Pierre-André Noël

Adaptive networks: Coevolution of disease and topology

Adaptive networks have been recently introduced in the context of disease propagation on complex networks. They account for the mutual interaction between the network topology and the states of the nodes. Until now, existing models have been analyzed using low complexity analytical formalisms, revealing nevertheless some novel dynamical features. However, current methods have failed to reproduce with accuracy the simultaneous time evolution of the disease and the underlying network topology. In the framework of the adaptive susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model of Gross [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 208701 (2006)]10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.208701, we introduce an improved compartmental formalism able to handle this coevolutionary task successfully. With this approach, we analyze the interplay and outcomes of both dynamical elements, process and structure, on adaptive networks featuring different degree distributions at the initial stage.

Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks.

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. By exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytical approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g., the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).

Heterogeneous bond percolation on multitype networks with an application to epidemic dynamics

Considerable attention has been paid, in recent years, to the use of networks in modeling complex real-world systems. Among the many dynamical processes involving networks, propagation processes-in which the final state can be obtained by studying the underlying network percolation properties-have raised formidable interest. In this paper, we present a bond percolation model of multitype networks with an arbitrary joint degree distribution that allows heterogeneity in the edge occupation probability. As previously demonstrated, the multitype approach allows many nontrivial mixing patterns such as assortativity and clustering between nodes. We derive a number of useful statistical properties of multitype networks as well as a general phase transition criterion. We also demonstrate that a number of previous models based on probability generating functions are special cases of the proposed formalism. We further show that the multitype approach, by naturally allowing heterogeneity in the bond occupation probability, overcomes some of the correlation issues encountered by previous models. We illustrate this point in the context of contact network epidemiology.

Protecting the Next Generation: What Is the Role of the Duration of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine-Related Immunity?

BACKGROUND There is strong evidence that human papillomavirus (HPV) is necessary for the development of cervical cancer. A prophylactic HPV vaccine with high reported efficacy was approved in North America in 2006. METHODS A mathematical model of HPV transmission dynamics was used to simulate different scenarios of natural disease outcomes and intervention strategies. A sensitivity analysis was performed to compensate for uncertainties surrounding key epidemiological parameters. RESULTS The expected impact that HPV vaccines have on cervical cancer incidence and HPV prevalence in the province of British Columbia in Canada revealed that, for lifelong vaccine-related protection, an immunization routine targeting younger females (grade 6), combined with a 3-year program for adolescent females (grade 9), is the most effective strategy. If vaccine-related protection continues for <10 years, then the targeting of adolescent females would be more beneficial than the targeting of younger females. The incremental benefit if boys, as well as girls, are vaccinated is small. CONCLUSIONS Optimization of the design of immunization strategies for treatment of HPV depends substantially on the duration of vaccine-induced immunity. Given the uncertainty in estimating this duration, it may be prudent to assume a value close to the lower limit reported and adjust the program when more-accurate information for the length of vaccine-induced immunity becomes available.

Controlling Self-Organizing Dynamics on Networks Using Models that Self-Organize

Controlling self-organizing systems is challenging because the system responds to the controller. Here, we develop a model that captures the essential self-organizing mechanisms of Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpiles on networks, a self-organized critical (SOC) system. This model enables studying a simple control scheme that determines the frequency of cascades and that shapes systemic risk. We show that optimal strategies exist for generic cost functions and that controlling a subcritical system may drive it to criticality. This approach could enable controlling other self-organizing systems.

Propagation dynamics on networks featuring complex topologies

Analytical description of propagation phenomena on random networks has flourished in recent years, yet more complex systems have mainly been studied through numerical means. In this paper, a mean-field description is used to coherently couple the dynamics of the network elements (such as nodes, vertices, individuals, etc.) on the one hand and their recurrent topological patterns (such as subgraphs, groups, etc.) on the other hand. In a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spread on social networks with community structure, this approach yields a set of ordinary differential equations for the time evolution of the system, as well as analytical solutions for the epidemic threshold and equilibria. The results obtained are in good agreement with numerical simulations and reproduce the behavior of random networks in the appropriate limits which highlights the influence of topology on the processes. Finally, it is demonstrated that our model predicts higher epidemic thresholds for clustered structures than for equivalent random topologies in the case of networks with zero degree correlation.

Bond percolation on a class of correlated and clustered random graphs

We introduce a formalism for computing bond percolation properties of a class of correlated and clustered random graphs. This class of graphs is a generalization of the configuration model where nodes of different types are connected via different types of hyperedges, edges that can link more than two nodes. We argue that the multitype approach coupled with the use of clustered hyperedges can reproduce a wide spectrum of complex patterns, and thus enhances our capability to model real complex networks. As an illustration of this claim, we use our formalism to highlight unusual behaviours of the size and composition of the components (small and giant) in a synthetic, albeit realistic, social network.

Structural preferential attachment: network organization beyond the link.

We introduce a mechanism which models the emergence of the universal properties of complex networks, such as scale independence, modularity and self-similarity, and unifies them under a scale-free organization beyond the link. This brings a new perspective on network organization where communities, instead of links, are the fundamental building blocks of complex systems. We show how our simple model can reproduce social and information networks by predicting their community structure and more importantly, how their nodes or communities are interconnected, often in a self-similar manner.

Propagation on networks: an exact alternative perspective

By generating the specifics of a network structure only when needed (on-the-fly), we derive a simple stochastic process that exactly models the time evolution of susceptible-infectious dynamics on finite-size networks. The small number of dynamical variables of this birth-death Markov process greatly simplifies analytical calculations. We show how a dual analytical description, treating large scale epidemics with a Gaussian approximation and small outbreaks with a branching process, provides an accurate approximation of the distribution even for rather small networks. The approach also offers important computational advantages and generalizes to a vast class of systems.

Quantifying dynamical spillover in co-evolving multiplex networks.

Multiplex networks (a system of multiple networks that have different types of links but share a common set of nodes) arise naturally in a wide spectrum of fields. Theoretical studies show that in such multiplex networks, correlated edge dynamics between the layers can have a profound effect on dynamical processes. However, how to extract the correlations from real-world systems is an outstanding challenge. Here we introduce the Multiplex Markov chain to quantify correlations in edge dynamics found in longitudinal data of multiplex networks. By comparing the results obtained from the multiplex perspective to a null model which assumes layers in a network are independent, we can identify real correlations as distinct from simultaneous changes that occur due to random chance. We use this approach on two different data sets: the network of trade and alliances between nation states, and the email and co-commit networks between developers of open source software. We establish the existence of “dynamical spillover” showing the correlated formation (or deletion) of edges of different types as the system evolves. The details of the dynamics over time provide insight into potential causal pathways.