Antoine Allard

Adaptive networks: Coevolution of disease and topology

Adaptive networks have been recently introduced in the context of disease propagation on complex networks. They account for the mutual interaction between the network topology and the states of the nodes. Until now, existing models have been analyzed using low complexity analytical formalisms, revealing nevertheless some novel dynamical features. However, current methods have failed to reproduce with accuracy the simultaneous time evolution of the disease and the underlying network topology. In the framework of the adaptive susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model of Gross [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 208701 (2006)]10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.208701, we introduce an improved compartmental formalism able to handle this coevolutionary task successfully. With this approach, we analyze the interplay and outcomes of both dynamical elements, process and structure, on adaptive networks featuring different degree distributions at the initial stage.

Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks.

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. By exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytical approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g., the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).

Heterogeneous bond percolation on multitype networks with an application to epidemic dynamics

Considerable attention has been paid, in recent years, to the use of networks in modeling complex real-world systems. Among the many dynamical processes involving networks, propagation processes-in which the final state can be obtained by studying the underlying network percolation properties-have raised formidable interest. In this paper, we present a bond percolation model of multitype networks with an arbitrary joint degree distribution that allows heterogeneity in the edge occupation probability. As previously demonstrated, the multitype approach allows many nontrivial mixing patterns such as assortativity and clustering between nodes. We derive a number of useful statistical properties of multitype networks as well as a general phase transition criterion. We also demonstrate that a number of previous models based on probability generating functions are special cases of the proposed formalism. We further show that the multitype approach, by naturally allowing heterogeneity in the bond occupation probability, overcomes some of the correlation issues encountered by previous models. We illustrate this point in the context of contact network epidemiology.

Global efficiency of local immunization on complex networks

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large databases and efficient analysis algorithms, these processes can be better predicted and controlled. In this study, we use different characteristics of network organization to identify the influential spreaders in 17 empirical networks of diverse nature using 2 epidemic models. We find that a judicious choice of local measures, based either on the networks connectivity at a microscopic scale or on its community structure at a mesoscopic scale, compares favorably to global measures, such as betweenness centrality, in terms of efficiency, practicality and robustness. We also develop an analytical framework that highlights a transition in the characteristic scale of different epidemic regimes. This allows to decide which local measure should govern immunization in a given scenario.

A system-level model for the microbial regulatory genome

Microbes can tailor transcriptional responses to diverse environmental challenges despite having streamlined genomes and a limited number of regulators. Here, we present data‐driven models that capture the dynamic interplay of the environment and genome‐encoded regulatory programs of two types of prokaryotes: Escherichia coli (a bacterium) and Halobacterium salinarum (an archaeon). The models reveal how the genome‐wide distributions of cis‐acting gene regulatory elements and the conditional influences of transcription factors at each of those elements encode programs for eliciting a wide array of environment‐specific responses. We demonstrate how these programs partition transcriptional regulation of genes within regulons and operons to re‐organize gene–gene functional associations in each environment. The models capture fitness‐relevant co‐regulation by different transcriptional control mechanisms acting across the entire genome, to define a generalized, system‐level organizing principle for prokaryotic gene regulatory networks that goes well beyond existing paradigms of gene regulation. An online resource (http://egrin2.systemsbiology.net) has been developed to facilitate multiscale exploration of conditional gene regulation in the two prokaryotes.

The geometric nature of weights in real complex networks

The topology of many real complex networks has been conjectured to be embedded in hidden metric spaces, where distances between nodes encode their likelihood of being connected. Besides of providing a natural geometrical interpretation of their complex topologies, this hypothesis yields the recipe for sustainable Internets routing protocols, sheds light on the hierarchical organization of biochemical pathways in cells, and allows for a rich characterization of the evolution of international trade. Here we present empirical evidence that this geometric interpretation also applies to the weighted organization of real complex networks. We introduce a very general and versatile model and use it to quantify the level of coupling between their topology, their weights and an underlying metric space. Our model accurately reproduces both their topology and their weights, and our results suggest that the formation of connections and the assignment of their magnitude are ruled by different processes.

The effect of a prudent adaptive behaviour on disease transmission

Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission . Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading disease to begin spreading faster. Indeed most features of real world social networks, e.g. clustering1,2 and community structure3, and of human behaviour, e.g. social distancing4 and increased hygiene5, will slow disease spread. Here, we consider a model where individuals with essential societal roles–e.g. teachers, first responders, health-care workers, etc.– who fall ill are replaced with healthy individuals. We refer to this process as relational exchange. Relational exchange is also a behavioural process, but one whose effect on disease transmission is less obvious. By incorporating this behaviour into a dynamic network model, we demonstrate that replacing individuals can accelerate disease transmission. Furthermore, we find that the effects of this process are trivial when considering a standard mass-action model, but dramatic when considering network structure. This result highlights another critical shortcoming in mass-action models, namely their inability to account for behavioural processes. Lastly, using empirical data, we find that this mechanism parsimoniously explains observed patterns across more than seventeen years of influenza and dengue virus data. We anticipate that our findings will advance the emerging field of disease forecasting and will better inform public health decision making during outbreaks.

Propagation dynamics on networks featuring complex topologies

Analytical description of propagation phenomena on random networks has flourished in recent years, yet more complex systems have mainly been studied through numerical means. In this paper, a mean-field description is used to coherently couple the dynamics of the network elements (such as nodes, vertices, individuals, etc.) on the one hand and their recurrent topological patterns (such as subgraphs, groups, etc.) on the other hand. In a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spread on social networks with community structure, this approach yields a set of ordinary differential equations for the time evolution of the system, as well as analytical solutions for the epidemic threshold and equilibria. The results obtained are in good agreement with numerical simulations and reproduce the behavior of random networks in the appropriate limits which highlights the influence of topology on the processes. Finally, it is demonstrated that our model predicts higher epidemic thresholds for clustered structures than for equivalent random topologies in the case of networks with zero degree correlation.

The Risk of sustained sexual transmission of Zika is underestimated

Pathogens often follow more than one transmission route during outbreaks—from needle sharing plus sexual transmission of HIV to small droplet aerosol plus fomite transmission of influenza. Thus, controlling an infectious disease outbreak often requires characterizing the risk associated with multiple mechanisms of transmission. For example, during the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, weighing the relative importance of funeral versus health care worker transmission was essential to stopping disease spread. As a result, strategic policy decisions regarding interventions must rely on accurately characterizing risks associated with multiple transmission routes. The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak challenges our conventional methodologies for translating case-counts into route-specific transmission risk. Critically, most approaches will fail to accurately estimate the risk of sustained sexual transmission of a pathogen that is primarily vectored by a mosquito—such as the risk of sustained sexual transmission of ZIKV. By computationally investigating a novel mathematical approach for multi-route pathogens, our results suggest that previous epidemic threshold estimates could under-estimate the risk of sustained sexual transmission by at least an order of magnitude. This result, coupled with emerging clinical, epidemiological, and experimental evidence for an increased risk of sexual transmission, would strongly support recent calls to classify ZIKV as a sexually transmitted infection.

The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870–2013

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870–2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channels, are such that the closer countries are in trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. The atlas provides us with information regarding the long-term evolution of the international trade system and demonstrates that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat but hyperbolic, as a reflection of its complex architecture. The departure from flatness has been increasing since World War I, meaning that differences in trade distances are growing and trade networks are becoming more hierarchical. Smaller-scale economies are moving away from other countries except for the largest economies; meanwhile those large economies are increasing their chances of becoming connected worldwide. At the same time, Preferential Trade Agreements do not fit in perfectly with natural communities within the trade space and have not necessarily reduced internal trade barriers. We discuss an interpretation in terms of globalization, hierarchization, and localization; three simultaneous forces that shape the international trade system.