Muhammad Amer

Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)‐based scenarios for wind energy

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, increasing emphasis is being placed on the use of scenario planning techniques because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based scenarios is a very new approach recently proposed in the literature. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate raw scenarios. Moreover a comparison of FCM based scenario development approach with other important techniques for developing quantitative scenarios is also presented.

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

ABSTRACT In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.

Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, scenario planning is an increasingly popular way to look at future environments because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)-based scenarios is a very new approach. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM-based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate FCM-based raw scenarios. Moreover, a comparison of FCM-based scenario development approach with other prominent quantitative scenario development techniques is also presented in this chapter.

Expert Judgment Quantification

Expert judgments are used when there are no objective data is available. It is critical to solicit these judgments accurately for decision makers. This chapter reviews methods and issues around the expert judgment quantification.

Use of Hierarchal Decision Modeling (HDM) for selection of graduate school for master of science degree program in engineering

The decision to select an appropriate graduate school is a critical decision for a student seeking this opportunity. This paper uses a Hierarchical Decision Model for the selection of an engineering graduate program from five graduate schools in Oregon. The paper includes a brief overview of each criterion used in the model. In addition, there is a brief description of the five universities which are considered as alternatives. The project report shows how the HDM was used to prioritize the alternatives. A Judgment Quantification Instrument (JQI) was developed to obtain pair-wise comparisons from various experts. Twelve experts responded to the instrument and their judgments were analyzed. Then, the paper explains how the calculations were made and final weights were computed. Finally, this project report also suggests future work that can be done to expand the model and to include other universities from the northwest and other states. Further modification of this model could allow it to be used for all different types of schools and programs, not just engineering or graduate programs.

Adoption & evaluation of personal health record (PHR) system

Personal Health Record (PHR) is an emerging web-based Healthcare IT System, which is a hot topic of discussion among healthcare professionals and many common people. Its a very new concept and many companies are offering PHR services to their customers. PHR is created and kept up-to-date by the user, healthcare providers or insurance companies. User can enter their information and manage their PHR. PHR can include everything from medical histories to test results, physicians notes, prescriptions and information from their pharmacies and insurance companies. Hence PHR empowers the patients and gives them full access to their healthcare data. Many employers, insurance companies, hospitals, and physicians are offering PHR services to their consumers. There are also many web-sites from where consumers can sign up for free PHRs services. Due to many benefits associated with PHR services, consumers find it very attractive to use PHR. But there are also many concerns hindering adoption of PHR. In this paper we shall review the factors affecting adoption of PHR systems using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and formulate hypothesis for PHR adoption.

Assessment and adoption of web-based health information systems

The Personal Health Record (PHR) is an emerging web-based healthcare IT system, which is a hot topic of discussion among healthcare professionals and many other people. It is a very new concept and many companies are now offering PHR services to their customers. The PHR is created and kept up to date by the user, healthcare providers or insurance companies. Users can enter their information and manage their PHR. The PHR can include everything from medical histories to test results, physicians notes, prescriptions and information from their pharmacies and insurance companies. Hence PHR empowers the patients and gives them full access to their healthcare data. Many employers, insurance companies, hospitals and physicians are offering PHR services to their consumers. There are also many websites from where consumers can sign up for free PHR services. Due to the many benefits associated with PHR services, consumers find it very attractive to use. But there are also many concerns hindering the adoption of PHR. In this paper we shall review the factors affecting adoption of PHR systems using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and formulate hypotheses for PHR adoption.

Assessment of Wind Potential in Kalar Kahar Region by Comparing On-Site Data with NREL Wind Resource Map of Pakistan

This chapter assesses the value of the wind resources in the Punjab area, Pakistan. Pakistan is an energy-deficient country having enormous potential of electricity generation from wind energy. Government of Pakistan (GoP) has taken firm measures to initiate wind power projects in Pakistan. A satellite mapping conducted by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL), USA estimated a gross potential of 132 GW that can be exploited to generate wind energy all across the country. The most promising wind corridor of Gharo‐Keti Bandar in southern coastal region offers a potential of 50 GW. The wind resource map developed by NREL also highlights wind potential in the upper Punjab and Balochistan. However, these regions are still not investigated and explored for wind potential due to unavailability of bankable wind data. Lack of credible wind resource data is considered the major reason towards underutilization of wind energy.

Technology and Science Policies in Transitional Economy: A Case of Turkey

MaIn purpose of this country report is to highlight the research and development strategy formulated by Turkey and how the TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) plans to implement that policy. TÜBİTAK is responsible for promoting, developing, organising, conducting and coordinating research and development activities in line with national targets and priorities. The salient features of the R&D (Research and Development) strategy are to foster an R&D culture in Turkey and increase co-operation and joint projects between public and private sector industry, research institutes and universities. The strategy to collaborate is adopted to complement and accelerate the research and development efforts. Moreover, there is an increasing emphasis on developing the Research and Development capabilities of the local industry so that an R&D culture prevails in the country. The Turkish government desired to have expertise to indigenously develop new products so that the country becomes self-sufficient and foreign dependence on imports of advanced technologies is reduced.