Árni Snorrason

Sensitivity of outflow peaks and flood stages to the selection of dam breach parameters and simulation models

Abstract Important breach parameters were identified and their ranges were estimated from a detailed study of historical earthdam failures due to overtopping. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) and the National Weather Service (NWS) dam breach models were chosen for evaluation and simulation. Both models use similar input data and breach descriptions, but the HEC uses the hydrologic routing method (modified Puls method), whereas the NWS uses the St. Venant equations for routing. Information on eight dams in Illinois was taken from the Corps of Engineers inspection reports, and surveyed cross-sections of the downstream channels were supplied by the Division of Water Resources of the Illinois Department of Transportation. Various combinations of breach parameters (failure time, TF; depth of overtopping, hf; and breach size, B) were used for breach simulations by both methods with the 1.00PMF, 0.50PMF and 0.25PMF (probable maximum flood) inflow hydrographs. In general, the flood stage profiles predicted by the NWS were smoother and more reasonable than those predicted by the HEC. For channels with relatively steep slopes, the methods compared fairly well, whereas for the channels with mild slope, the HEC model often predicted oscillating, erratic flood stages, mainly due to its inability to route flood waves satisfactorily in non-prismatic channels. The breach outflow peaks are affected significantly by B but less so by hf. The ratio of outflow peak to inflow peak and the effect of TF on outflow decrease as the drainage area above the dam and impounded storage increase. Flood stage profiles predicted with cross-sections taken from 7.5′ maps compared favorably with those predicted using surveyed cross-sections. For the range of breach parameters studied, the range of outflow peaks and flood stages downstream from the dam can be determined for regulatory and disaster prevention measures.

Effects of volcanic eruptions on the CO2 content of the atmosphere and the oceans: the 1996 eruption and flood within the Vatnajökull Glacier, Iceland

Abstract The October 1996 eruption within the Vatnajokull Glacier, Iceland, provides a unique opportunity to study the net effect of volcanic eruptions on atmospheric and oceanic CO 2 . Volatile elements dissolved in the meltwater that enclosed the eruption site were eventually discharged into the ocean in a dramatic flood 35 days after the beginning of the eruption, enabling measurement of 50 dissolved element fluxes. The minimum concentration of exsolved CO 2 in the 1×10 12 kg of erupted magma was 516 mg/kg, S was 98 mg/kg, Cl was 14 mg/kg, and F was 2 mg/kg. The pH of the meltwater at the eruption site ranged from about 3 to 8. Volatile and dissolved element release to the meltwater in less than 35 days amounted to more than one million tonnes, equal to 0.1% of the mass of erupted magma. The total dissolved solid concentration in the floodwater was close to 500 mg/kg, pH ranged from 6.88 to 7.95, and suspended solid concentration ranged from 1% to 10%. According to H, O, C and S isotopes, most of the water was meteoric whereas the C and S were of magmatic origin. Both C and S went through isotopic fractionation due to precipitation at the eruption site, creating “short cuts” in their global cycles. The dissolved fluxes of C, Ca, Na, Si, S and Mg were greatest ranging from 1.4×10 10 to 1.4×10 9 mol. The dissolved C flux equaled 0.6 million tonnes of CO 2 . The heavy metals Ni, Mn, Cu, Pb and Zn were relatively mobile during condensation and water–rock interactions at the eruption site. About half of the measured total carbon flood flux from the 1996 Vatnajokull eruption will be added to the long-term CO 2 budget of the oceans and the atmosphere. The other half will eventually precipitate with the Ca and Mg released. Thus, for eruptions on the ocean floor, one can expect a net long-term C release to the ocean of less than half that of the exsolved gas. This is a considerably higher net C release than suggested for the oceanic crust by Staudigel et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 53 (1989) 3091]. In fact, they suggested a net loss of C. Therefore, magma degassed at the ocean floor contributes more C to the oceans and the atmosphere than magma degassed deep in the oceanic crust. The results of this study show that subglacial eruptions affecting the surface layer of the ocean where either Mn, Fe, Si or Cu are rate-determining for the growth of oceanic biomass have a potential for a transient net CO 2 removal from the ocean and the atmosphere. For eruptions at high latitudes, timing is crucial for the effect of oceanic biota. Eruptions occurring in the wintertime when light is rate-determining for the growth of biota have much less potential for bringing about a transient net negative CO 2 flux from the ocean atmosphere reservoir.

The feedback between climate and weathering

Abstract Long-term climate moderation is commonly attributed to chemical weathering; the greater the temperature and precipitation the faster the weathering rate. To test this widely-held hypothesis, we performed a field study and determined the weathering rates of eight nearly pristine north-east Iceland river catchments with varying glacial cover over 44 y. Statistically significant linear positive correlations were found between mean annual temperature and chemical weathering in all eight catchments and between mean annual temperature and mechanical weathering and runoff in seven of the eight catchments. The runoff, mechanical weathering flux, and chemical weathering fluxes in these catchments are found to increase from 6 to 16%, 8 to 30%, and 4 to 14%, respectively, depending on the catchment for each degree of temperature increase. Positive correlations were found between time and mechanical and chemical weathering for all catchments. In summary, these results demonstrate a significant feedback between climate and Earth surface weathering, and suggest that this weathering rate is currently increasing with time due to global warming.

Modeling discharge rating curves with Bayesian B-splines

River discharges are traditionally modeled by employing a standard power-law methodology. Recently, the Bayesian approached has successfully been applied to improve the estimates of the standard power-law. In this article, an extension to the standard power-law based on Bayesian B-splines is developed and tested on data sets from 61 different rivers. The extended model is evaluated against the standard power-law using two measures, the Deviance Information Criterion and Bayes factor. The extended model captures deviations in the data from the standard power-law but reduces to the standard power-law when that model is adequate. The standard power-law is inadequate for 26% of the rivers while the extended model provides an adequate fit in all of those cases and for the remaining 74% of the rivers the extended model and the power-law model both give adequate fit with almost identical estimates.

Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland

Abstract River flow conditions in many watersheds of Iceland are particularly disturbed during winter by the formation, drifting and accumulation of river ice, whose impact on water encroachment and extent of inundations is not reflected in the discharge records. It is therefore necessary to use river discharge with great caution when assessing the magnitude of past inundations in Iceland, and to give attention to other flood magnitude parameters. A GIS-based methodology is presented that focuses on inundation extent as an alternative parameter for the assessment and ranking of the magnitude of past flooding events in the Ölfusá-Hvítá basin, known as one of the most dangerous flood-prone river complexes in Iceland. Relying ultimately on a macro-scale grid, the method enabled the reconstruction of the extent of inundations, the delineation of the flood plain, and, finally, some estimation of the likelihood of flooding of exposed areas that include marine submergences and river floods for both open water and ice conditions. Citation Pagneux, E., Gísladóttir, G. & Snorrason, Á. (2010) Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 704–716.

Recent Climate Change, Projected Impacts, and Adaptation Capacity in Iceland

The subpolar maritime climate of Iceland is characterized by relatively large interdecadal variations. Temperature measurements show that the nineteenth century was colder and more variable than the twentieth century. Iceland experienced rapid warming in the 1920s and relatively mild conditions prevailed until the 1960s, when colder conditions set in. In recent decades Iceland has again experienced significant warming and early this century the temperatures exceeded those attained during the mid-twentieth century warm period. The recent warming has been accompanied by significant changes in both physical and biological systems. These include glacier retreat, runoff changes and isostatic rebound, increased plant productivity and changes in tree limits. In coastal waters, the range of fish species is changing, reflecting warmer conditions. Socioeconomic impacts that can be related to the warming are already discernable, in the agricultural, transportation, and fishing sectors.

Role of river-suspended material in the global carbon cycle: Comment and Reply REPLY

The main point made by Schwartzman in his Comment is that because the interaction of suspended basalt material and seawater in deltas leads to the consumption of Mg concurrent with the release of Ca, the overall effect of suspended material transport from the continents and volcanic islands to the