT)-producing sector is good for jobs and is a major driving force behind the non-inflationary employment miracle and booming stock market in the latter half of the nineties in the U.S. and their recurrence since 2004. We show that, in our model, a technical improvement in the ICT-producing sector by itself cannot explain a simultaneous increase in employment and a rise in firms valuation (or Tobins Q ratio). There are two cases. If the elasticity of equipment price (pI ) with respect to ICT-producing sectors productivity is less than one, labors value marginal productivity increases thus pulling up the demand wage and expanding employment. However, the increased output by adding to the capital stock and thus driving down future capital rentals causes a decline in firms valuation, q per unit, even though Tobins Q (= q=pI ) is up. If the elasticity is greater than one, equipment prices fall so dramatically that labors value marginal productivity declines, employment in the ICT-using sector expands proportionately more than the increase in capital stock, thus raising future capital rentals, so both firms valuation and Tobins Q rise; but then real demand wage falls and employment contracts. The key to generating a booming stock market alongside employment expansion is to hypothesize that when technical improvement in the ICT-producing sector occurs, the market forms an expectation of future productivity gains to be reaped in the ICT-using sector. Then we can explain not only the stock market boom and associated rise in investment spending and employment in the period 1995-2000 but also the subsequent decline in employment, in Tobins Q and in investment spending in 2001, with consumption holding up well as productivity gains in the ICT-using sector were realized. An anticipation of a future TFP improvement in the ICT-using sector can once more play the role of raising the stock market.