Arthur C. Petersen

Post-Normal Science in Practice at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on a transition from a technocratic model of science advising to the paradigm of ‘‘post-normal science’’ (PNS). In response to a scandal around uncertainty management in 1999, a Guidance for ‘‘Uncertainty Assessment and Communication’’ was developed with advice from the initiators of the PNS concept and was introduced in 2003. This was followed in 2007 by a ‘‘Stakeholder Participation’’ Guidance. In this article, the authors provide a combined insider/outsider perspective on the transition process. The authors assess the extent to which the PNS paradigm has delivered new approaches in the agency’s practice and analyze two projects—on long-term options for Dutch sustainable development policy and for urban development policy—the latter in somewhat more detail. The authors identify several paradoxes PBL encounters when putting the PNS concept into practice. It is concluded that an openness to other styles of work than the technocratic model has become visible, but that the introduction of the PNS paradigm is still in its early stage.

Dealing with uncertainties in environmental burden of disease assessment.

Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) combine the number of people affected by disease or mortality in a population and the duration and severity of their condition into one number. The environmental burden of disease is the number of DALYs that can be attributed to environmental factors. Environmental burden of disease estimates enable policy makers to evaluate, compare and prioritize dissimilar environmental health problems or interventions. These estimates often have various uncertainties and assumptions which are not always made explicit. Besides statistical uncertainty in input data and parameters – which is commonly addressed – a variety of other types of uncertainties may substantially influence the results of the assessment. We have reviewed how different types of uncertainties affect environmental burden of disease assessments, and we give suggestions as to how researchers could address these uncertainties. We propose the use of an uncertainty typology to identify and characterize uncertainties. Finally, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making.

Opening up the societal debate on climate engineering: how newspaper frames are changing

The use of climate engineering or geoengineering technologies to combat climate change has been a controversial topic, even in the scientific debate. In recent studies, it has been claimed that the debate on climate engineering technologies may be closing down prematurely, with detrimental effects on the possibility of social and ethical reflection in appraising these controversial technologies. We examined the extent to which the debate on climate engineering is opening up or closing down, analyzing the diversity of English-speaking newspaper frames in the period 2006–2011. The results provide strong support for an opening of the debate, especially since 2009, given the decline of overly deterministic frames, the emergence of frames related to sociopolitical issues and an overall more balanced distribution of the various frames. This provides evidence that different perspectives are voiced in the public debate, which may enable societies to critically reflect on these emerging technologies.

Formalizing knowledge on international environmental regimes: A first step towards integrating political science in integrated assessments of global environmental change

International environmental regimes are considered key factors in dealing with global environmental change problems. It is important to understand if and how regimes are effective in tackling these problems, which requires knowledge on their potential impact on these problems as well as on their political feasibility. Integrated assessments of global environmental change, which are mainly bio-physical and technology-economic oriented, barely address knowledge on environmental regimes, due to problems in drawing general and policy relevant lessons on regime effectiveness and inherent difficulties in modelling human and social dimensions. This paper presents an innovative approach to formalize knowledge on the effectiveness of environmental regimes, so that scientists from both the political science and integrated assessment domain can understand it, discuss it and contribute to it. We constructed a conceptual framework for the systematic analysis of conditions that influence regime effectiveness and implemented it in a computer model using fuzzy logic methodology. We evaluated the fuzzy model in an ex post case study on four existing international environmental regimes. The model can be used as an aid in analysing the effectiveness of existing or future regimes, highlighting which determinants contribute to success or failure, and it enables systematic and meaningful comparisons between regimes and policy measures. We discovered that formalizing knowledge on environmental regimes in a framework and model enhanced its transparency and deductive power as it forced us to be explicit about our choices and assumptions. Developing and using the framework and model also revealed the lacunae in knowledge in environmental regime theory which may inform regime researchers to further structure and increase their knowledge. By making knowledge on environmental regimes explicit and understandable we have taken an important step towards a better integration of political science in integrated assessments. We believe, however, that this integration is still in its early days and requires further attention in the future.

Climate simulation, uncertainty, and policy advice: The case of the IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a body of the United Nations established in 1988 which has the responsibility to provide policy-relevant assessments of knowledge pertaining to climate change. While the IPCC does not advise on which climate policies should be agreed upon by the world’s nations, it does provide succinct Summaries for Policymakers (SPMs) on the state of knowledge on the causes and effects of human-induced climate change, on mitigation of the causes and on adaptation to the effects. If we are interested in how climate-simulation uncertainty is dealt with in policy advice, the IPCC is a prime location for study.

Software, Data and Modelling News: The dynamic simulation and visualization software MyM

The integrated modelling environment MyM integrates design of mathematical models, execution, data analysis and visualization with the explicit purpose to facilitate the interactive communication about model structure and data between modellers, policy analysts and decision makers. The graphical user interface of MyM makes it possible to easily interact with the input data and analyze the output data. MyM offers a software environment in which development, simulation and visualization of mathematical models are truly integrated. MyM is already applied in several environmental sectors and is suitable for a broad range of problem areas.

Transatlantic Patterns of Risk Regulation: Implications for International Trade and Cooperation

This report presents a study commissioned by the European Parliament to compare regulatory standards in the EU and the US in four key sectors (food safety, automobiles, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals), chosen for their relevance both to consumer protection and transatlantic trade, and focusing on whether different approaches to risk regulation may lead to different levels of protection. How risks are regulated in the US and the EU can affect domestic outcomes (such as the benefits and costs of protecting consumers, health and environment), and can also foster or limit the opportunities for international trade.

Établir la qualité des preuves pour les situations de décision complexes et controversées

Les decisions politiques sur les risques environnementaux complexes font frequemment intervenir des elements scientifiques contestes. Il n’y a generalement pas de « faits » qui conduisent a une politique correcte unique. Les elements de preuve qui sont integres dans les avis scientifiques destines a une decision politique necessitent une evaluation de leur qualite. En 2003, l’Agence neerlandaise d’evaluation environnementale a adopte une methode standardisee, designee sous le nom de « guide », dans le cadre de laquelle les principaux aspects de la production et de l’utilisation des connaissances sont presentes grâce a une liste de controle visant a l’evaluation et a la communication des incertitudes. Dans cet article, nous presentons des resultats de l’application de ce guide a la controverse sur les risques des particules en suspension. La deliberation active sur l’incertitude dans un contexte d’expertise entraine un processus d’apprentissage commun entre les experts et les decideurs politiques, ce qui conduit a une meilleure prise de conscience du phenomene d’incertitude et de ses implications politiques.