Antonio Francipane

Stochastic assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically based model

Hydrologic and geomorphic responses of watersheds to changes in climate are difficult to assess due to projection uncertainties and nonlinearity of the processes that are involved. Yet such assessments are increasingly needed and call for mechanistic approaches within a probabilistic framework. This study employs an integrated hydrology-geomorphology model, the Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)-Erosion, to analyze runoff and erosion sensitivity of seven semiarid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. The Advanced Weather Generator is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed located in the southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of multimodel climate change projections. The ensembles are used as forcing for tRIBS-Erosion that simulates runoff and sediment basin responses leading to probabilistic inferences of future changes. The results show that annual precipitation for the area is generally expected to decrease in the future, with lower hourly intensities and similar daily rates. The smaller hourly rainfall generally results in lower mean annual runoff. However, a non-negligible probability of runoff increase in the future is identified, resulting from stochastic combinations of years with low and high runoff. On average, the magnitudes of mean and extreme events of sediment yield are expected to decrease with a very high probability. Importantly, the projected variability of annual sediment transport for the future conditions is comparable to that for the historic conditions, despite the fact that the former account for a much wider range of possible climate “alternatives.” This result demonstrates that the historic natural climate variability of sediment yield is already so high, that it is comparable to the variability for a projected and highly uncertain future. Additionally, changes in the scaling relationship between specific sediment yield/runoff and drainage basin area are detected.

Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed.

Effect of raster resolution and polygon-conversion algorithm on landslide susceptibility mapping

The choice of the proper resolution in landslide susceptibility mapping is a worth considering issue. If, on the one hand, a coarse spatial resolution may describe the terrain morphologic properties with low accuracy, on the other hand, at very fine resolutions, some of the DEM-derived morphometric factors may hold an excess of details. Moreover, the landslide inventory maps are represented throughout geospatial vector data structure, therefore a conversion procedure vector-to-raster is required.This work investigates the effects of raster resolution on the susceptibility mapping in conjunction with the use of different algorithms of vector-raster conversion. The Artificial Neural Network technique is used to carry out such analyses on two Sicilian basins. Seven resolutions and three conversion algorithms are investigated. Results indicate that the finest resolutions do not lead to the highest model performances, whereas the algorithm of conversion data may significantly affect the ANN training procedure at coarse resolutions. Landslide susceptibility maps using ANN.Effects of raster resolution and vector-to-raster conversion algorithms.The finest resolutions do not necessarily lead to the highest model performances.The algorithm of conversion data may significantly affect the ANN training.

The role of urban growth, climate change, and their interplay in altering runoff extremes

Hydrological Processes. 2018;32:1755–1770. Abstract Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff.

Monthly Hydrological Indicators to Assess Possible Alterations on Rivers’ Flow Regime

Assessing potential deviations of the fundamental river basins’ hydrological processes and streamflow characteristics from the “natural trajectory” represents a high-priority objective to understand the biological impact of altered flow regime on river ecosystems. Existing approaches are mainly based on the analysis of daily-based indicators of hydrologic alteration, which requires wide database, including “pre-impact” and “post-impact” daily flow data frequently unavailable. The hydrological modeling is commonly used to face data missing problems or reconstruct natural conditions, even if models, especially at the daily scales, are often complex and computationally intensive. The use of simpler and more parsimonious models results, sometimes, essential for practical applications, also in consideration of the typical scarce availability of some data. This paper proposes an alternative approach for the evaluation of rivers flow regime alterations, based on different monthly hydrological indicators that are first computed and then combined to provide a global index of alteration. The procedure, conceptually derived from the Range of Variability Approach (RVA), is applied and tested on two Sicilian river basins (Italy) subject to anthropogenic influence. Streamflow regime for both the basins results differently disturbed by upstream human pressures. An alteration index is computed using available observations as “post-impact” monthly flow time-series, while time-series relative to “pre-impact” conditions have been reconstructed by the Tri.Mo.Ti.S. model, an innovative monthly and high-performing regional regressive hydrological model. The methodology, easily transferable to other regions, has revealed particularly efficacious in identifying and quantifying the existing human pressures and can be considered as a suitable tool for water resource management and policy planning activities.

Effetti di urbanizzazione e cambiamenti climatici sui deflussi a scala di bacino

PIETRO; Passadore, Giulia; Garbin, Silvia; B., Matticchio; F., Visentin; I., Brunet; R., Lago; F., Facco; Botter, Gianluca; Carniello, Luca. ELETTRONICO. (2016), pp. 1119-1122. ((Intervento presentato al convegno Convegno Nazionale di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche tenutosi a Bologna nel Settembre 2016. Original Citation: Un sistema modellistico integrato per la previsione in tempo reale delle piene del Muson dei Sassi (Pd)La XXXV edizione del Convegno Nazionale di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche (IDRA16), co-organizzata dal Gruppo Italiano di Idraulica (GII) e dal Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica, Ambientale, e dei Materiali (DICAM) dell’Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, si e svolta a Bologna dal 14 al 16 settembre 2016. Il Convegno Nazionale e tornato pertanto ad affacciarsi all’ombra del “Nettuno”, dopo l’edizione del 1982 (XVIII edizione). Il titolo della XXXV edizione, “Ambiente, Risorse, Energia: le sfide dell’Ingegneria delle acque in un mondo che cambia”, sottolinea l’importanza e la complessita delle tematiche che rivestono la sfera dello studio e del governo delle risorse idriche. Le sempre piu profonde interconnessioni tra risorse idriche, sviluppo economico e benessere sociale, infatti, spronano sia l’Accademia che l’intera comunita tecnico-scientifica nazionale ed internazionale all’identificazione ed alla messa in atto di strategie di gestione innovative ed ottimali: sfide percepite quanto mai necessarie in un contesto ambientale in continua evoluzione, come quello in cui viviamo. La XXXV edizione del Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, pertanto, si e posta come punto d’incontro della comunita tecnico-scientifica italiana per la discussione a tutto tondo di tali problematiche, offrendo un programma scientifico particolarmente ricco e articolato, che ha coperto tutti gli ambiti riconducibili all’Ingegneria delle Acque. L’apertura dei lavori del Convegno si e svolta nella storica cornice della Chiesa di Santa Cristina, uno dei luoghi piu caratteristici e belli della citta ed oggi luogo privilegiato per l’ascolto della musica classica, mentre le attivita di presentazione e discussione scientifica si sono svolte principalmente presso la sede della Scuola di Ingegneria e Architettura dell’Universita di Bologna sita in Via Terracini. Il presente volume digitale ad accesso libero (licenza Creative Commons 4.0) raccoglie le memorie brevi pervenute al Comitato Scientifico di IDRA16 ed accettate per la presentazione al convegno a valle di un processo di revisione tra pari. Il volume articola dette memorie in sette macro-tematiche, che costituiscono i capitoli del volume stesso: I. meccanica dei fluidi; II. ambiente marittimo e costiero; III. criteri, metodi e modelli per l’analisi dei processi idrologici e la gestione delle acque; IV. gestione e tutela dei corpi idrici e degli ecosistemi; V. valutazione e mitigazione del rischio idrologico e idraulico; VI. dinamiche acqua-societa: sviluppo sostenibile e gestione del territorio; VII. monitoraggio, open-data e software libero. Ciascuna macro-tematica raggruppa piu sessioni specialistiche autonome sviluppatesi in parallelo durante le giornate del Convegno, i cui titoli vengono richiamati all’interno del presente volume. La vastita e la diversita delle tematiche affrontate, che ben rappresentano la complessita delle numerose sfide dell’Ingegneria delle Acque, appaiono evidenti dalla consultazione dell’insieme di memorie brevi presentate. La convinta partecipazione della Comunita Scientifica Italiana e dimostrata dalle oltre 350 memorie brevi, distribuite in maniera pressoche uniforme tra le sette macro-tematiche di riferimento. Dette memorie sono sommari estesi di lunghezza variabile redatti in lingua italiana, o inglese. In particolare, la possibilita di stesura in inglese e stata concessa con l’auspicio di portare la visibilita del lavoro presentato ad un livello sovranazionale, grazie alla pubblicazione open access del volume degli Atti del Convegno. Il volume si divide in tre parti: la parte iniziale e dedicata alla presentazione del volume ed all’indice generale dei contributi divisi per macro-tematiche; la parte centrale raccoglie le memorie brevi; la terza parte riporta l’indice analitico degli Autori, che chiude il volume.