Igor Khorozyan

Assessing the Role of Livestock in Big Cat Prey Choice Using Spatiotemporal Availability Patterns

Livestock is represented in big cat diets throughout the world. Husbandry approaches aim to reduce depredation, which may influence patterns of prey choice, but whether felids have a preference for livestock or not often remains unclear as most studies ignore livestock availability. We assessed prey choice of the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Golestan National Park, Iran, where conflict over livestock depredation occurs. We analyzed leopard diet (77 scats) and assessed wild and domestic prey abundance by line transect sampling (186 km), camera-trapping (2777 camera days), double-observer point-counts (64 scans) and questionnaire surveys (136 respondents). Based on interviews with 18 shepherds, we estimated monthly grazing time outside six villages with 96 conflict cases to obtain a small livestock (domestic sheep and goat) availability coefficient. Using this coefficient, which ranged between 0.40 and 0.63 for different villages, we estimated the numbers of sheep and goats available to leopard depredation. Leopard diet consisted mainly of wild boar (Sus scrofa) (50.2% biomass consumed), but bezoar goat (Capra aegagrus) was the most preferred prey species (Ij = 0.73), whereas sheep and goats were avoided (Ij = -0.54). When absolute sheep and goat numbers (~11250) were used instead of the corrected ones (~6392), avoidance of small livestock appeared to be even stronger (Ij = -0.71). We suggest that future assessments of livestock choice by felids should incorporate such case-specific corrections for spatiotemporal patterns of availability, which may vary with husbandry methods. Such an approach increases our understanding of human-felid conflict dynamics and the role of livestock in felid diets.

Presence–absence surveys of prey and their use in predicting leopard (Panthera pardus) densities: a case study from Armenia

It is important to predict how many individuals of a predator species can survive in a given area on the basis of prey sufficiency and to compare predictive estimates with actual numbers to understand whether or not key threats are related to prey availability. Rugged terrain and low detection probabilities do not allow for the use of traditional prey count techniques in mountain areas. We used presence-absence occupancy modeling and camera-trapping to estimate the abundance and densities of prey species and regression analysis to predict leopard (Panthera pardus) densities from estimated prey biomass in the mountains of the Nuvadi area, Meghri Ridge, southern Armenia. The prey densities were 12.94 ± 2.18 individuals km(-2) for the bezoar goat (Capra aegagrus), 6.88 ± 1.56 for the wild boar (Sus scrofa) and 0.44 ± 0.20 for the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). The detection probability of the prey was a strong function of the activity patterns, and was highest in diurnal bezoar goats (0.59 ± 0.09). Based on robust regression, the estimated total ungulate prey biomass (720.37 ± 142.72 kg km(-2) ) can support a leopard density of 7. 18 ± 3.06 individuals 100 km(-2) . The actual leopard density is only 0.34 individuals 100 km(-2) (i.e. one subadult male recorded over the 296.9 km(2) ), estimated from tracking and camera-trapping. The most plausible explanation for this discrepancy between predicted and actual leopard density is that poaching and disturbance caused by livestock breeding, plant gathering, deforestation and human-induced wild fires are affecting the leopard population in Armenia.

The status of the Endangered Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor in Bamu National Park, Iran.

We describe the use of camera-trapping with capture-recapture, occupancy and visitation rate modelling to study the size, demographic structure and distribution of the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor in Bamu National Park, southern Iran. A total sampling effort of 1,012 trap-nights yielded photo-captures of four adults, two subadult individuals and a cub over 21 sampling occasions. The leopard population size estimated by the M(h) model and jackknife estimator was 6.00 ± SE 0.24 individuals. This gives a density of 1.87 ± SE 0.07 leopards per 100 km 2 . Detection probability was constant and low and, as a result, estimated occupancy rate was significantly higher than that predicted from photographic capture sites alone. Occupancy was 56% of the protected area and visitation rates were 0.01–0.05 visits per day. The most imminent threats to leopards in Bamu are poaching and habitat fragmentation.

The Leopard, Panthera pardus, (Carnivora: Felidae) and its resilience to human pressure in the Caucasus

Abstract Widespread in the Caucasus until the mid-19th century, the Leopard, Panthera pardus, has become extinct in many areas of this region but is still able to survive in some others. We have compiled a database of 218 Leopard records dated 1861–2007 throughout the Caucasus (Russian North Caucasus, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia). Of these, 77 records of killings, 4 records of photo-captures (10 pictures), and 8 records of scat origin proof by faecal bile acid thin-layer chromatography were used as the most reliable indicators of the Leopard’s presence. We discuss the history of the Leopard’s postglacial emergence in the Caucasus, its habitats, scales of eradication, trends in Leopard extermination measures and range shrinkage within the study period, in separate sections under each of the four countries of the Caucasus. All recent and current Leopard records in the Caucasus are confined to central and eastern parts of the North Caucasus, south-eastern and north-eastern Georgia, south-eastern and western parts of Azerbaijan, and south-western and southern Armenia. All these parts of the range, except for the Talysh Mts in Azerbaijan, must be connected with southern Armenia which, in its turn, is linked with the much larger population in north-western Iran. The Talysh Mts stand isolated from the Caucasus Mountains and are directly linked with Iran.

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard ( Panthera pardus ) Predation on Domestic Animals

Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (Panthera pardus) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors.

Using Thin-Layer Chromatography of Fecal Bile Acids to Study the Leopard ( Panthera pardus ciscaucasica ) Population

Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) of fecal bile acids has been used to confirm visual identification of scat samples found in Armenia in 2004–2005 and attributed to the leopard (Panthera pardus ciscaucasica). The results of TLC do not differ significantly from those of visual identification, confirming the reliability of the latter method. Taking into account the frequency and distribution of fresh scats, two priority areas for leopard conservation have been identified: the Central and Khachadzor districts of the Khosrov Reserve and the Nuvadi-Shvanidzor area in eastern Meghri Ridge.

Precision and reliability of indirect population assessments for the Caspian red deer Cervus elaphus maral

The elusive Caspian red deer Cervus elaphus maral lives at low densities in rugged forest habitats of the Caucasus and the south Caspian region, and its declining population requires urgent attention. We here address the precision and reliability of dung counts (fecal standing crop approach FSC) and camera trapping (random encounter model REM) for estimating its population size. We surveyed 36 km of strip transects arranged in systematic random design and applied 1585 camera trap nights of effort in the mountainous forest habitats of Golestan National Park, Iran. We also conducted a dung decay analysis of 80 samples. Dung decay rates were not habitat-specific and the mean time to decay was 141.8 ± 15.1 days, i.e. only ca 52% of the most reliable estimate available for red deer dung. Estimated deer population size and density from dung counts was lower (194 ±46 individuals, 0.46 ±0.11 individuals km-2, 2012–2013) than from REM (257 ±84 individuals, 0.61 ± 0.20 individuals km-2, 2011), but this difference was insignificant. Both these estimates confirm a sharp decline of the population from an estimated 2096 animals in the 1970s. Density estimates reached a stable level and were most precise at a sampling effort of 15 transects (FSC) and 1345 camera trap-days (REM). Our results confirm that FSC and REM can both be reliable for assessing populations of Cervidae.

The decline of ungulate populations in Iranian protected areas calls for urgent action against poaching

Poaching is cryptically but rapidly driving many species towards extinction. Knowledge of population trends of exploited species and incentives for poaching is necessary to inform appropriate conservation measures. We estimated the abundance of four ungulate species in Golestan National Park, Iran, the countrys oldest protected area, where poaching of ungulates is widespread. We used line transect surveys (186 km), camera trapping (2,777 camera-nights), point counts (64 scans) and dung counts (along 38 km), and compared population estimates with those from earlier records. We also investigated the incentives for poaching, using a semi-structured interview survey. Population estimates for 2011–2014 indicated a 66–89% decline in three ungulate species (bezoar goat Capra aegagrus , red deer Cervus elaphus and urial Ovis vignei ) compared to 1970–1978. Only wild boar Sus scrofa showed a population increase (of 58%) during the same period, possibly facilitated by religious restrictions regarding the consumption of this species. The incentives for poaching were categorized (in a non-ordinal manner) as subsistence, pleasure, tradition, trade of wild meat, and conflict with conservation regulations and bodies. The decline in hunted ungulates in this Park appears to be the result of rampant poaching, and a similar trend is evident in other protected areas in the country. We suggest the adoption of participatory conservation strategies, improvement of law enforcement practices and cooperation with international experts to reduce poaching in these protected areas. Taking into account the incentives for poaching, a combination of economic and non-economic strategies should be considered.

Using Geographical Mapping and Occupancy Modeling to Study the Distribution of the Critically Endangered Leopard (Panthera pardus) Population in Armenia

Space limitations arising from human activities affect demographic structure and performance of mammalian populations and thus reduce their viability. This is especially true for wide-ranging wild cats (family Felidae) which generally lead solitary lives and require large tracts of good-quality habitats for survival (Sunquist and Sunquist 2001). As human activities leave more and more mosaics of modified lands behind, felid populations become fragmented and further impaired by the small and often unviable size of patches necessitating more complicated dispersal of individuals between patches (Reed 2004).

Effects of shepherds and dogs on livestock depredation by leopards (Panthera pardus) in north-eastern Iran

Human-carnivore conflicts over livestock depredation are increasingly common, yet little is understood about the role of husbandry in conflict mitigation. As shepherds and guarding dogs are most commonly used to curb carnivore attacks on grazing livestock, evaluation and improvement of these practices becomes an important task. We addressed this issue by studying individual leopard (Panthera pardus) attacks on sheep and goats in 34 villages near Golestan National Park, Iran. We obtained and analyzed data on 39 attacks, which included a total loss of 31 sheep and 36 goats in 17 villages. We applied non-parametric testing, Poisson Generalized Linear Modelling (GLM) and model selection to assess how numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack are associated with the presence and absence of shepherds and dogs during attacks, depredation in previous years, villages, seasons, ethnic groups, numbers of sheep and goats kept in villages, and distances from villages to the nearest protected areas. We found that 95.5% of losses were inflicted in forests when sheep and goats were accompanied by shepherds (92.5% of losses) and dogs (77.6%). Leopards tended to kill more sheep and goats per attack (surplus killing) when dogs were absent in villages distant from protected areas, but still inflicted most losses when dogs were present, mainly in villages near protected areas. No other variables affected numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack. These results indicate that local husbandry practices are ineffectual and the mere presence of shepherds and guarding dogs is not enough to secure protection. Shepherds witnessed leopard attacks, but could not deter them while dogs did not exhibit guarding behavior and were sometimes killed by leopards. In an attempt to make practical, low-cost and socially acceptable improvements in local husbandry, we suggest that dogs are raised to create a strong social bond with livestock, shepherds use only best available dogs, small flocks are aggregated into larger ones and available shepherds herd these larger flocks together. Use of deterrents and avoidance of areas close to Golestan and in central, core areas of neighboring protected areas is also essential to keep losses down.