Tómas Jóhannesson

Degree-day glacier mass-balance modelling with applications to glaciers in Iceland, Norway and Greenland

A degree-day glacier mass-balance model is applied to three glaciers in Iceland, Norway and Greenland for which detailed mass-balance measurements are available over a period of several years. Model results are in good agreement with measured variations in the mass balance with elevation over the time periods considered for each glacier. In addition, the model explains 60-80% of the year-to-year variance in the elevation-averaged summer season mass-balance measurements on the glaciers, using a single parameter set for each glacier. The increase in ablation on the glaciers due to a warming of 2° C is predicted to range from about 1 m w.e. year −1 at the highest elevations to about 2.5 m w.e. year −1 at the lowest elevations. Predicted changes in the winter balance (measured between fixed date) are relatively small, except at the lowest elevations on the Icelandic and Norwegian glaciers where the winter balance is significantly reduced. Equilibrium-line altitudes are raised by 200-300 m on the Icelandic and Norwegian glaciers. Except at the highest elevations, the winter balance of the Icelandic and Norwegian glaciers is predicted to decrease even if the warming is accompanied by a 10% increase in the precipitation. No firm evidence of a climate-related variation in the degree-day factors or in the temperature lapse rate on the same glacier could be found. The model, furthermore, reproduces large variations in the mass balance with elevation and from year to year on each glacier using the same parameter set. We assume, therefore, that these parameters will not change significantly for the climate scenarios considered here.

Ice-volume changes, bias-estimation of mass-balance measurements and changes in subglacial lakes derived by LiDAR-mapping of the surface of Icelandic glaciers

Abstract Icelandic glaciers cover ∼11 000 km2 in area and store ∼3600 km3 of ice. Starting in 2008 during the International Polar Year, accurate digital elevation models (DEMs) of the glaciers are being produced with airborne lidar. More than 90% of the glaciers have been surveyed in this effort, including Vatnajökull, Hofsjökull, Myrdalsjökull, Drangajökull, Eyjafjallajökull and several smaller glaciers. The publicly available DEMs are useful for glaciological and geological research, including studies of ice-volume changes, estimation of bias in mass-balance measurements, studies of jökulhlaups and subglacial lakes formed by subglacial geothermal areas, and for mapping of crevasses. The lidar mapping includes a 500-1000 m wide ice-free buffer zone around the ice margins which contains many glacio-geomorphological features, and therefore the new DEMs have proved useful in geological investigations of proglacial areas. Comparison of the lidar DEMs with older maps confirms the rapid ongoing volume changes of the Icelandic ice caps which have been shown by mass-balance measurements since 1995/96. In some cases, ice-volume changes derived by comparing the lidar measurements with older DEMs are in good agreement with accumulated ice-volume changes derived from traditional mass-balance measurements, but in other cases such a comparison indicates substantial biases in the traditional mass-balance records.

The response of two icelandic glaciers to climatic warming computed with a degree-day glacier mass-balance model coupled to a dynamic glacier model

A degree-day glacier mass-balance model is coupled to a dynamic glacier model for temperate glaciers. The model is calibrated for two outlet glaciers from the Hofsjokull ice cap in central Iceland. It is forced with a climate scenario that has recently been defined for the Nordic countries for the purpose of outlining the hydrological consequences of future greenhouse warming. The scenario for Iceland specifies a warming rate of 0.25°C per decade in mid-summer and 0.35°C per decade in mid-winter with a sinusoidal variation through the year. The volume of the glaciers is predicted to decrease by approximately 40% over the next century, and the glaciers essentially disappear during the next 200 years. Runoff from the area that is presently covered by the glaciers is predicted to increase by approximately 0.5 m a -1 30 years from now due to the reduction in the volume of the glaciers. The runoff increase reaches a flat maximum of 0.5-2.0 m a -1 100-150 years from now and levels off after that. The predicted runoff increase leads to a significant increase in the discharge of rivers fed by meltwater from the outlet glaciers of the ice cap and may have important consequences for the operation and planning of hydroelectric power plants in Iceland.

Response of Hofsjökull and southern Vatnajökull, Iceland, to climate change

Disclosed is a dimmable fluorescent lamp operating apparatus which comprises a fluorescent lamp, electrical characteristic detecting element for detecting an electrical characteristic of the fluorescent lamp, an inverter circuit for driving the fluorescent lamp, and a feedback controlling circuit for controlling the drive frequency of the inverter circuit such that the electrical characteristic of the fluorescent lamp becomes a predetermined value, wherein the feedback controlling circuit includes temperature detecting element for detecting the temperature of the fluorescent lamp and wherein the frequency characteristic bandwidth of the feedback controlling circuit is varied based on the detected fluorescent lamp temperature.

An oligarchic microbial assemblage in the anoxic bottom waters of a volcanic subglacial lake

In 2006, we sampled the anoxic bottom waters of a volcanic lake beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap (Iceland). The sample contained 5 × 105 cells per ml, and whole-cell fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and PCR with domain-specific probes showed these to be essentially all bacteria, with no detectable archaea. Pyrosequencing of the V6 hypervariable region of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene, Sanger sequencing of a clone library and FISH-based enumeration of four major phylotypes revealed that the assemblage was dominated by a few groups of putative chemotrophic bacteria whose closest cultivated relatives use sulfide, sulfur or hydrogen as electron donors, and oxygen, sulfate or CO2 as electron acceptors. Hundreds of other phylotypes are present at lower abundance in our V6 tag libraries and a rarefaction analysis indicates that sampling did not reach saturation, but FISH data limit the remaining biome to <10–20% of all cells. The composition of this oligarchy can be understood in the context of the chemical disequilibrium created by the mixing of sulfidic lake water and oxygenated glacial meltwater.

Propagation of a subglacial flood wave during the initiation of a jôkulhlaup

Abstract Observations from the jökulhlaup from Grímsvötn in Vatnajökull, south-eastern Iceland, in 1996 indicate that the jökulhlaup was initiated by the movement of a localised pressure wave that travelled 50 km in 10 h from Grimsvötn to the terminus, forming a subglacial pathway along the glacier bed. Shortly after this wave reached the terminus, the jökulhlaup was flowing at a high discharge through a tunnel that would have needed much longer time to form by ice melting as assumed in existing theories of jökulhlaups. Frozen sediments formed in crevasses and frazil ice on the surface of the flood waters indicate the flow of supercooled water in the terminus region, demonstrating that the rate of heat transfer from subglacial flood water to the overlying ice is greatly underestimated in current theories.

Microbial communities in the subglacial waters of the Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland

Subglacial lakes beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap in Iceland host endemic communities of microorganisms adapted to cold, dark and nutrient-poor waters, but the mechanisms by which these microbes disseminate under the ice and colonize these lakes are unknown. We present new data on this subglacial microbiome generated from samples of two subglacial lakes, a subglacial flood and a lake that was formerly subglacial but now partly exposed to the atmosphere. These data include parallel 16S rRNA gene amplicon libraries constructed using novel primers that span the v3–v5 and v4–v6 hypervariable regions. Archaea were not detected in either subglacial lake, and the communities are dominated by only five bacterial taxa. Our paired libraries are highly concordant for the most abundant taxa, but estimates of diversity (abundance-based coverage estimator) in the v4–v6 libraries are 3–8 times higher than in corresponding v3–v5 libraries. The dominant taxa are closely related to cultivated anaerobes and microaerobes, and may occupy unique metabolic niches in a chemoautolithotrophic ecosystem. The populations of the major taxa in the subglacial lakes are indistinguishable (>99% sequence identity), despite separation by 6 km and an ice divide; one taxon is ubiquitous in our Vatnajökull samples. We propose that the glacial bed is connected through an aquifer in the underlying permeable basalt, and these subglacial lakes are colonized from a deeper, subterranean microbiome.

A laboratory study of the retarding effects of braking mounds on snow avalanches

A series of laboratory experiments in a 6 m long chute using glass particles of mean diameter 100 μ m were performed to investigate the interaction of a supercritical, granular flow with obstacles. It was found that the collision of the flow with a row of mounds led to the formation of a jet, whereby a large fraction of the flow was launched from the top of the mounds and subsequently landed back on the chute. The retarding effect of the mounds was investigated quantitatively by direct measurements of the velocity of the flow, its runout length and the geometry of the jet. The effects of several aspects of the layout of the mounds on their retarding effects were examined. It was observed that a row of steep mounds with an elongated shape in the transverse direction to the flow and with a height several times the flow depth led to dissipation of a large proportion of the kinetic energy of the flow.

Deflecting dams and the formation of oblique shocks in snow avalanches at Flateyri, Iceland

Snow avalanches are a threat in many populated mountainous regions, and deflecting dams are often built to divert them away from people, and infrastructure, into less harmful areas. When an avalanche is deflected by a dam or wedge, it often generates rapid changes in the flow thickness and velocity, which can be modeled as an oblique shock wave. This paper reviews classical oblique shock theory, which was originally developed for shallow water flows, and uses it to make predictions of the maximum runup height on a deflecting dam, the downstream flow velocity, and the width of the channelized stream. The theory is used to investigate field observations of snow avalanches at Flateyri in Iceland, where a dam has deflected two avalanches away from the town and produced a channelized stream that flowed parallel to the dam. The results indicate that there is no one single set of upstream flow conditions that parameterizes the flow behavior, but the solution evolves as the avalanche propagates along the dam in response to the deceleration imposed by the slope. Fully time-dependent shock capturing numerical simulations of the Skollahvilft avalanche, which hit the dam on 21 February 1999, are used to show how the channelized stream widens as the avalanche slows down and thickens toward the end of the runout zone. The oblique shock relations nevertheless provide useful local order of magnitude estimates for the flow conditions immediately upstream of the shock.

Relation between glacier-termini variations and summer temperature in Iceland since 1930

Abstract Measurements of the retreat and advance of glacier termini are simple and straightforward and in many cases give clear indications about climate history. A careful analysis of glacier type and the processes that override the climate forcing of the mass balance are important for the correct interpretation of terminus variations in terms of climate fluctuations. Regular measurements of glacier variations in Iceland were started in 1930. The Iceland Glaciological Society is now responsible for the monitoring programme. The observed front variations of non-surge-type outlet glaciers of various sizes have closely mimicked major variations of the climate in Iceland during the 20th century. Most of the glaciers retreated rapidly during the warm decades from 1930 to 1960, slowing down as the climate cooled during the following decade, and started to advance after 1970. The rate of advance peaked in the 1980s, after which it slowed down as a consequence of rapid warming of the climate that has taken place since the mid-1980s. Mass-balance measurements show alternating positive and negative mass balance of glaciers during the period 1987–95, but the mass balance has been predominantly negative since 1996. Most glaciers in Iceland began to retreat after 1990, and by 2000 all monitored non-surge-type glaciers in Iceland were retreating. A comparison of the front variations of non-surge-type glaciers and mean summer temperature shows that the major shifts in the climate were followed by a change in the rate of advance or retreat at the termini with a delay of only a few years. This delay does not seem to correlate with the size, the mass turnover or other characteristics of the glacier.