Antonio Lopo Martinez

Detectando Earnings management no Brasil: estimando os accruals discricionários

This paper analyzes classic models used in international academic literature to estimate discretionary accruals, which are an empirical proxy to detect earnings management. Additionally, it provides evidence that Brazilian public companies practice earnings management in response to capital market incentives. Initially, some important concepts are clarified, such as accruals and discretionary accruals. After a critical analysis of the main accruals model, the Kang & Silvaramakrishnan model (1995) was implemented in the context of Brazilian companies, which is technically considered the most accurate model for Brazil. To check the robustness of the model, circumstances were investigated where there were strong incentives to practice earnings management. The results confirm the earnings management hypothesis. Evidences were documented that Brazilian public companies manage their earnings to: a) Avoid reporting losses; b) Sustain recent performance and c) Worsen the current net income in order to have better future results (take a bath).

The Smoothing Hypothesis, Stock Returns and Risk in Brazil

Abstract Income smoothing is defined as the deliberate normalization of income in order to reach a desired trend. If the smoothing causes more information to be reflected in the stock price, it is likely to improve the allocation of resources and can be a critical factor in investment decisions. This study aims to build metrics to determine the degree of smoothing in Brazilian public companies, to classify them as smoothing and non-smoothing companies and additionally to present evidence on the long-term relationship between the smoothing hypothesis and stock return and risk. Using the Economatica and CVM databases, this study focuses on 145 companies in the period 1998-2007. We find that Brazilian smoothers have a smaller degree of systemic risk than non-smoothers. In average terms, the beta of smoothers is significantly lower than non-smoothers. Regarding return, we find that the abnormal annualized returns of smoothers are significantly higher. We confirm differences in the groups by nonparametric and parametric tests in cross section or as time series, indicating that there is a statistically significant difference in performance in the Brazilian market between firms that do and do not engage in smoothing.

Income smoothing, custo de capital de terceiros e estrutura de Capital no Brasil

In this paper using a sample of Brazilian companies and models proposed by Eckel (1981) and Leuz, Nanda, and Wysocki (2003) as empirical proxies to measure income smoothing, test results indicate that companies that promote income smoothing are likely to have a lower cost of capital and a capital structure with greater percentage of long-term debt. The methodology used included a panel data Nerlove type for a period from 2003 to 2007. The analysis lagged in one and two periods reveals that smoothing will impact on future cost of capital and the capital structure. Results after controlling heterogeneity and factors known to explain the cost of capital and capital structure proved to be robust, indicating the significance of income smoothing with respect to alternative explanatory variables. The influence of smoothing factor in one and two years delayed have comparable magnitude to other factors such as size and risk. The results support the notion that income smoothing in Brazil is an information-signaling mechanism, with implications for the cost of capital and the financing decisions.

Book-tax differences e gerenciamento de resultados no mercado de ações do Brasil

Este estudio verifica la relacion entre book-tax differences (BTD) y gestion de resultados en companias listadas en la BM&FBovespa, en el periodo de 2005 a 2009. Metodologicamente, fueron empleados dos abordajes: (i) distribucion de frecuencias y (ii) accruals discrecionales, Modelo Jones Modificado. Los resultados indican una relacion directamente proporcional entre la BTD y los accruals discrecionales. Fueron identificadas evidencias de que las entidades preponderantemente gestionan sus resultados hacia misma direccion de la senal observada de la BTD, ademas de buscar presentar el monto de BTD en nivel y en variacion en torno del punto cero y asi evitar senalizar baja calidad del lucro. Adicionalmente, fueron encontradas evidencias de que el tamano de la empresa y la adopcion del regimen tributario de transicion estan relacionados de forma inversamente proporcional al nivel de los accruals discrecionales.This study aimed to investigate the relationship between book-tax differences (BTD) and earnings management in firms listed on the BM&F Bovespa. The final sample consisted of 485 observations (firm-year) and the analysis included the period from 2005 to 2009. Methodologically, two approaches were employed in this study: (i) frequency distribution and (ii) discretionary accruals - Modified Jones Model. The findings indicate a directly proportional relationship between BTD and discretionary accruals. There was evidence that the firms manage their earnings in the same direction of the observed signal of BTD, and seek to present the amount of BTD in level and variation around the breakeven and thus avoid a relationship with low earnings quality. Additionally, evidence indicate that the size of firm and the adoption of the tax basis transition are inversely related to the level of discretionary accruals.

INSOLVENCY PREDICTION IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA INCONSISTENCIES

In this paper we use data inconsistencies as an indicator of financial distress. Traditional models for insolvency prediction normally ignore inconsistent data, either by removing or replacing it. Instead of removing that information, we propose a new variable to capture it; using it together with traditional accounting variables based on financial ratios for the purpose of insolvency prediction.

Bond Ratings and Income Smoothing in Brazil

ABSTRACT In this article we use the variables proposed by Eckel (1981) and Leuz et al. (2003) as proxies to measure income smoothing and find that Brazilian companies that engage in this behavior receive better ratings in their public bond issues. Using data obtained from the National Bond Registration System and the Economatica, we evaluated public bond offerings. The results of univariate and multivariate analyses and robustness tests attest to the significance of the income smoothing factor, regardless of the rating agency. The results support the notion that income smoothing is an information-signaling mechanism and has an impact on bond ratings.

Adoption of IFRS and the Properties of Analysts’ Forecasts: The Brazilian Case

Using data from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, we investigated the statistical properties of analysts’ quarterly earnings projections in the years around the adoption of IFRS in Brazil (2007 to 2011). Characteristics such as accuracy, bias and precision of analysts’ forecasts are useful in different situations. The results indicate that the accuracy improved with increased coverage and for more profitable firms. Univariate and multivariate tests did not indicate significant changes in the accuracy and bias of the forecasts in the years around the adoption of IFRS.

A contabilidade e o hipertexto: um estudo sobre o uso de websites como meio de disseminação científica contábil por instituições de ensino superior brasileiras

The present study investigated how the institutional Websites are being used by the Brazilian schools (heretofore “IES”) for disseminating accounting academic-scientifi c knowledge. A research was carried out with those IESs, which offer the undergraduate program in Accounting and were submitted to the National Exam of Educational Programs (ENC) 2003, coordinated by the Ministry of Education. The total research – includes 461 programs in Accounting offered in Brazil that were submitted to the ENC. The sample was composed of the 303 programs graded A, B or C (medium or superior to the average) in the above mentioned Exam. The methodology used was an empiric-exploratory study. – There were 5.711 entries referring to scientifi c knowledge. The use of Websites by the analyzed IESs can be considered incipient given the high number of institutions that – do not have sites as a way of disseminating – knowledge and the evidences showed strong concentration - according to a few parameters, such as geographical area, States of the Brazilian federation and grades obtained at ENC 2003.

Consequências para a Rentabilidade Futura com o Gerenciamento de Resultados por Meio de Atividades Operacionais Reais

This article analyzes earnings management through real operating activities by firms in the Brazilian capital market. This way of manipulating outcomes takes place when managers make suboptimal decisions in terms of timing and volume of operating activities. This study tests the hypothesis that firms engaged in earnings management through real operating activities might have a negative impact on future returns. Our analysis is restricted to nonfinancial firms listed on the Brazilian Securities, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA) with annual data made available by the Economatica® for the years from 1989 to 2012. Empirical tests involving regression on panel data and estimation of future firm returns and outcomes indicate a negative impact on return on assets (ROA) related to manipulation through real operating activities. This finding is useful for several stakeholders. It demonstrates that manipulation through real operating activities takes place in the Brazilian capital market, suggesting that earnings management extends beyond discretionary accounting choices in this country. The main contribution is demonstrating a negative relation between earnings management by using real operating activities and future returns. This finding is relevant for investors, particularly for the purposes of comparison and valuation of securities.

Accrual Anomaly in the Brazilian Capital Market

This paper analyzes the phenomenon known as accrual anomaly in Brazil. In particular, we examine two hypotheses: (a) that the earnings expectation included in the stock price fails to reflect the difference in persistence of the earnings components (accruals and cash flows); and (b) that the construction of a hedge portfolio by taking a long (short) position in assets with low (high) accruals generates consistently abnormal returns. The data set includes nonfinancial firms listed on the BMF the Mishkin test to identify whether the market rationally prices earnings; and the composition of a zero-investment (hedge) portfolio to analyze whether a trading strategy based on accruals consistently provides abnormal positive returns. The results indicate that the accrual component is not mispriced by the Brazilian market, and that a trading strategy based on accruals does not provide consistently positive returns. Although this evidence does not encourage arbitrage, the results are relevant from various perspectives. The methodology applied permitted identifying the quality of earnings and of their components, as well as association between the components of earnings and returns.