Ariane Verdy

Sea Surface Temperature Variability along the Path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

The spatial and temporal distributions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are investigated, using monthly data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period 1980–2004. Patterns of atmospheric forcing are identified in observations of sea level pressure and air–sea heat fluxes. It is found that a significant fraction of SST variability in the ACC can be understood as a linear response to surface forcing by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and remote forcing by ENSO. The physical mechanisms rely on the interplay between atmospheric variability and mean advection by the ACC. SAM and ENSO drive a low-level anomalous circulation pattern localized over the South Pacific Ocean, inducing surface heat fluxes and Ekman heat advection anomalies. A simple model of SST propagating in the ACC, forced with heat fluxes estimated from the reanalysis, suggests that surface heat fluxes and Ekman heat advection are equally important in driving the observed SST variability. Further diagnostics indicate that SST anomalies, generated mainly upstream of Drake Passage, are subsequently advected by the ACC and damped after a couple of years. It is suggested that SST variability along the path of the ACC is largely a passive response of the oceanic mixed layer to atmospheric forcing.

Carbon dioxide and oxygen fluxes in the Southern Ocean: Mechanisms of interannual variability

(1) We analyze the variability of air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide and oxygen in the Southern Ocean during the period 1993-2003 in a biogeochemical and physical simulation of the global ocean. Our results suggest that the nonseasonal variability is primarily driven by changes in entrainment of carbon-rich, oxygen-poor waters into the mixed layer during winter convection episodes. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), known to impact the variability of air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide, is also found to affect oxygen fluxes. We find that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also plays an important role in generating interannual variability in air-sea fluxes of carbon and oxygen. Anomalies driven by SAM and ENSO constitute a significant fraction of the simulated variability; the two climate indices are associated with surface heat fluxes, which control the modeled mixed layer depth variability. We adopt a Lagrangian view of tracers advected along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to highlight the importance of convective mixing in inducing anomalous air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide and oxygen. The idealized Lagrangian model captures the principal features of the variability simulated by the more complex model, suggesting that knowledge of entrainment, temperature, and mean geostrophic flow in the mixed layer is sufficient to obtain a first-order description of the large-scale variability in air-sea transfer of soluble gases. Distinct spatial and temporal patterns arise from the different equilibration timescales of the two gases.

Sensitivity Analysis of Reactive Ecological Dynamics

Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.

Alternative stable states in communities with intraguild predation

Intraguild predation (IGP) is a widespread ecological phenomenon in which two consumers that share a resource also engage in a predator-prey interaction. Theory on IGP predicts the occurrence of alternative stable states, but empirical evidence of such states is scarce. This raises the question of whether alternative states are a rare phenomenon that is unlikely to be observed in nature. Here we analyze a model in which the resource exhibits logistic or chemostat dynamics and consumers have saturating (Type II) functional responses. We show that alternative states can arise for a wide range of biological scenarios and that environmental constraints can make their detection difficult. Our analysis identifies three possible combinations of alternative states: (i) IG prey or IG predator, (ii) coexistence or IG predator, and (iii) coexistence or IG prey. Bifurcation diagrams reveal that alternative states are possible over large regions of the parameter space. However, they can be limited to narrow ranges along the resource productivity axis, which may make it difficult to observe the occurrence of alternative states in communities with IGP. Microcosm experiments provide a promising avenue for detecting combinations of asymptotically stable states along a productivity gradient.

Wind-Driven Sea Level Variability on the California Coast: An Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis

Effects of atmospheric forcing on coastal sea surface height near Port San Luis, central California, are investigated using a regional state estimate and its adjoint. The physical pathways for the propagation of nonlocal [O(100km)] wind stress effects are identified through adjoint sensitivity analyses, with a cost function that is localized in space so that the adjoint shows details of the propagation of sensitivities. Transfer functions between wind stress and SSH response are calculated and compared to previous work. It is found that (i) the response to local alongshore wind stress dominates on short time scales of O(1 day); (ii) the effect ofnonlocalwindsdominatesonlongertimescalesandiscarriedbycoastallytrappedwaves,aswellasinertia‐ gravity waves for offshore wind stress; and (iii) there are significant seasonal variations in the sensitivity of SSH to wind stress due to changes in stratification. In a more stratified ocean, the damping of sensitivities to local and offshore winds is reduced, allowing for a larger and longer-lasting SSH response to wind stress.

A data assimilating model for estimating Southern Ocean biogeochemistry

A Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate (B-SOSE) is introduced that includes carbon and oxygen fields as well as nutrient cycles. The state estimate is constrained with observations while maintaining closed budgets and obeying dynamical and thermodynamic balances. Observations from profiling floats, shipboard data, underway measurements, and satellites are used for assimilation. The years 2008–2012 are chosen due to the relative abundance of oxygen observations from Argo floats during this time. The skill of the state estimate at fitting the data is assessed. The agreement is best for fields that are constrained with the most observations, such as surface pCO2 in Drake Passage (44% of the variance captured) and oxygen profiles (over 60% of the variance captured at 200 and 1000 m). The validity of adjoint method optimization for coupled physical-biogeochemical state estimation is demonstrated with a series of gradient check experiments. The method is shown to be mature and ready to synthesize in situ biogeochemical observations as they become more available. Documenting the B-SOSE configuration and diagnosing the strengths and weaknesses of the solution informs usage of this product as both a climate baseline and as a way to test hypotheses. Transport of Intermediate Waters across 32°S supplies significant amounts of nitrate to the Atlantic Ocean (5.57 ± 2.94 Tmol yr−1) and Indian Ocean (5.09 ± 3.06 Tmol yr−1), but much less nitrate reaches the Pacific Ocean (1.78 ± 1.91 Tmol yr−1). Estimates of air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes south of 50°S suggest a mean uptake of 0.18 Pg C/yr for the time period analyzed.

Space and time variability of the Southern Ocean carbon budget

The upper ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration is regulated by advective and diffusive transport divergence, biological processes, freshwater and air-sea CO2 fluxes. The relative importance of these mechanisms in the Southern Ocean is uncertain, as year-round observations in this area have been limited. We use a novel physical-biogeochemical state estimate of the Southern Ocean to construct a closed DIC budget of the top 650 m and investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the different components of the carbon system. The dominant mechanisms of variability in upper ocean DIC depend on location and time and space scales considered. Advective transport is the most influential mechanism and governs the local DIC budget across the 10 day to 5-year timescales analyzed. Diffusive effects are nearly negligible. The large-scale transport structure is primarily set by up- and downwelling, though both the lateral ageostrophic and geostrophic transports are significant. In the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the carbon budget components are also influenced by the presence of topography and biological hot spots. In the subtropics, evaporation and air-sea CO2 flux primarily balances the sink due to biological production and advective transport. Finally, in the subpolar region sea ice processes, which change the seawater volume and thus the DIC concentration, compensate the large impact of the advective transport and modulate the timing of biological activity and air-sea CO2 flux.

Estimation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean State 2010–13

AbstractA data-assimilating ⅓° regional dynamical ocean model is evaluated on its ability to synthesize components of the Tropical Pacific Ocean Observing System. The four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) method adjusts initial conditions and atmospheric forcing for overlapping 4-month model runs, or hindcasts, that are then combined to give an ocean state estimate for the period 2010–13. Consistency within uncertainty with satellite SSH and Argo profiles is achieved. Comparison to independent observations from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) moorings shows that for time scales shorter than 100 days, the state estimate improves estimates of TAO temperature relative to an optimally interpolated Argo product. The improvement is greater at time scales shorter than 20 days, although unpredicted variability in the TAO temperatures implies that TAO observations provide significant information in that band. Larger discrepancies between the state estimate and independent observations from Spray g...

Correlation Lengths for Estimating the Large‐Scale Carbon and Heat Content of the Southern Ocean

The spatial correlation scales of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon, heat content, and carbon and heat exchanges with the atmosphere are estimated from a realistic numerical simulation of the Southern Ocean. Biases in the model are assessed by comparing the simulated sea surface height and temperature scales to those derived from optimally interpolated satellite measurements. While these products do not resolve all ocean scales, they are representative of the climate scale variability we aim to estimate. Results show that constraining the carbon and heat inventory between 358S and 708S on time-scales longer than 90 days requires approximately 100 optimally spaced measurement platforms: approximately one platform every 208 longitude by 68 latitude. Carbon flux has slightly longer zonal scales, and requires a coverage of approximately 308 by 68. Heat flux has much longer scales, and thus a platform distribution of approximately 908 by 108 would be sufficient. Fluxes, however, have significant subseasonal variability. For all fields, and especially fluxes, sustained measurements in time are required to prevent aliasing of the eddy signals into the longer climate scale signals. Our results imply a minimum of 100 biogeochemical-Argo floats are required to monitor the Southern Ocean carbon and heat content and air-sea exchanges on time-scales longer than 90 days. However, an estimate of formal mapping error using the current Argo array implies that in practice even an array of 600 floats (a nominal float density of about 1 every 78 longitude by 38 latitude) will result in nonnegligible uncertainty in estimating climate signals.