Anupam Hazra

A Classical-Theory-Based Parameterization of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation by Mineral Dust, Soot, and Biological Particles in a Global Climate Model

An ice nucleation parameterization based on classical nucleation theory, with aerosol-specific parameters derived from experiments, has been implemented into a global climate model—the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)-Oslo. The parameterization treats immersion, contact, and deposition nucleation by mineral dust, soot, bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen in mixed-phase clouds at temperatures between 08 and 2388C. Immersion freezing is considered for insoluble particles that are activated to cloud droplets, and deposition and contact nucleation are only allowed for uncoated, unactivated aerosols. Immersion freezing by mineral dust is found to be the dominant ice formation process, followed by immersion and contact freezing by soot. The simulated biological aerosol contribution to global atmospheric ice formation is marginal, even with high estimates of their ice nucleation activity, because the number concentration of ice nucleation active biological particles in the atmosphere is low compared to other ice nucleating aerosols. Because of the dominance of mineral dust, the simulated ice nuclei concentrations at temperatures below 2208C are found to correlate with coarse-mode aerosol particle concentrations. The ice nuclei (IN) concentrations in the model agree well overall with in situ continuous flow diffusion chamber measurements. At individual locations, the model exhibits a stronger temperature dependence on IN concentrations than what is observed. The simulated IN composition (77% mineral dust, 23% soot, and 10 25 % biological particles) lies in the range of observed ice nuclei and ice crystal residue compositions.

Role of interaction between dynamics, thermodynamics and cloud microphysics on summer monsoon precipitating clouds over the Myanmar Coast and the Western Ghats

Indian summer monsoon circulation can be characterized by mean tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient between ocean and land. Two major heat sources, one near the Myanmar Coast and the other near the Western Ghats play seminal role in defining this TT gradient. While both regions are characterized by very similar orographic features, there are significant differences in frequency of occurrence of precipitating clouds and their characteristics even when the amount of rain in June–July months is almost same in the two regions. Deeper (shallower) clouds appear more frequently over the Myanmar Coast (the Western Ghats). There is a sharp decrease in amount of rainfall from June–July to August–September in both the areas. Rather counter intuitively, during the June–July–August–September season, low and moderate rains contribute more to the total rain in the Myanmar Coast while heavy rains contribute more to the total rain in the Western Ghats. Western Ghats also gets more intense rains but less frequently. With significant differences in moisture availability, updraft, amount and characteristics of cloud condensate in the two regions, this study proposes that the nontrivial differences in features between them could be explained by linkages between cloud microphysics and large scale dynamics. Presence of more cloud liquid water and the role of giant cloud condensation nuclei reveals dominance of warm rain process in the Western Ghats whereas more cloud ice, snow and graupel formation in the Myanmar Coast indicates stronger possibility of cold rain coming from mixed phase processes. Stronger heating caused by mixed phase process in the mid and upper troposphere in the Myanmar Coast and its feedback on buoyancy of air parcel explains the appearance of deeper clouds. Thus, our study highlights importance of mixed phase processes, a major cause of uncertainty in GCMs.

Role of Interactions between Aerosol Radiative Effect, Dynamics, and Cloud Microphysics on Transitions of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations

AbstractExtended-range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), crucial for agriculture and water management, is limited by their event-to-event variability. Here, the authors propose a hypothesis supported by a number of model simulations involving detailed cloud microphysical processes indicating that aerosols contribute significantly to the transitions from “break” to “active” phases of MISO. The role of aerosol indirect effect in the process of invigoration of precipitation is demonstrated with a high-resolution regional model for Indian summer monsoon breaks that are followed by an active condition (BFA) and contrasted with breaks that are not followed by an active condition (BNFA). The BFA are characterized by higher concentrations of absorbing aerosols that lead to a stronger north–south low-level temperature gradient and strong moisture convergence. Forced uplift beyond the freezing level initiates the cold-rain process involving mixed-phase microphysics and latent heat release at...

Does the modification in ???critical relative humidity??? of NCEP CFSv2 dictate Indian mean summer monsoon forecast? Evaluation through thermodynamical and dynamical aspects

Abstract An accurate seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is intriguing as well as the most challenging job for monsoon meteorologists. As there is a cause and effect relationship between clouds and precipitation, the modulation of cloud formation in a dynamical model affects profoundly on ISMR. It has already been established that the critical relative humidity (CRH) plays a crucial role on the realistic cloud formation in a general circulation model. Hence, it may be hypothesized that the proper choice of CRH can be instrumental in driving the large scale Indian monsoon by modulating the cloud formation in a global climate model. An endeavor has been made for the first time to test the above hypothesis on the NCEP-CFSv2 model in the perspective of seasonal prediction of ISMR by modifying the CRH profile. The model sensitivity experiments have been carried out for two different CRH profiles along with the existing profile during the normal (2003) and deficient (2009) monsoon years. First profile is the constant CRH following the existing one but with increased magnitude and the second one is the variable CRH at different cloud levels based on the observations and MERRA reanalysis. The ensemble mean of model runs for four initial conditions of each year has revealed that the variable CRH profile in CFSv2 represents seasonal ISMR and its variability best among the three CRH experiments linking with the thermodynamical and dynamical parameters like precipitable water, tropospheric temperature and its gradient, cloud structure and radiation, water vapour flux, systematic error energy with its nonlinear error growth and the length of the rainy seasons during the contrasting years. It has also been shown that the improved depiction of seasonal ISMR has been achieved without disturbing much the forecast biases at other global tropical regions. The indigenous part of this paper is that the CRH modification can play a seminal role in modulating the large scale system like Indian monsoon by representing the realistic variability of cloud formation in CFSv2 and that proves the hypothesis. This work creates an avenue for further development of CFSv2 approaching towards an accurate seasonal forecast of ISMR.

Evaluation of cloud properties in the NCEP CFSv2 model and its linkage with Indian summer monsoon

Cloud fraction, which varies greatly among general circulation models, plays a crucial role in simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model is evaluated in terms of its simulation of cloud fraction, cloud condensate, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and tropospheric temperature (TT). Biases in these simulated quantities are computed using observations from CALIPSO and reanalysis data from MERRA. It is shown that CFSv2 underestimates (overestimates) high- (mid-) level clouds. The cloud condensate is also examined to see its impact on different types of clouds. The upper-level cloud condensate is underestimated, particularly during the summer monsoon period, which leads to a cold TT and a dry precipitation bias. The unrealistically weak TT gradient between ocean and land is responsible for the underestimation of ISMR. The model-simulated OLR is overestimated which depicts the weaker convective activity. A large underestimate of precipitable water is also seen along the cross-equatorial flow and particularly over the Indian land region collocated with a dry precipitation bias. The linkages among cloud microphysical, thermodynamical, and dynamical processes are identified here. Thus, this study highlights the importance of cloud properties, a major cause of uncertainty in CFSv2, and also proposes a pathway for improvements in its simulation of the Indian summer monsoon.

Seminal role of stratiform clouds in large-scale aggregation of tropical rain in boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations

Modification of the vertical structure of non-adiabatic heating by significant abundance of the stratiform rain in the tropics has been known to influence the large-scale circulation. However, the role of the stratiform rain on the space–time evolution of the observed Boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) has so far been ignored. In the present study, we unravel a feedback mechanism through which the stratiform component of the rain leads to aggregation (organization) of rain on the MISO scale, making it an indispensable component of the MISO evolution dynamics. Using TRMM 3A25 monthly mean data (between 1998 and 2013), the ratio between convective and stratiform rain (RCS) is shown to be strongly related to the total rainfall. Further, composites of rainfall and circulation anomalies corresponding to high (low) values of RCS over the Central India or over the Equatorial Indian Ocean show spatial structures remarkably similar to that associated with the MISOs. Analyzing lead–lag relationship between the convective rain, the stratiform rain and the large scale moisture convergence with respect to peak active (break) spells from daily modern era retrospective-analysis for research and applications data, we unravel that the initial isolated convective elements spawn the stratiform rain which in turn modifies the vertical distribution of heating and leads to stronger large scale moisture convergence thereby producing more convective elements and more stratiform rain ultimately leading to aggregation of rain on the MISO scale. Our finding indicates that large and persisting systematic biases in simulating the summer monsoon rainfall over the Asian monsoon region by climate models are likely to be related to the systematic biases in simulating the MISOs which in turn are related to the serious underestimation of stratiform rain in most climate models.

Indian summer monsoon precipitating clouds: role of microphysical process rates

The budget analysis of microphysical process rates based on Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) products are presented in the study. The relative importance of different microphysical process rates, which is crucial for GCMs, is investigated. The autoconversion and accretion processes are found to be vital for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The map-to-map correlations are examined between observed precipitation and MERRA reanalysis. The pattern correlations connote the fidelity of the MERRA datasets used here. Results of other microphysical parameters (e.g. ice water content from CloudSat, high cloud fraction from CALIPSO and MODIS, latent heating from TRMM, cloud ice mixing ratio from MERRA) are presented in this study. The tropospheric temperature from reanalysis product of MERRA and NCEP are also analyzed. Furthermore, the linkages between cloud microphysics production rates and dynamics, which are important for North–South tropospheric temperature gradient for maintaining the ISM circulation, are also discussed. The study demonstrates the microphysical process rates, which are actually responsible for the cloud hydrometeors and precipitation formation on the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations timescale. Cloud to rain water auto-conversion and snow accretion rates are the dominant processes followed by the rain accretion. All these tendency terms replicates the similar spatial patterns as that of precipitation. The quantification of microphysical process rates and precipitation over different regions are shown here. The freezing rate is also imperative for the formation of cloud ice as revealed by the observation. Freezing rates at upper level and snow accretion at middle level may have effect on latent heating release. Further it can modulate the north–south temperature gradient which can influence the large-scale monsoon dynamics. The rain water evaporation is also considered as a key aspect for controlling the low level moisture convergence (source of water vapor) in ISM. This study has highlighted the importance of detailed microphysical production rates for warm and mixed-phase cloud processes, which is a major source of uncertainty in the climate models. Better understanding of these processes will definitely add value to the present generation climate models. Therefore the hypothesis/pathway emerged from the present study may be helpful for the future model development research.

Dynamical features of incessant heavy rainfall event of June 2013 over Uttarakhand, India

Abstract The southward penetration of mid-latitude westerlies and their interaction with monsoon current are harbinger of intense rainfall activity over northern and central India. Such synoptic condition prevailed during June 14–17, 2013, and unleashed relentless rainfall over the state of Uttarakhand. Observational aspects of this event have been explored using surface, satellite and reanalysis data. Precipitation features have been explored using data from Precipitation Radar Onboard TRMM satellite in conjunction with TRMM-TB42, Automatic Weather Station and Automatic Rain Gauge Station data. The ERA interim dataset has been used to explore prevalent synoptic conditions, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis fields revealed that prevalent synoptic features led to moisture flux convergence in lower troposphere. Vertically integrated water vapor transport over the India and adjoining oceanic region is evaluated to gain an insight into the dynamical mechanism of rainfall activity over Uttarakhand. Results reveal that interplay between movement of monsoon low along the monsoon trough resulting in strong low-level convergence and constant feeding of moisture from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and strong upper-level divergence owing to southward intrusion of mid-latitude westerly trough resulted in heavy rainfall activity over Uttarakhand.

Improvement in convective and stratiform rain fractions over the Indian region with introduction of new ice nucleation parameterization in ECHAM5

Improvement in the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall by modifying the existing microphysical scheme in Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), ECHAM5, is of great interest in this present study. New formulations for the cloud ice formation have been implemented and tested in this sensitivity studies. Core monsoon zone rainfall is better captured by modification experiments as compared to the control simulations. Modification experiments give indication of improvement in cloud ice production. The overestimation of total cloud cover over the oceanic region is improved a lot in modification experiments. The major improvement appears in the realistic simulations of the proper ratio of convective and stratiform rain products. It depicts better resemblance with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) observations. The changes in cloud ice production arise due to different formulations used in this study, and it is manifested in the monsoon rainfall by the production of proper convective to total rain ratio. Ice nucleation which is a function of supersaturation (called as experiment MOD1) performs better for the Indian monsoon region. A new formulation used in this study provides promise for the better simulation of monsoon and it will further accelerate the future development of a reliable prediction system of ISM using dynamical models.

Effect of cloud microphysics on Indian summer monsoon precipitating clouds: A coupled climate modeling study

The quest for one of the most dominant processes controlling the large-scale circulations in the tropics is unraveled. The impact of cloud microphysical processes is known to have effects on rainfall and local atmospheric thermodynamics, however, its effect on the prevailing mean circulations is not yet studied. Two sets of coupled global climate model experiments (ICE and NO ICE microphysics) reveal that ice microphysics improves the strength of the Hadley circulation with respect to observation. Results pinpoint that ICE simulation enhances high cloud fraction (global tropics: ~59 %, India: ~51 %) and stratiform rain (global tropics: ~5 %, India: ~15 %) contribution. ICE and NO ICE cloud microphysics impacts differently on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), tropospheric temperature, surface shortwave and longwave radiation. The effect of ice microphysics reduces OLR, which signifies deeper convection in the ICE run. The global annual average of the net radiation flux (shortwave and longwave) at the surface in ICE run (108.1 W/m2) is close to the observation (106 W/m2), which is overestimated in NO ICE run (112 W/m2). The result of apparent heat source term over the land and ocean surface eventually modifies regional Hadley circulation. Thus, the effect of ice microphysics in the global coupled model is important not only because of microphysics but also due to the radiation feedbacks. Therefore, better ice-phase microphysics is required in the new generation of climate forecast model, which may lead to improvements in the simulation of monsoon.