Antony Chapoto

False Promise or False Premise? The Experience of Food and Input Market Reform in Eastern and Southern Africa

Abstract The literature on the effects of agricultural market reform in Africa is sharply divided and inconsistent. This article attempts to reconcile opposing viewpoints on the effects of food and input market policy reform in eastern and southern Africa. Drawing from studies of Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, we argue that a major source of the controversy stems from assumptions that countries have actually moved to a liberalized market environment. We find that many of the most fundamental elements of the reform programs either remain unimplemented, were reversed within several years, or were implemented in such a way as to negate private sector investment incentives. A framework is developed for explaining why some countries have been able to liberalize their food and fertilizer markets while others have not. These findings have implications for how donor assistance and policy-oriented research can more constructively contribute to an improved policy environment.

Impact of AIDS-Related Mortality on Farm Household Welfare in Zambia

This article uses nationally representative panel data on 5,420 rural households in Zambia, surveyed in 2001 and 2004, to measure the impacts of HIV/AIDS‐related prime‐age mortality on livelihoods. Using age group and drought shock interactions as instruments for prime‐age mortality, we find that prime‐age mortality is endogenous in pooled OLS models. However, differencing the time‐invariant unobserved household characteristics largely addressed the endogeneity problem. The difference models suggest that the gender and position of the deceased in the household as well as pre‐death household characteristics strongly condition the effects of mortality on household welfare outcomes. Most notably, the death of the male household head leads to relatively severe impacts on farm production and livestock assets compared to the death of other adults. Also, the impact of adult mortality is more severe among households that were initially relatively poor. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find no clear pattern of shifts to labor‐saving crops among afflicted households.

Assessment of Alternative Maize Trade and Market Policy Interventions in Zambia

The economic reforms in maize marketing and trade policies implemented during the 1990s have been highly controversial, and there remains a lack of solid empirical investigation on the impacts of these reforms on national food security, price stability and rural income growth. This study aims to provide a detailed evidence-based analysis of the impacts of maize marketing and trade policies on smallholder agricultural production growth, access to food by consumers, and other important national policy objectives. These insights from Zambia can hopefully move forward the continuing debate in the region on how maize marketing and trade policies should be structured in the future.

Widows' Land Security in the Era of HIV/AIDS: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia

In areas of Africa hard hit by HIV/AIDS, there are growing concerns that many women lose access to land after the death of their husbands. However, there remains a dearth of quantitative evidence on the proportion of widows who lose access to their deceased husband’s land, whether they lose all or part of that land, and whether there are factors specific to the widow, her family, or the broader community that influence her ability to maintain rights to land. This study examines these issues using average treatment effects models with propensity score matching applied to a nationally representative panel data of 5,342 rural households surveyed in 2001 and 2004. Results are highly variable, with roughly a third of households incurring the death of a male household head controlling less than 50% of the land they had prior to their husband’s death, while over a quarter actually controlled as much or even more land than while their husbands were alive. Widows who were in relatively wealthy households prior to their husband’s death lose proportionately more land than widows in households that were relatively poor. Older widows and widows related to the local headman enjoy greater land security. Women in matrilineal inheritance areas were no less likely to lose land than women in patrilineal areas.

Are Staple Foods Becoming More Expensive For Urban Consumers In Eastern And Southern Africa? Trends in Food Prices, Marketing Margins, and Wage Rates in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

The world food and financial crises threaten to undermine the real incomes of urban consumers in eastern and southern Africa. This study investigates patterns in staple food prices, wage rates, and marketing margins for urban consumers in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia between 1993 and 2009. There is high correlation among wage rate series for various government and private sector categories. We find that average formal sector wages rose at a faster rate than retail maize meal and bread prices in urban Kenya and Zambia between the mid-1990s and 2007. Although the 2007/8 food price crisis partially reversed this trend, the quantities of staple foods affordable per daily wage in urban Kenya and Zambia during the 2008/9 marketing season were still roughly double their levels of the mid1990s. The national minimum wage in Mozambique also grew more rapidly than rice and wheat flour prices in Maputo from the mid-1990s through the 2004/5 and 2006/7 marketing seasons, respectively. During the 2008/9 marketing season, Maputo minimum wage earners’ rice and wheat flour purchasing power was still higher than in the mid-1990s and roughly similar to levels at the millennium. These findings obtain for formal sector wage earners in Kenya and Zambia and minimum wage earners in Mozambique only. The majority of the urban labor force in these countries is employed in the informal sector; therefore, the general conclusion of improved food purchasing power over the past 15 years may not hold for a significant portion of urban workers. Maize marketing margins trended downward between 1994 and 2004 in urban Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia, while wheat marketing margins declined only in Zambia. For the public sector, important strategies for keeping food prices at tolerable levels include strengthening and improving crop forecasting and the food balance sheet approach for estimating need for imports, facilitating imports in a timely manner when needed, and ensuring the continued availability of low-cost staple food options for urban consumers through small-scale processing and marketing channels.

AIDS and Agriculture in Zambia

Background Because agriculture is the livelihood base for the majority of people affected by AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, the interactions between AIDS and agriculture, and their implications for policy and programming, are of fundamental importance. Objective This paper summarizes evidence from three RENEWAL (Regional Network on AIDS, Livelihoods, and Food Security) research studies and one policy review on the interactions between AIDS and agriculture in Zambia and their implications for future policy and programming. Methods The unit of analysis adopted for each study varies, spanning the individual, household, cluster, and community levels, drawing attention to the wider socioeconomic landscape within which households operate. Results This paper identifies the ways in which livelihood activities, within the prevailing norms of gender, sexuality, and perceptions of risk in rural Zambia, can influence susceptibility to HIV, and how the nature and severity of the subsequent impacts of AIDS are modified by the specific characteristics and initial conditions of households, clusters, and communities. Conclusions The findings demonstrate the importance of studying the risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts of the AIDS epidemic in the context of multiple resource flows and relationships between and within households—and in the context of other drivers of vulnerability, some of which interact with HIV and AIDS. The paper addresses several factors that enable or hinder access to formal support programs, and concludes by highlighting the particular importance of engaging communities proactively in the response to HIV and AIDS, to ensure relevance, sustainability, and scale.

Motivating and preparing African youth for successful careers in agribusiness

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the career trajectories of 66 distinguished African agricultural professionals in order to explore how agricultural education and training (AET) institutions can better motivate and prepare youth for productive careers in Africa’s rapidly changing agrifood system. Design/methodology/approach – Based on in-depth qualitative interviews with these role models, the paper explores the answers to two critical questions: How can Africa motivate its youth to consider careers in agriculture and agribusiness? How can AET institutions better prepare youth for productive careers in agribusiness? Findings – Rural youth enter agribusiness careers in response to clearly perceived rural needs coupled with demonstrable profitability of modern agricultural and agribusiness opportunities. In contrast, urban youth embark on agricultural career paths in response to inspiring science education, particularly practical applications in biology, coupled with emerging awareness of t...

Increasing Agricultural Resilience through Better Risk Management in Zambia

A proper understanding of the risks faced by the agricultural sector and effective strategies to manage those risks is vital to creating a diversified and resilient economy for sustained growth and economic transformation. Increasing Agricultural Resilience through Better Risk Management in Zambia provides a rigorous analysis of the production, marketing, and enabling environment risks faced by Zambia’s agricultural sector and prioritizes solutions to manage the risks. In terms of the severity and frequency of adverse impacts, the analysis shows that droughts, floods, price volatilities, and trade restrictions are the principal risks affecting agriculture in the country. Exposure to the consequences of these and other risks can be effectively limited through risk management systems tailored to the country’s context. Three areas of risk management are found to warrant priority, with significant potential for synergizing actions undertaken across them: Strengthen early warning system to detect threats to food security; Develop climate-smart agriculture and increase resilience to climate-related shocks through diversification; and Develop the Zambian Commodity Exchange (ZAMACE) and build a shock-responsive safety net.