Arash Ghoddousi

Assessing the Role of Livestock in Big Cat Prey Choice Using Spatiotemporal Availability Patterns

Livestock is represented in big cat diets throughout the world. Husbandry approaches aim to reduce depredation, which may influence patterns of prey choice, but whether felids have a preference for livestock or not often remains unclear as most studies ignore livestock availability. We assessed prey choice of the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Golestan National Park, Iran, where conflict over livestock depredation occurs. We analyzed leopard diet (77 scats) and assessed wild and domestic prey abundance by line transect sampling (186 km), camera-trapping (2777 camera days), double-observer point-counts (64 scans) and questionnaire surveys (136 respondents). Based on interviews with 18 shepherds, we estimated monthly grazing time outside six villages with 96 conflict cases to obtain a small livestock (domestic sheep and goat) availability coefficient. Using this coefficient, which ranged between 0.40 and 0.63 for different villages, we estimated the numbers of sheep and goats available to leopard depredation. Leopard diet consisted mainly of wild boar (Sus scrofa) (50.2% biomass consumed), but bezoar goat (Capra aegagrus) was the most preferred prey species (Ij = 0.73), whereas sheep and goats were avoided (Ij = -0.54). When absolute sheep and goat numbers (~11250) were used instead of the corrected ones (~6392), avoidance of small livestock appeared to be even stronger (Ij = -0.71). We suggest that future assessments of livestock choice by felids should incorporate such case-specific corrections for spatiotemporal patterns of availability, which may vary with husbandry methods. Such an approach increases our understanding of human-felid conflict dynamics and the role of livestock in felid diets.

The status of the Endangered Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor in Bamu National Park, Iran.

We describe the use of camera-trapping with capture-recapture, occupancy and visitation rate modelling to study the size, demographic structure and distribution of the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor in Bamu National Park, southern Iran. A total sampling effort of 1,012 trap-nights yielded photo-captures of four adults, two subadult individuals and a cub over 21 sampling occasions. The leopard population size estimated by the M(h) model and jackknife estimator was 6.00 ± SE 0.24 individuals. This gives a density of 1.87 ± SE 0.07 leopards per 100 km 2 . Detection probability was constant and low and, as a result, estimated occupancy rate was significantly higher than that predicted from photographic capture sites alone. Occupancy was 56% of the protected area and visitation rates were 0.01–0.05 visits per day. The most imminent threats to leopards in Bamu are poaching and habitat fragmentation.

Assessment of human–leopard conflict in Machiara National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

Livestock depredation by leopards is one of the key conservation issues in landscapes with limited resources worldwide. Any attempts to mitigate human–leopard conflict and conserve the species in conflict should be based on an unequivocal understanding of the conflict patterns. A household survey was conducted with an intention to quantify livestock losses resulting from depredation by leopards in and around the Machiara National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan. A total of 301 livestock were killed between June 2007 and August 2008 by leopards. The extent of loss varied in different months, with maximum killing occurring in the month of May. Small-bodied livestock such as goats and sheep were more vulnerable than large-bodied cattle. Goats were killed in significantly higher numbers as compared to other livestock. Domestic animals were killed more frequently at night as compared to other times of the day. There was a significant effect of the nighttime protection measures on depredation. Most attacks happened in valleys and in areas far from the forests. Factors most closely associated with livestock depredation included decline of natural prey, herding practices, guarding especially during the nighttime, and repeated use of pastures where predators were known to be hunting actively. Attitudes of the local community towards leopards were largely negative, and further efforts should be made to improve support for carnivore conservation. We suggest widespread local community education and proactive human–leopard conflict management, particularly through adopting carnivore-friendly livestock protection measures.

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard ( Panthera pardus ) Predation on Domestic Animals

Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (Panthera pardus) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors.

Precision and reliability of indirect population assessments for the Caspian red deer Cervus elaphus maral

The elusive Caspian red deer Cervus elaphus maral lives at low densities in rugged forest habitats of the Caucasus and the south Caspian region, and its declining population requires urgent attention. We here address the precision and reliability of dung counts (fecal standing crop approach FSC) and camera trapping (random encounter model REM) for estimating its population size. We surveyed 36 km of strip transects arranged in systematic random design and applied 1585 camera trap nights of effort in the mountainous forest habitats of Golestan National Park, Iran. We also conducted a dung decay analysis of 80 samples. Dung decay rates were not habitat-specific and the mean time to decay was 141.8 ± 15.1 days, i.e. only ca 52% of the most reliable estimate available for red deer dung. Estimated deer population size and density from dung counts was lower (194 ±46 individuals, 0.46 ±0.11 individuals km-2, 2012–2013) than from REM (257 ±84 individuals, 0.61 ± 0.20 individuals km-2, 2011), but this difference was insignificant. Both these estimates confirm a sharp decline of the population from an estimated 2096 animals in the 1970s. Density estimates reached a stable level and were most precise at a sampling effort of 15 transects (FSC) and 1345 camera trap-days (REM). Our results confirm that FSC and REM can both be reliable for assessing populations of Cervidae.

The decline of ungulate populations in Iranian protected areas calls for urgent action against poaching

Poaching is cryptically but rapidly driving many species towards extinction. Knowledge of population trends of exploited species and incentives for poaching is necessary to inform appropriate conservation measures. We estimated the abundance of four ungulate species in Golestan National Park, Iran, the countrys oldest protected area, where poaching of ungulates is widespread. We used line transect surveys (186 km), camera trapping (2,777 camera-nights), point counts (64 scans) and dung counts (along 38 km), and compared population estimates with those from earlier records. We also investigated the incentives for poaching, using a semi-structured interview survey. Population estimates for 2011–2014 indicated a 66–89% decline in three ungulate species (bezoar goat Capra aegagrus , red deer Cervus elaphus and urial Ovis vignei ) compared to 1970–1978. Only wild boar Sus scrofa showed a population increase (of 58%) during the same period, possibly facilitated by religious restrictions regarding the consumption of this species. The incentives for poaching were categorized (in a non-ordinal manner) as subsistence, pleasure, tradition, trade of wild meat, and conflict with conservation regulations and bodies. The decline in hunted ungulates in this Park appears to be the result of rampant poaching, and a similar trend is evident in other protected areas in the country. We suggest the adoption of participatory conservation strategies, improvement of law enforcement practices and cooperation with international experts to reduce poaching in these protected areas. Taking into account the incentives for poaching, a combination of economic and non-economic strategies should be considered.

Quantity Does Not Always Mean Quality: The Importance of Qualitative Social Science in Conservation Research

ABSTRACT Qualitative methods are important to gain a deep understanding of complex problems and poorly researched areas. They can be particularly useful to help explain underlying conservation problems. However, the significance in choosing and justifying appropriate methodological frameworks in conservation studies should be given more attention to ensure data are collected and analysed appropriately. We explain when, why, and how qualitative methods should be used and explain sampling strategies in qualitative studies. To improve familiarity with qualitative methods among natural scientists, we recommend expanding training in social sciences and increasing collaboration with social scientists. Given the scale of human impacts on the environment, this type of nuanced analytical skill is critical for progressing biodiversity conservation efforts.

Effects of shepherds and dogs on livestock depredation by leopards (Panthera pardus) in north-eastern Iran

Human-carnivore conflicts over livestock depredation are increasingly common, yet little is understood about the role of husbandry in conflict mitigation. As shepherds and guarding dogs are most commonly used to curb carnivore attacks on grazing livestock, evaluation and improvement of these practices becomes an important task. We addressed this issue by studying individual leopard (Panthera pardus) attacks on sheep and goats in 34 villages near Golestan National Park, Iran. We obtained and analyzed data on 39 attacks, which included a total loss of 31 sheep and 36 goats in 17 villages. We applied non-parametric testing, Poisson Generalized Linear Modelling (GLM) and model selection to assess how numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack are associated with the presence and absence of shepherds and dogs during attacks, depredation in previous years, villages, seasons, ethnic groups, numbers of sheep and goats kept in villages, and distances from villages to the nearest protected areas. We found that 95.5% of losses were inflicted in forests when sheep and goats were accompanied by shepherds (92.5% of losses) and dogs (77.6%). Leopards tended to kill more sheep and goats per attack (surplus killing) when dogs were absent in villages distant from protected areas, but still inflicted most losses when dogs were present, mainly in villages near protected areas. No other variables affected numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack. These results indicate that local husbandry practices are ineffectual and the mere presence of shepherds and guarding dogs is not enough to secure protection. Shepherds witnessed leopard attacks, but could not deter them while dogs did not exhibit guarding behavior and were sometimes killed by leopards. In an attempt to make practical, low-cost and socially acceptable improvements in local husbandry, we suggest that dogs are raised to create a strong social bond with livestock, shepherds use only best available dogs, small flocks are aggregated into larger ones and available shepherds herd these larger flocks together. Use of deterrents and avoidance of areas close to Golestan and in central, core areas of neighboring protected areas is also essential to keep losses down.

Diet of Asiatic black bear in its westernmost distribution range, southern Iran

Abstract We opportunistically collected and analyzed 80 scats of the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) from den entrances and other areas at 2 sites within Hormozgan Province, Iran, from March 2010 to February 2011. We identified 27 food items dominated by cultivated date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) fruit, oriental hornet (Vespa orientalis), and Christs thorn jujube (Ziziphus spina-christi) fruit with frequency of occurrence 55.0%, 30.0%, and 20.0%; and percentage volume 75.0%, 55.8%, and 86.7%, respectively. Our study highlights the potential importance of human-related foods to Asiatic black bear diets. Our findings may help conservation managers to identify areas of notable potential conflict for Asiatic black bears and implement conflict-reducing measures such as installing better protective fences for reducing horticulture loss.

Global patterns in biomass models describing prey consumption by big cats

Widespread prey depletion forces carnivores to rely more on livestock, which may lead to increased persecution by humans. Reliable quantification of livestock consumption is essential for understanding depredation scales, but a comparative analysis of extant biomass models used for this purpose has never been done before. We conducted a global meta-analysis of two linear and three non-linear biomass models used to estimate consumption of prey biomass and individuals by seven big cat species. We applied the z-test to perform pairwise comparisons of estimates produced by five models for each prey record. Further, we used logistic regression to assess the effects of species of big cats and their prey, scat sample size, prey body mass, and study sites on significantly different and similar estimates. The analysis of 769 prey records from 47 sites demonstrated that, in over 95% of cases, linear and non-linear biomass models produced similar estimates of prey biomass and individuals consumed. Significantly different estimates of prey biomass consumed (in 1.5% of cases) and prey individuals consumed (4%) were obtained only in certain study sites and for a few big cat species (tiger Panthera tigris, leopard Panthera pardus, and puma Puma concolor). Due to the paucity of different estimates, the effects of predictors could not be ascertained. Our study demonstrated that linear models tend to estimate higher biomass of large prey, lower biomass of medium-sized prey and fewer individuals of large and medium-sized prey consumed than non-linear models. This disagreement in estimates suggests that the numbers of livestock lost to depredation can be underestimated by linear models, and that re-calculation by non-linear models is required. However, the difference between estimates produced by linear and non-linear models is generally small and such re-calculation may be recommended only for tiger, puma and leopard in certain areas.