Subodh K. Saha

Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently

Observations have shown that the Indian Ocean is consistently warming and its warm pool is expanding, particularly in the recent decades. This paper attempts to investigate the reason behind these observations. Under global warming scenario, it is expected that the greenhouse gas induced changes in air–sea fluxes will enhance the warming. Surprisingly, it is found that the net surface heat fluxes over Indian Ocean warm pool (IOWP) region alone cannot explain the consistent warming. The warm pool area anomaly of IOWP is strongly correlated with the sea surface height anomaly, suggesting an important role played by the ocean advection processes in warming and expansion of IOWP. The structure of lead/lag correlations further suggests that Oceanic Rossby waves might be involved in the warming. Using heat budget analysis of several Ocean data assimilation products, it is shown that the net surface heat flux (advection) alone tends to cool (warm) the Ocean. Based on above observations, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled positive feedback mechanism for explaining the consistent warming and expansion of IOWP. Warming over IOWP induces an enhancement of convection in central equatorial Indian ocean, which causes anomalous easterlies along the equator. Anomalous easterlies in turn excite frequent Indian ocean Dipole events and cause anti-cyclonic wind stress curl in south-east and north-east equatorial Indian ocean. The anomalous wind stress curl triggers anomalous downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, thereby deepening the thermocline and resulting in advection of warm waters towards western Indian ocean. This acts as a positive feedback and results in more warming and westward expansion of IOWP.

Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun

The latest version of the state-of-the-art global land–atmosphere–ocean coupled climate forecast system of NCEP has shown considerable improvement in various aspects of the Indian summer monsoon. However, climatological mean dry bias over the Indian sub-continent is further increased as compared to the previous version. Here we have attempted to link this dry bias with climatological mean bias in the Eurasian winter/spring snow, which is one of the important predictors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Simulation of interannual variability of the Eurasian snow and its teleconnection with the ISMR are quite reasonable in the model. Using composite analysis it is shown that a positive snow anomaly, which is comparable to the systematic bias in the model, results into significant decrease in the summer monsoon rainfall over the central India and part of the Equatorial Indian Ocean. Decrease in the summer monsoon rainfall is also found to be linked with weaker northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). A barotropic stationary wave triggered by positive snow anomaly over west Eurasia weakens the upper level monsoon circulation, which in turn reduces the zonal wind shear and hence, weakens the northward propagation of summer monsoon ISOs. A sensitivity experiment by reducing snow fall over Eurasian region causes decrease in winter and spring snow depth, which in turn leads to decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Results from the sensitivity experiment corroborate with those of composite analysis based on long free run. This study suggests that further improvements in the snow parametrization schemes as well as Arctic sea ice are needed to reduce the Eurasian snow bias during winter/spring, which may reduce the dry bias over Indian sub-continent and hence predictability aspect of the model.

Modulation of ISOs by land-atmosphere feedback and contribution to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

A mechanism of internal variability of Indian summer monsoon through the modulation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) by land-atmosphere feedback is proposed. Evidence of feedback between surface soil moisture and ISOs is seen in the soil moisture data from GSWP-2 and rainfall data from observations. Using two sets of internal simulation by a regional climate model (RCM), it is shown that internally generated anomalous soil moisture interacts with the following ISO and generates interannual variability. To gain further insight, 27 years of sensitivity experiment by prescribing wet (dry) soil moisture condition during break (active) period along with a control simulation are carried out. The sensitivity experiment reveals the large-scale nature of soil moisture and ISO feedback which takes place through the changes in atmospheric stability by altering lower-level atmospheric conditions. The feedback is inherent to the monsoon system and a part of it acts through the intraseasonal varying memory of soil moisture. The RCM used to test the hypothesis is constrained by one-way interactions at the lateral boundary. Experiments with a much larger domain upheld the findings and hence suggest the true nature of soil moisture and ISO feedback present in the monsoon system.

Future winter extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Arctic

This study investigates the possible changes in future winter temperature and precipitation extre mes in the Arctic using the regional climate model HIRHAM4. Under the B2 emission scenario conditions, frequency and intensity of future (2037-2051) extremes have changed significantly compared to the present-day (1981-1995) extremes. Extreme precipitations have intensified and the number of extreme events has changed significantly over East Siberia and Barents Sea. Extreme warm and extreme cold temperatures have become warmer with maxima over Barents Sea and Central Eurasia. Changes in the mean climate and its variability are modulating the future winter extreme events.

Indian summer monsoon precipitating clouds: role of microphysical process rates

The budget analysis of microphysical process rates based on Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) products are presented in the study. The relative importance of different microphysical process rates, which is crucial for GCMs, is investigated. The autoconversion and accretion processes are found to be vital for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The map-to-map correlations are examined between observed precipitation and MERRA reanalysis. The pattern correlations connote the fidelity of the MERRA datasets used here. Results of other microphysical parameters (e.g. ice water content from CloudSat, high cloud fraction from CALIPSO and MODIS, latent heating from TRMM, cloud ice mixing ratio from MERRA) are presented in this study. The tropospheric temperature from reanalysis product of MERRA and NCEP are also analyzed. Furthermore, the linkages between cloud microphysics production rates and dynamics, which are important for North–South tropospheric temperature gradient for maintaining the ISM circulation, are also discussed. The study demonstrates the microphysical process rates, which are actually responsible for the cloud hydrometeors and precipitation formation on the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations timescale. Cloud to rain water auto-conversion and snow accretion rates are the dominant processes followed by the rain accretion. All these tendency terms replicates the similar spatial patterns as that of precipitation. The quantification of microphysical process rates and precipitation over different regions are shown here. The freezing rate is also imperative for the formation of cloud ice as revealed by the observation. Freezing rates at upper level and snow accretion at middle level may have effect on latent heating release. Further it can modulate the north–south temperature gradient which can influence the large-scale monsoon dynamics. The rain water evaporation is also considered as a key aspect for controlling the low level moisture convergence (source of water vapor) in ISM. This study has highlighted the importance of detailed microphysical production rates for warm and mixed-phase cloud processes, which is a major source of uncertainty in the climate models. Better understanding of these processes will definitely add value to the present generation climate models. Therefore the hypothesis/pathway emerged from the present study may be helpful for the future model development research.

Influence of preonset land atmospheric conditions on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

A possible link between preonset land atmospheric conditions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is explored. It is shown that, the preonset positive (negative) rainfall anomaly over northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran is associated with decrease (increase) in ISMR, primarily in the months of June and July, which in turn affects the seasonal mean. ISMR in the months of June and July is also strongly linked with the preonset 2 m air temperature over the same regions. The preonset rainfall/2 m air temperature variability is linked with stationary Rossby wave response, which is clearly evident in the wave activity flux diagnostics. As the predictability of Indian summer monsoon relies mainly on the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the found link may further enhance our ability to predict the monsoon, particularly during a non-ENSO year.

Effect of cloud microphysics on Indian summer monsoon precipitating clouds: A coupled climate modeling study

The quest for one of the most dominant processes controlling the large-scale circulations in the tropics is unraveled. The impact of cloud microphysical processes is known to have effects on rainfall and local atmospheric thermodynamics, however, its effect on the prevailing mean circulations is not yet studied. Two sets of coupled global climate model experiments (ICE and NO ICE microphysics) reveal that ice microphysics improves the strength of the Hadley circulation with respect to observation. Results pinpoint that ICE simulation enhances high cloud fraction (global tropics: ~59 %, India: ~51 %) and stratiform rain (global tropics: ~5 %, India: ~15 %) contribution. ICE and NO ICE cloud microphysics impacts differently on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), tropospheric temperature, surface shortwave and longwave radiation. The effect of ice microphysics reduces OLR, which signifies deeper convection in the ICE run. The global annual average of the net radiation flux (shortwave and longwave) at the surface in ICE run (108.1 W/m2) is close to the observation (106 W/m2), which is overestimated in NO ICE run (112 W/m2). The result of apparent heat source term over the land and ocean surface eventually modifies regional Hadley circulation. Thus, the effect of ice microphysics in the global coupled model is important not only because of microphysics but also due to the radiation feedbacks. Therefore, better ice-phase microphysics is required in the new generation of climate forecast model, which may lead to improvements in the simulation of monsoon.

Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere Model

Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset and the annual cycle.

Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2)

This study explores the role played by ocean processes in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and compares the observed findings with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-coupled model Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The excess and deficit ISMR clearly brings out the distinct signatures in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, thermocline and mixed layer depth over north Indian Ocean. CFSv2 is successful in simulating SSH anomalies, especially over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal region. CFSv2 captures observed findings of SSH anomalies during flood and drought (e.g., Rossby wave propagation which reaches western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during flood years, Rossby wave propagation which did not reach western BoB during drought). It highlights the ability of CFSv2 to simulate the basic ocean processes which governs the SSH variability. These differences are basically generated by upwelling and downwelling caused by the equatorial and coastal Kelvin and Rossby waves, thereby causing difference in SSH anomaly and thermocline, and subsequently modifying the convection centers, which dictates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent region. Since the observed SSH anomaly and thermal structure show distinct characteristic features with respect to strong and weak ISMR variability, the assimilation of real ocean data in terms of satellite products (like SSHA from AVISO/SARAL) bestow great promise for the future improvement.

Effects of multilayer snow scheme on the simulation of snow: Offline Noah and coupled with NCEP CFSv2

Wound healing is an inherent response resulting in the restoration of tissue integrity. It is a complex process involving cell migration, proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, and the synthesis and remodeling of the extracellular matrix (ECM). The dermal tissue is an important component of skin that acts as a connecting link between the epidermis and hypodermis. The appearance of scars and contractures after autologous split-thickness skin transplantation or single epidermis diaphragm transplantation for full skin defects indicates that the dermal tissue plays an important role in skin regeneration. Theoretically, dermis cannot regenerate like the liver, bone and epidermis after being destroyed by burns or avulsion. Scarring is hard to avoid during the process of natural healing. However, if the dermis could be reconstructed perfectly, this would be a breakthrough in the methods used for wound healing. In this review, we summarize recent research about dermal regeneration and discuss the probability of advances in the field.