Kim Oosterlinck

French Stock exchanges and regulation during World War II

Based on archives of the French brokers, the French finance ministry and the occupying forces, this article analyses the motivations of the legal changes imposed on the French exchanges during the war. Most of the measures taken by the Vichy government were meant to stimulate the demand for French state bonds. Three main tools were used to render stocks as unattractive as possible: forced registration, imposition of a maximum threshold for stock prices and taxation. The article suggests that forced registration and the cap on maximum prices were the most efficient tools.

Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected?Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities

The emergence of the gold standard has for a long time been viewed as inevitable. Fluctuations of the gold-silver exchange rate in world markets were accused to lead to brutal and unsustainable switches of bimetallic countries’ money supplies. However, more recent work has shown that the option character of bimetallism provided a stabilizing feedback loop. Using original data, this paper provides support to the new view. Using quotation prices for Indian Government bonds, we analyze agents’ expectations between 1860 and 1890. The intuition is that the spread between gold and silver bonds issued by the same entity (India) and backed by a credible agent (Britain) is a “pure” measure of the silver risk. The analysis shows that up until 1874 markets were expecting bimetallism to last. It is only after this date that markets gradually started requiring a premium to hold silver bonds indicating their belief that gold would eventually become the only metallic standard.

Art as a Wartime Investment: Conspicuous Consumption and Discretion

The financial underperformance of art as an investment is well documented. In contrast to studies conducted on peace-time periods, this paper shows that the art market in occupied France during WWII significantly outperformed all alternative investments (bonds, equities, as well as currencies exchanged on the black market) other than gold. This suggests that art may be a good hedge against low-probability disasters. The paper further demonstrates that motives to purchase art (consumption and investment) vary over time. In his theoretical model, Mandel (2009) attributes art’s low return to the utility derived from conspicuous consumption. In occupied France during WWII, conspicuous consumption was impossible for artworks deemed “degenerate” by the Nazis. The price evolution of “degenerate” versus “non-degenerate” artworks confirms the importance of conspicuous consumption in artworks’ pricing. Eventually, the paper defines the concept of discretion, the ability to store a large amount of value in small and easily transportable goods. During wartime, illegal activities and the risk of being forced to flee the country increased the interest for discreet assets as shown by the better performance of small (and thus discreet) artworks in comparison to large ones.

Baring, Wellington and the Resurrection of French Public Finances Following Waterloo

Following Waterloo, managing French public finances represented a daunting task as the country had lost a substantial part of its population and territory and had to pay huge amounts as reparations to the victors. Despite this, in just ten years, France managed to issue substantial amounts of debt with a spread, compared to the British consol, falling from more than 400 to 100 basis points. We argue that the Duke of Wellington was key in creating an environment in which Baring had an incentive to lend to France and all actors had an incentive to see French debts reimbursed.

War, monetary reforms and the Belgian art market, 1945–1951

To investigate the link between monetary reforms and prices on the art market, this article focuses on the aftermath of the Gutt plan, a monetary purge implemented in Belgium just after World War II. On the basis of an original database of close on 3,000 artworks sold between 1945 and 1951, this article shows that, following the implementation of the Gutt plan, real prices on the art market experienced a massive drop suggesting that real prices on the art market are significantly influenced by money supply.

Identifying economic crises: insights from history

Economists have been blamed for their inability to forecast and address crises. This article attributes this inability to intertwined factors: the lack of a coherent definition of crises, the reference-class problem, the lack of imagination regarding the nature of future crises and sample-selection biases. Specifically, economists tend to adapt their views on crises to recent episodes, and omit averted and potential crises. Threshold-based definitions of crises run the risk of being ad hoc. Using historical examples, this article highlights some epistemological shortcomings of the current approach.

Assessing Portfolio Efficiency Tests: Theory, Simulations, and Applications

The recent turmoil in the financial markets has highlighted that no asset is really free of risk. Indeed, even the supposedly safest assets, namely sovereign bonds issued by developed countries, are exposed to default risk. Despite this observation most mean-variance efficiency tests are designed for universes that include a riskless asset. This paper develops a new mean-variance efficiency test based on the “vertical distance” to the efficient frontier. This test acknowledges the possibility that all assets are risky. The paper presents the asymptotic properties of our test which is then compared with two alternative mean-variance efficiency tests (Basak, Jagannathan and Sun 2002, and Levy and Roll 2010). Simulations show that our test outperforms its competitors for large samples since it exhibits lower size distortions for a comparable power. An empirical application to the US equity market shows that whatever the considered number of stocks, the market portfolio is never mean-variance efficient according to our test and the one developed by Basak, Jagannathan and Sun (2002). For the Levy and Roll (2010) test the conclusion depends on the choice of the coefficient used to assess the mean-variance trade-off. Eventually, since nowadays samples tend to be large, our test is particularly well-suited for portfolio managers.

Price formation on clandestine markets: the case of the Paris gold market during the Second World War: PRICE FORMATION ON CLANDESTINE MARKETS

Because of the scarcity of data, there are few quantitative analyses dealing with clandestine markets, despite their prime importance during wartime. This article exploits a unique database of daily prices of gold coins traded in occupied Paris in order to gain insights into the price formation on such a market. First, using data from Switzerland, we show that arbitrage took place, despite the costs and risks involved, and led to a gradual (but incomplete) convergence of gold prices. Furthermore, a study of price seasonality reveals that less strict borders controls during the weekends made the volatility of returns higher at the start of the following week. Second, on the basis of an event study, we provide evidence that laws related to black markets did not have a significant impact on the gold price, except for the most severe law passed on 8 June 1943 which greatly increased the sentences for involvement. Finally, we assess whether the so‐called coin premiums existed on this clandestine market, and show that the large price variations for one gram of fine gold contained in different coins were due to market participants’ preferences for specific gold coins.