Antonio Golini

Demographic trends and population policies

Abstract By examining and reviewing current demographic problems, the author assesses the new challenges and new needs that Italy (and the European Union) will soon have to meet. Italy is a paradigmatic case because it is one of the countries (the other is Japan) where population changes are occurring most rapidly. The combined effects of lengthening expectation of life and decreasing fertility have made Italy, according to the most reliable and recent statistical sources, the country with the oldest population in the world. This makes management of the ageing process extremely complicated, since it requires greater structural adaptability and flexibility which must be achieved very rapidly.

Demographics, Public Spending and Social Programs

The demographic trends of the population of Italy are characterized by a very low fertility rate (in the 1990s the total fertility rate was 1.1-1.3, i.e. one of the lowest in the world) and very rapid aging (Italy was the first country in the world in which people aged 60+ outnumbered people aged less than 20). These trends require continuous and deep changes in the organization of society and in public services to avoid an increasing imbalance between demand and supply. They also require new social policies based on equity, efficiency and rationality. Copyright Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishers Ltd. 1998.