Arnelyn Abdon

Product Complexity and Economic Development

We rank 5,107 products and 124 countries according to the Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) measures of complexity. We find that: (1) the most complex products are in machinery, chemicals, and metals, while the least complex products are raw materials and commodities, wood, textiles, and agricultural products; (2) the most complex economies in the world are Japan, Germany, and Sweden, and the least complex, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and Nigeria; (3) the major exporters of the more complex products are the high-income countries, while the major exporters of the less complex products are the low-income countries; and (4) export shares of the more complex products increase with income, while export shares of the less complex products decrease with income. Finally, we relate the measure of product complexity with the concept of Complex Products and Systems, and find a high degree of conformity between them.

Use of Salvia divinorum in a Nationally Representative Sample

Background: Salvia divinorum has known hallucinogenic effects and is legal in most parts of the United States. Given that this psychoactive substance has a potential of misuse and abuse, further data regarding the clinical and psychosocial factors associated with use are needed. Objectives: To examine the clinical and psychosocial characteristics associated with use of salvia. Methods: The study uses data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2008 (N = 55,623). Results: The results of this study suggest that salvia use is most common among young adults aged 18–25 years as well as individuals who had engaged in risk-taking behaviors (selling illicit drugs, stealing) or illicit drug use (especially other hallucinogens/ecstasy). Self-reported depression and anxiety were also associated with salvia use. Conclusions/Scientific Significance: The results provide evidence that salvia use is part of a broader constellation of psychosocial and behavioral problems among youth and young adults. The accessibility, legal status, and psychoactive effects of salvia can be a potentially complicating health risk to young people, especially among those with existing substance use problems.

Correlates of Handgun Carrying Among Adolescents in the United States

Weapon-related violence, especially the use of handguns, among adolescents is a serious public health concern. Using public-use data file from the adolescent sample (N = 17,842) in the 2008 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), this study examines the behavioral, parental involvement, and prevention correlates of handgun carrying. Overall, 3.1% of adolescents between the ages of 12 and 17 reported carrying a handgun in the past year. Results from a series of logistic regression models indicated that males, selling and using illicit drugs, were robustly associated with an increased probability of handgun carrying among adolescents. Furthermore, youth who carry handguns were significantly less likely to report a parent being involved in their lives and were significantly more likely to have encountered violence and drug prevention programming compared with youth who did not carry handguns. Implications of these results for prevention and policy are discussed.

Suicide Thoughts and Attempts and Psychiatric Treatment Utilization: Informing Prevention Strategies

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of nonreceipt of specialty psychiatric treatment among those who experienced suicidal thoughts or who attempted suicide. METHODS Data were from the 2008-2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health and included responses from adults 18 years and older who answered mental health and suicide-related questions (N=75,690). RESULTS Overall, 3.7% of the respondents experienced suicidal thoughts and .5% attempted suicide. Lack of psychiatric treatment was common among these individuals. Men, 18- to 25-year-olds, persons without insurance, and racial-ethnic groups other than white non-Hispanics were least likely to receive treatment. CONCLUSIONS Prevention and treatment efforts have targeted seekers of specialty treatment at high risk of suicide, but fewer interventions have focused on individuals with suicidal thoughts or attempters who do not seek treatment. More targeted prevention strategies are needed to mitigate suicide in the United States.

RETHINKING THE GROWTH DIAGNOSTICS APPROACH: QUESTIONS FROM THE PRACTITIONERS

The growth diagnostics methodology pioneered by Hausmann et al. (2005) is becoming a key component of the toolkit for donor agencies to formulate their operational strategies. This paper aims at clarifying the primary objectives of the approach, and at highlighting some limitations for operational use. The key to benefiting from the full potential that this approach offers lies in a proper understanding of what it does. This requires being forewarned about the indiscriminate application of the approach to any developing country, irrespective of its circumstances, for it can lead to misguided conclusions.

As You Sow so Shall You Reap: From Capabilities to Opportunities

We develop an Index of Opportunities for 130 countries based on their capabilities to undergo structural transformation. The Index of Opportunities has four dimensions, all of them characteristic of a country’s export basket: (1) sophistication; (2) diversification; (3) standardness; and (4) possibilities for exporting with comparative advantage over other products. The rationale underlying the index is that, in the long run, a country’s income is determined by the variety and sophistication of the products it makes and exports, which reflect its accumulated capabilities. We find that countries like China, India, Poland, Thailand, Mexico, and Brazil have accumulated a significant number of capabilities that will allow them to do well in the long run. These countries have diversified and increased the level of sophistication of their export structures. At the other extreme, countries like Papua New Guinea, Malawi, Benin, Mauritania, and Haiti score very poorly in the Index of Opportunities because their export structures are neither diversified nor sophisticated, and they have accumulated very few and unsophisticated capabilities. These countries are in urgent need of implementing policies that lead to the accumulation of capabilities.

The Product Space: What Does It Say About the Opportunities for Growth and Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa?

In this paper we look at the economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the context of structural transformation. We use Hidalgo et al.s (2007) concept of product space to show the evolution of the regions productive structure, and discuss the opportunities for growth and diversification. The majority of SSA countries are trapped in the export of unsophisticated, highly standard products that are poorly connected in the product space; this makes the process of structural transformation of the region particularly difficult. The products that are nearby to those they already export have the same characteristics. Therefore, shifting to these products will do little to improve SSAs growth prospects. To jump-start and sustain growth, governments must implement policies and provide public inputs that will encourage the private sector to invest in new and more sophisticated activities.

How Rich Countries Became Rich and Why Poor Countries Remain Poor: It’s the Economic Structure...Duh!

Becoming a rich country requires being able to produce and export commodities that embody certain characteristics. We classify 779 commodities (exported) according to two dimensions: (1) sophistication (measured by the income content of the products exported) and (2) connectivity to other products (measured by how easy it is to ‘jump’ into other potential exports). We identify 88 “good” products (highly sophisticated and well connected products), 93 “bad” products (unsophisticated and poorly connected products), and 598 “middle” products. Then, we categorize 154 countries into four groups according to the export share of each of these three types of products. There are 21 countries whose export baskets contain at least 15% of “good” products; 41 countries with a significant share of relatively sophisticated and well connected products; 50 countries with a significant share of relatively unsophisticated and not well connected products; and 42 countries whose export basket contains at least 15% of “bad” products.

Fiscal Policy and Growth in Developing Asia

In this paper we empirically explore the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in developing Asia. The region’s overall level of taxes and government spending are substantially lower than those prevailing in advanced economies. Nevertheless, there are conceptual grounds why fiscal policy, including the composition of taxes and government spending, can have a significant effect on growth, as our empirical analysis shows. In line with economic theory, property taxes have a more benign impact on growth than direct taxes, and spending more on education has a sizable positive impact on growth.

Structural Transformation in the Kyrgyz Republic: Engineering Future Paths of Capability Accumulation

This paper analyzes the degree of structural transformation in the Kyrgyz Republic’s economy by applying the new approach developed by Hausmann and Klinger (2007) and Hidalgo et al. (2007). We focus on the level of sophistication of the country’s exports, and discuss policy options to transform the country’s production structure for high and sustainable growth. We find that while the country is not well prepared for diversifying its export structure, it has a better opportunity for structural transformation than other countries in Central Asia. To seize this opportunity, our key policy recommendation is for the government to set up a new dialogue mechanism between the public and private sectors to find out the major constraints for the successful export of new products.