Arend Ligtenberg

An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local scales, while its application in regional studies is limited. This paper describes first a conceptual framework for ABM to analyse and explore regional LUCC processes. Second, the conceptual framework is represented by combining different concepts including agent typologies, farm trajectories and probabilistic decision-making processes. Finally, the framework is illustrated through a case study in the Netherlands, where processes of farm cessation, farm expansion and farm diversification are shaping the structure of the landscape. The framework is a generic, straightforward approach to analyse and explore regional LUCC with an explicit link to empirical approaches for parameterization of ABM.

Multi-actor-based land use modelling: spatial planning using agents

This paper describes a spatial planning model combining a multi-agent simulation (MAS) approach with cellular automata (CA). The model includes individual actor behaviour according to a bottom-up modelling concept. Spatial planning intentions and related decision making of planning actors is defined by agents. CA is used to infer the knowledge needed by the agents to make decisions about the future of a spatial organisation in a certain area. The innovative item of this approach offers a framework for modelling complex land use planning process by extending CA approach with MAS. The modelling approach is demonstrated by the implementation of a pilot model using JAVA and the SWARM agent modelling toolkit. The pilot model itself is applied to a study area near the city of Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Validation of an agent-based model for spatial planning: A role-playing approach

This paper discusses the validation of an agent-based model for simulating a multi-actor spatial planning process. After a general discussion about the pitfalls of validating agent-based models that simulate complex spatial systems, we briefly present a validation method based on role playing. The method is designed to generate insights that can improve our understanding of the behaviour of socio-spatial systems in a planning context. The method was tested by carrying out an experimental role play to validate individual agent tasks, focusing on the ability of agents to generate beliefs and preferences about their environment. We conclude that using role play as a validation technique can provide valuable information about the performance of the model. The insights gained aid identification and understanding of those parts of a multi-actor spatial planning system that are currently poorly understood and poorly represented by the agents.

Visual analytics methods for movement data

All the power of computational techniques for data processing and analysis is worthless without human analysts choosing appropriate methods depending on data characteristics, setting parameters and controlling the work of the methods, interpreting results obtained, understanding what to do next, reasoning, and drawing conclusions. To enable effective work of human analysts, relevant information must be presented to them in an adequate way. Since visual representation of information greatly promotes man’s perception and cognition, visual displays of data and results of computational processing play a very important role in analysis. However, a simple combination of visualization with computational analysis is not sufficient. The challenge is to build analytical tools and environments where the power of computational methods is synergistically combined with man’s background knowledge, flexible thinking, imagination, and capacity for insight. This is the main goal of the emerging multidisciplinary research field of Visual Analytics (Thomas and Cook [45]), which is defined as the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces. Analysis of movement data is an appropriate target for a synergy of diverse technologies, including visualization, computations, database queries, data transformations, and other computer-based operations. In this chapter, we try to define what combination of visual and computational techniques can support the analysis of massive movement data and how these techniques should interact. Before that, we shall briefly overview the existing computer-based tools and techniques for visual analysis of movement data.

Simulating Knowledge Sharing in Spatial Planning: An Agent-Based Approach:

This paper presents a multiagent system (MAS) that simulates a multiactor interactive spatial-planning process. The MAS extends an existing approach with the principle of sharing knowledge between participating actors while trying to create a shared vision. In the simulation, actors are modelled as agents. They have desires and preferences regarding the future development of their environment. These are used to develop their individual views on what areas are eligible for change. A facilitator agent coordinates the exchange of information by indicating possible solutions and conflicts to the actor agents. The simulation is demonstrated for an allocation problem in a pilot area in the southeast of the Netherlands. Four different scenarios are implemented, which demonstrate the impact of cooperation and hierarchy during an interactive spatial-planning process. Although the model is kept limited in terms of input data, the results show its potential for providing insight into the relations and interaction between actors, rather than predicting the results of an interactive spatial-planning process.

STEPP: A Strategic Tool for Integrating Environmental Aspects into Planning Procedures

This chapter describes a research project that aims to improve the quality of physical plans on a local level and to create a basis for communication between disciplines and stakeholders that are dealing with environmental and spatial planning. A GIS tool for integrating environmental aspects into planning procedures has been developed. Although the research shows the potential for the use of the tool in practice, we still are very far away from supporting participatory planning. The research clearly indicates that the current planning practice is not well equipped to deal with real-time participation.

Trends in consultation and public participation within environmental impact assessment in Kenya

The objective of this study was to document trends in public participation within environmental impact assessment (EIA) in Kenya, using a Consultation and Public Participation Index (CPPI) developed for the analysis of EIA Study Reports submitted to the Environment Authority between 2002 and 2010. Results indicated that public participation remained relatively low, with the highest score of 1.65 in 2010, out of a possible score of 5. Scores for individual dimensions within the index fluctuated during the study period, with participation methods and type of participants scoring the highest, following increased emphasis by the Environment Authority on the conducting and reporting of public participation. This was followed by venue, notification and language used, in that order, which were often not reported, and, when reported, choices per dimension were limited. This is the first time this index has been used, yet it serves as a good starting point to evaluate public participation within EIA.

Sensing a changing world.

The workshop “Sensing a Changing World” was held in Wageningen, The Netherlands, from November 19–21, 2008. The main goal of the workshop was to explore and discuss recent developments in sensors and (wireless) sensor networks for monitoring environmental processes and human spatial behavior in a changing world. The challenge is then to develop concepts and applications that can provide timely and on-demand knowledge to end-users in different domains over a range of different spatial and temporal scales. During this workshop over 50 participants, representing 15 countries, presented and discussed their recent research. The workshop provided a broad overview of state-of-the-art research in a broad range of application fields: oceanography, air quality, biodiversity and vegetation, health, tourism, water management, and agriculture. In addition the workshop identified the future research challenges. One of the outcomes of the workshop was a special issue in the journal

Enhancing the Experience of the Landscape: The Digital Dowsing Rod

This research presents the Digital Dowsing Rod (DIWI1) a framework of a Location Based Service (LBS) to explore the cultural heritage of a region. The DIWI consists of a service oriented architecture (SOA), a web-client, a content management system and a mobile client based on smart phones and windows mobile technology. The chosen set-up allows for an easy management of the content and allows for a relative easy extension of the system by additional data-sources.

Simulating Opinion Dynamics in Land Use Planning

During a process of spatial planning multiple actors meet in a decision making process trying to satisfy as much as possible their individual desires and goals. Diffusion of opinions is considered an important factor in this process. A behavioural approach that represent the diffusion and distribution of opinions are absent in most spatial ABMs. This research presents a novel approach to simulating spatial opinions dynamics based on an agent based implementation of the Deffuant Weisbuch model. The model explicitly deals with spatial heterogeneity in opinions as well as heterogeneity in the willingness of agents to adapt their opinions. The model is demonstrated for a hypothetical spatial allocation problem in a study area in the south-east of the Netherlands. Three different scenarios representing different levels of willingness to cooperate within the population of agents are worked out. The results showed that explicit spatial opinion patterns can be simulated which are in line with what would be expected from the scenarios.