Nicole M. Mason

Fertiliser Subsidies and Smallholder Commercial Fertiliser Purchases: Crowding Out, Leakage and Policy Implications for Zambia

Two key determinants of the effect of a fertilizer subsidy program on total fertilizer use are (a) the extent to which subsidized fertilizer “crowds out” or “displaces” farmers’ purchases of fertilizer from commercial retailers, and (b) the extent to which fertilizer intended for government subsidies leaks out of the government channel and is resold as commercial fertilizer.

Widows' Land Security in the Era of HIV/AIDS: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia

In areas of Africa hard hit by HIV/AIDS, there are growing concerns that many women lose access to land after the death of their husbands. However, there remains a dearth of quantitative evidence on the proportion of widows who lose access to their deceased husband’s land, whether they lose all or part of that land, and whether there are factors specific to the widow, her family, or the broader community that influence her ability to maintain rights to land. This study examines these issues using average treatment effects models with propensity score matching applied to a nationally representative panel data of 5,342 rural households surveyed in 2001 and 2004. Results are highly variable, with roughly a third of households incurring the death of a male household head controlling less than 50% of the land they had prior to their husband’s death, while over a quarter actually controlled as much or even more land than while their husbands were alive. Widows who were in relatively wealthy households prior to their husband’s death lose proportionately more land than widows in households that were relatively poor. Older widows and widows related to the local headman enjoy greater land security. Women in matrilineal inheritance areas were no less likely to lose land than women in patrilineal areas.

Hybrid Seed and the Economic Well-Being of Smallholder Maize Farmers in Zambia

Abstract The development and diffusion of hybrid maize in Zambia since the 1970s is a major achievement in African agriculture, but other than profitability studies, analyses of how this process has affected the economic well-being of smallholder farmers have been few. We test the relationship of hybrid seed use with six indicators of economic well-being. After using the control function/instrumental variables approach to test for the endogeneity of hybrid seed use, we estimate correlated random effects (CRE) fractional response, CRE Tobit, and fixed effects models with a panel of nationally representative data collected in 2002/3 and 2006/7. Findings suggest that use of maize hybrids is associated with higher values of household income, assets, farm and processing equipment, and livestock, and less deprivation compared to other farmers in nearby villages.

Are Staple Foods Becoming More Expensive For Urban Consumers In Eastern And Southern Africa? Trends in Food Prices, Marketing Margins, and Wage Rates in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

The world food and financial crises threaten to undermine the real incomes of urban consumers in eastern and southern Africa. This study investigates patterns in staple food prices, wage rates, and marketing margins for urban consumers in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia between 1993 and 2009. There is high correlation among wage rate series for various government and private sector categories. We find that average formal sector wages rose at a faster rate than retail maize meal and bread prices in urban Kenya and Zambia between the mid-1990s and 2007. Although the 2007/8 food price crisis partially reversed this trend, the quantities of staple foods affordable per daily wage in urban Kenya and Zambia during the 2008/9 marketing season were still roughly double their levels of the mid1990s. The national minimum wage in Mozambique also grew more rapidly than rice and wheat flour prices in Maputo from the mid-1990s through the 2004/5 and 2006/7 marketing seasons, respectively. During the 2008/9 marketing season, Maputo minimum wage earners’ rice and wheat flour purchasing power was still higher than in the mid-1990s and roughly similar to levels at the millennium. These findings obtain for formal sector wage earners in Kenya and Zambia and minimum wage earners in Mozambique only. The majority of the urban labor force in these countries is employed in the informal sector; therefore, the general conclusion of improved food purchasing power over the past 15 years may not hold for a significant portion of urban workers. Maize marketing margins trended downward between 1994 and 2004 in urban Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia, while wheat marketing margins declined only in Zambia. For the public sector, important strategies for keeping food prices at tolerable levels include strengthening and improving crop forecasting and the food balance sheet approach for estimating need for imports, facilitating imports in a timely manner when needed, and ensuring the continued availability of low-cost staple food options for urban consumers through small-scale processing and marketing channels.

The Effects of Kenya's 'Smarter' Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi-experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Kenya joined the ranks of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programs (ISPs) for inorganic fertilizer and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Program (NAAIAP). While several features of NAAIAP were ‘smarter’ than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less ‘smart’. However, the efficacy of this program, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders’ cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data- and propensity score-based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in program designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertilizer demand, NAAIAP had sizable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP’s success in targeting resource-poor farmers and implementation through vouchers redeemable at private agro-dealer shops likely contributed to its more favorable impacts than those of ISPs in Malawi and Zambia.

The political economy of fertilizer subsidy programs in Africa: Evidence from Zambia

Abstract Fertilizer subsidy programs have re‐emerged as popular policy tools in sub‐Saharan Africa. Despite a burgeoning body of literature on program impacts, the political economy of the programs remains poorly understood. In particular, there is a dearth of empirical evidence to support or refute the conventional wisdoms that governments systematically target subsidized inputs to certain areas based on past voting patterns and that fertilizer subsidies win votes. This article discusses the theoretical links between government targeting of subsidized fertilizer and voter behavior, then uses panel data from Zambia to empirically test these conventional wisdoms. Results suggest that Zambias Movement for Multi‐Party Democracy governments targeted more subsidized fertilizer to households in areas where it had strong support in the previous presidential election. However, contrary to conventional wisdom, marginal changes in the scale or coverage of the fertilizer subsidy program had no statistically significant effect on the share or number of votes won by incumbent presidents.

Input Subsidy Programs and Climate Smart Agriculture: Current Realities and Future Potential

The achievement of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) goals in Africa will require widespread farmer adoption of practices and technologies that promote resilience and system-wide collective action to promote ex ante climate risk management activities and ex post coping strategies. Leveraging public sector resources is critical to achieve goals at scale. This study examines the scope for input subsidy programs (ISPs) to contribute to achieving CSA objectives in Africa. Available evidence to date suggests that in most cases ISPs have had either no effect on or have reduced SSA smallholders’ use of potentially CSA practices. However, recent innovations in ISPs may promote some climate smart objectives by contributing to system-level ex-ante risk management. In particular, restricted voucher systems for improved seed types that utilize private sector distribution supply chains may prove capable of promoting CSA goals. Generally, moving from systems that prescribe a fixed input packet to a flexible system with a range of input choices holds promise, but fixed systems still hold some benefits. Conditional ISPs would require improved monitoring and compliance as well as defining practices with clearly measurable productivity benefits vis-a-vis CSA goals. The potential of ISPs to achieve widespread CSA benefits must address these challenges and be evaluated against benefits of investments in irrigation, physical infrastructure, and public agricultural research and extension, which may generate higher comprehensive social benefits.

Weather extremes and household welfare in rural Kenya

Households in rural Kenya are sensitive to weather shocks through their reliance on rain-fed agriculture and livestock. Yet the extent of vulnerability is poorly understood, particularly in reference to extreme weather. This paper uses temporally and spatially disaggregated weather data and three waves of household panel survey data to understand the impact of weather extremes –including periods of high and low rainfall, heat, and wind– on household welfare. Particular attention is paid to heterogeneous effects across agro-ecological regions. We find that all types of extreme weather affect household well-being, although effects sometimes differ for income and calorie estimates. Periods of drought are the most consistently negative weather shock across various regions. An examination of the channels through which weather affects welfare reveals that drought conditions reduce income from both on- and off-farm sources, though households compensate for diminished on-farm production with food purchases. The paper further explores the household and community characteristics that mitigate the adverse effects of drought. In particular, access to credit and a more diverse income base seem to render a household more resilient.