Penny Kloprogge

Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model Based Environmental Assessment. The NUSAP System.

This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.

The Inclusion of Stakeholder Perspectives in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

Managing the risks of anthropogenic climate change is a societal process which has to deal with a long term complex issue under conditions of high and partly irreducible uncertainties and multiple value orientations of the many national and international stakeholders. Over the past decades Integrated Assessment (IA) has emerged as an approach to link knowledge and action in a way that is suitable to accommodate the uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of global environmental risks.