Ariane Szafarz

SOLUTIONS OF LINEAR RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS MODELS

Linear rational expectations models generally have a large number of solutions. It is thus important to describe them exhaustively in order to study their properties and subsequently estimate which solution best fits the data. In this paper, a global approach is suggested allowing a simultaneous treatment of all possible cases. The fundamental concepts are the revision processes appearing in the procedure of updating expectations. It isfound that the set of solutions is completely described by using a limitednumber of these processes. We show how the method may be applied to determine the set of stationary solutions admitting an infinite moving-average representation. We give a natural parametrization of this set and discuss the exact number of independent parameters.

Testing for spurious causality in exchange rates

Abstract In this paper, we distinguish between the ‘true’ and ‘spurious’ components of observed causalities. ‘True’ refers to the underlying continuous-time model while ‘spurious’ designates a term arising from the discretization of the model. We provide a test for making the difference between these two components, and thus testing for spurious causality. An application to exchange rates emphasizes the importance of the phenomenon. Indeed, it puts forward that the causalities observed at finite frequencies from the German mark to the Swiss franc are actually spurious.

Crisis-Robust Bond Portfolios

This article defines a “crisis robust” portfolio that satisfies the minimal crisis-to-quiet time volatility ratio. This type of portfolio is less demanding for the investor than a regime-wise asset allocation. Although general, the concept of a crisis-robust portfolio is especially pertinent when applied to the bond market, which offers a flight-to-quality trade-off during crises (all volatilities increase but most correlations decrease). Using three categories of bonds (sovereign, investment-grade corporate, and high-yield corporate) in the U.S. and Eurozone for the 1998–2007 period, we demonstrate the composition of crisis-robust portfolios and discuss the stabilizing role played by low-quality bonds during crises.

Does Commercial Microfinance Belong to the Financial Sector? Lessons from the Stock Market

This paper is the first to draw a global picture of worldwide microfinance equity by taking full advantage of daily quoted prices. We revisit previous findings showing that investors should consider microfinance as a self-standing sector. Our results are threefold. First, microfinance has become less risky and more closely correlated with the financial sector. This convergence might be followed by a decline in the proportion of women borrowers. Second, microfinance and finance shares have equivalent currency exposure. Last, introducing a self-standing microfinance sector presents few diversification benefits. This paper confirms that microfinance has changed dramatically during the last decade.

Credit to Women Entrepreneurs: The Curse of the Trustworthier Sex

Women entrepreneurs are known not only to reimburse loans swifter than men, but also to receive smaller loans. However, on average women have smaller-scope business projects and are poorer than men. A deeper investigation is thus required in order to assess the existence of gender discrimination in small-business lending. This is precisely the aim of this paper. Its contribution is twofold. Firstly, it proposes a new estimation method for assessing discrimination in loan allocation. This method operationalizes the theoretical “double standard” approach developed by Ferguson and Peters (1995, Journal of Finance). Secondly, this paper applies the new methodology to an exceptionally rich database from a Brazilian microfinance institution. The empirical results point to gender discrimination. Additionally, it is shown that reducing the information asymmetry through relationship brings no remedy to the curse of the trustworthier sex.

Subsidy Uncertainty and Microfinance Mission Drift

This paper shines light on subsidy-dependent microfinance institutions (MFIs). Firstly, our model shows that subsidy uncertainty can have pervasive effects on MFIs’ poverty-reduction mission. In particular, we argue that supply-driven uncertainty can lead to mission drift. MFIs maximize utility by serving the poor on the one hand, but must be financially sustainable on the other. Under the fear that subsidies can dry up, MFIs lend to wealthier clients in order to build precautionary savings. In a subsidy-uncertain world this is a rational reaction by MFIs struggling to preserve a pool of poor clients. We show that the incidence of mission drift increases with subsidy uncertainty. Secondly, we test the predictions of the model on original data collected from rating agencies assessment reports on 230 MFIs active in 60 countries over the period 1999-2006. Using both cross-section and panel-data regressions, we estimate the effect of subsidies on poverty reduction as proxied by average loan size, interest rates, and outreach. Our results suggest that more subsidies are associated with smaller loan sizes, but that higher subsidy uncertainty is positively correlated with higher interest rates. We also find that subsidy uncertainty is negatively correlated with outreach.

Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the content of the information set used by the agents in the Warsaw Stock Exchange - WSE. Three “candidate variables” are examined — consumers’ prices, the zloty/US

Microfinance and gender: issues, challenges and the road ahead

exchange rate and the refinancing rate of the National Bank of Poland — with respect to three WSE stocks, from different sectors of the economy. The methodology employed supposes that the innovations in the price series are orthogonal to all variables within or outside the information set. Beyond the question of how to specify the agents expectations, the WSE trading rules and the high volatility period present in all monthly price series were additional problems to render it operational. Given the solutions adopted, in only three out of the nine cases tested, it was possible to reject the null that the candidate did not belong to the information set. This is a signal that macroeconomic fundamentals are still absent from the WSE.

THE RATCHET EFFECT AND THE PLANNER'S EXPECTATIONS

Abstract This special collection examines the claim that microfinance promotes gender equality. The focus is on three areas of the debate: first, the question of how successful microfinance has been in empowering women; second, whether and how negative gender discrimination operates within the sector; third, how power relations within and beyond the household shape the context and outcomes of microfinance initiatives. The papers in this collection demonstrate the divergence of circumstances and emphasise the need to go beyond the past searches for a simple narrative regarding the impact of microfinance. Rather, as the sector evolves and is incorporated into the mainstream financial system, the challenge ahead for researchers is to marshal the evidence on gendered dynamics to ensure that the gains made are built on through deeper understanding of why impact outcomes and processes differ and use this to inform new initiatives to further gender equality.

Aid Volatility and Social Performance in Microfinance

Abstract This paper discusses the occurrence of the famous ratchet effect in a Soviet-type economy. Typically, planners do not have a precise knowledge of the enterprises capacities and plans may be viewed as the planners expectations of these capacities. Whereas the existing models in the literature assume a rather crude version of the adaptive expectations hypothesis, the case for the rational expectations hypothesis is argued here. In order to assess the extent of the ratchet effect, we compare four situations combining an adaptive versus rational planner with a manager who believes that plans are formed adaptively versus rationally. With the help of a model describing the managers behavior under these four polar assumptions, it is shown that the presence of the ratchet effect strongly depends on the assumptions made about the planners expectations.