Antonie J. Jetter

Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)‐based scenarios for wind energy

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, increasing emphasis is being placed on the use of scenario planning techniques because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based scenarios is a very new approach recently proposed in the literature. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate raw scenarios. Moreover a comparison of FCM based scenario development approach with other important techniques for developing quantitative scenarios is also presented.

Theoretical framework for managing the front end of innovation under uncertainty

A growing body of research suggests that the fuzzy front-end of product development should not be managed with a one-size-fits-all standard process. Instead, projects with different market and technical uncertainties should be managed with one of five different processes (linear, recursive, evolving, selectionism, trial-and-error). Based on a review of the literature, the paper develops a theoretical framework for frontend management which provides the foundation for ongoing empirical research.

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

ABSTRACT In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Product Planning: Using Stakeholder Knowledge to Achieve Corporate Responsibility

Many new products that were originally welcomed for addressing customer requirements and greater societal needs turn out to have severe negative consequences because product developers uncertain about or unaware of the of the far-reaching and indirect effects of their product designs on diverse stakeholders. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) aims to solve this problem by improving decision-makers knowledge about and empathy for stakeholder concerns. However, it does not provide systematic approaches for integrating and applying stakeholder knowledge into the product development process. To address this gap, this paper proposes a novel approach for bridging stakeholder engagement and product planning that is based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) modeling. The method helps product planners to systematically capture, understand, and assess stakeholder needs and their interdependencies. For illustration purposes, the method is used for planning alternative product concepts for renewable energy systems in an urban Eco District.

Heuristics in decision making

Heuristics are simple rules of thumbs for problem solving that follow a logic that is quite different from consequential logic. They have long been regarded, as an inferior technique for decision making that is the source of irrational decision behavior. Recently, decision making researchers have demonstrated that some heuristics are highly efficient and can compete with complex decision models in some application domains. This paper explores the different streams of research, summarizes the state of the art decision making model, and discusses its implications for complex decisions in engineering and technology management.

Explaining health technology adoption: Past, present, future

One of the most pressing challenges of healthcare innovation today is the lack of technology adoption. Research that improves our ability to understand, predict, and advance technology adoption in health care needs to be based on well-tested theories. With the interest to conduct high quality research in health technology adoption in future, this study reviews the theories used in this context to either identify the superior theory(ies) and or discover the issues that need resolution for improving future HTA researches. To do that, the most popular [1][2] social cognitive theories conceived over the past four decades are reviewed analytically from the perspective of their capacity to explain, predict and intervene in health technology acceptance, adoption and adherence. While all these theories are instrumental in conducting adoption studies, and some like UTAUT (Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology) are better than others at it, there is no perfect theory to study HTA. Literature repeatedly suggests that while utilizing general theories that have successfully passed the test of time could serve as a strong foundation, there is a compelling need for new and more empirical theories. There is a need for health researchers to expedite theoretical evolution by conducting comprehensive observation and rigorous evaluation to 1) manipulate and expand existing theories and or 2) create new theories that better address the specific needs and challenges of health technology application to enhance the utility and better reflect empirical findings. The structure of this paper is as follows. After summarizing the specifics of health technology innovations, the primary challenges in its acceptance are categorized. From there the body of this paper is dedicated to the review of most popular social cognitive theories, as depicted in Figure 1, from: 1) general human behavior repeatedly applied in healthcare studies and rooted HTA researches, and 2) theories dedicated to the study of technology acceptance behavior and applied as the prominent theories in studying HTA. Each theory is reviewed, followed by examples of its applications especially in modeling health technology adoption (HTA) behavior. Each theory is then evaluated based on the salient factors involved in the study of technology innovation in healthcare space in addition to the classical influencing concepts in technology adoption behavior. In the discussion section, these theories are compared and the applications studied are synthesized in the attempt to identify some of the best theories and state of the art practices used in the study of HTA. The conclusion section summarizes the findings of the literature and recommends best approaches for conducting empirical studies and planning effective processes that stimulate theoretical evolution in HTA and facilitate enhancement of acceptance of health technology innovations.

Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, scenario planning is an increasingly popular way to look at future environments because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)-based scenarios is a very new approach. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM-based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate FCM-based raw scenarios. Moreover, a comparison of FCM-based scenario development approach with other prominent quantitative scenario development techniques is also presented in this chapter.

Defining the Research Agenda: Technology Management as a Contributor to Service Sciences, Management and Engineering

SUMMARY “Technology Management” is a dynamically evolving discipline that integrates the technology-dominated “world of the engineer” with management. The field is distinguishable from its neighbor disciplines through characteristic research questions, specialized periodicals, and more than 200 educational programs. Currently, the field changes its face and increasingly focuses on the service industry. It thus reflects the blurring boundaries between “services” and “goods” companies and the service sector’s growing dependency on (information) technology. This paper describes these changes and presents contributions of Technology Management to SSEM. Based on these findings and a survey of industry needs in the “silicon forest”, it outlines an agenda for education and research. Technology Management Defined Technology Management (TM), also referred to as “Engineering management” has been characterized as the link among “engineering, science and management disciplines to plan, develop and implement technological capabilities to shape and accomplish the strategic and operational objectives of an organization” [12]. It thus encompasses two sets of activities (see fig. 1): (1) activities related to the innovation process, leading to new technologies (research, product and process development and commercialization), and (2) the activities that define a company’s “strategic make up” – the strategic integration of its technology strategy (definition of the technologies to engage in, including timing and resource commitment), its business strategy (markets to serve, and needed resources and organizational structures), and its financial strategies. Modern technologies are usually developed in industry, but the underlying scientific research is predominantly performed in universities. TM therefore researches efficient means for transferring technology from the research into the development domain (see (1) in fig. 1) that range from the design of educational programs to the creation of strategic research alliances. Research Development Commercialization Technology Strategy Business Strategy Financial Strategy Strategic Integration Innovation Process 1

Mergers and Acquisitions: Team Performance

Many mergers and acquisitions in high technology do not yield the expected results and acquired technologies fail to create value as planned. One explanation is the difficulty to transfer and integrate the tacit components of technological knowledge, when work groups and teams are disrupted. Mergers force work group and team members to redefine their roles, change their working approaches, and develop a shared vision and culture. The paper therefore researches high-tech mergers from a team perspective through an exploratory case study of two formerly separate quality assurance groups that were integrated into one. The case study identifies three factors that impact team performance after a merger: strong vision, clear communication, and operational synergy built on an open team culture and a common working approach.

Project management in product development: Toward a framework for targeted flexibility

As a discipline, project management has been accused of having lost its relevance for innovative initiatives because it emphasizes planning and control over the flexibility and learning-based strategies that are needed to succeed under uncertainty. Several authors therefore recommend adaptive project management practices - sometimes named “targeted flexibility” - that respond to project characteristics commonly found in innovation, namely novelty, complexity, speed and - as a result - uncertainty. This paper investigates how this proposed adaptation of project management occurs in a context with high levels of novelty that organizes work in projects and needs to accommodate projects of different pace, complexity and innovativeness: product development in small and medium enterprises that do research and development work in the same organizational unit. Results of a literature review and two exploratory studies, covering a total of 8 companies with multiple projects each, are presented. Implications for a future framework for targeted flexibility are developed, leading to the identification of the following needs for project management: (1) better understanding of the many ways in which project management impacts exploration and exploitation activities, (2) improved attention for the currently poorly supported pre-project and early initiation stages, (3) a shift of focus from monitoring against plans toward monitoring against achieved learning, and (4) the formulation of transition paths from current new product development practice to higher project management maturity.