Arthur Frankel

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council and published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Nonlinear and Linear Site Response and Basin Effects in Seattle for the M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Earthquake

We used recordings of the M 6.8 Nisqually earthquake and its M L 3.4 aftershock to study site response and basin effects for 35 locations in Seattle, Washington. We determined site amplification from Fourier spectral ratios of the recorded horizontal ground motions, referenced to a soft-rock site. Soft-soil sites (generally National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program [NEHRP] class E) on artificial fill and young alluvium have the largest 1-Hz amplifications (factors of 3–7) for both the mainshock and aftershock. These amplifications are correlated with areas of higher damage from the mainshock to major buildings and liquefaction. There are several indications of nonlinear response at the soft-soil sites for the mainshock ground motions, despite relatively modest peak accelerations in the S waves of 15%–22% g . First, the mainshock spectral ratios do not show amplification at 2–8 Hz as do the aftershock spectral ratios. Spectral peaks at frequencies below 2 Hz generally occur at lower frequencies for the mainshock spectral ratios than for the aftershock ratios. At one soft-soil site, there is a clear shift of the resonant frequency to a lower frequency for the mainshock compared with the aftershock. The frequency of this resonance increases in the coda of the mainshock record, indicating that the site response during the weaker motions of the coda is more linear than that of the initial S wave. Three of the soft-soil sites display cusped, one-sided mainshock accelerograms after the S wave. These soft-soil sites also show amplification at 10–20 Hz in the S wave, relative to the rock site, that is not observed for the aftershock. The cusped waveforms and 10–20-Hz amplification are symptomatic of nonlinear response at the soft-soil sites. These sites had nearby liquefaction. The largest amplifications for 0.5 Hz occur at soft-soil sites on the southern portion of the Seattle Basin. Stiff-soil sites (NEHRP classes D and C) on Pleistocence-age glacial deposits display similar spectral amplification for the mainshock and aftershock, indicating approximately linear response. The stiff-soil sites generally have moderate amplification (factors of 1.1–2.4) at 0.5 and 1 Hz. Amplifications at 1 and 5 Hz for all sites generally increase with decreasing shear-wave velocity measured in the top 30 m ( V s 30). However, larger amplifications at 0.5 and 1 Hz for sites with similar V s 30 values are observed for sites in the Seattle Basin, illustrating the amplification from the deeper (>30 m) sediments and the contribution from basin surface waves. Record sections for the mainshock and aftershock show that basin surface waves produce the peak velocities for many of the sites in the Seattle Basin and often dominate the amplitude at 1 Hz and lower frequencies.

Development of Maximum Considered Earthquake Ground Motion Maps

The 1997 NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings use a design procedure that is based on spectral response acceleration rather than the traditional peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, or zone factors. The spectral response accelerations are obtained from maps prepared following the recommendations of the Building Seismic Safety Councils (BSSC) Seismic Design Procedures Group (SDPG). The SDPG-recommended maps, the Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) Ground Motion Maps, are based on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard maps with additional modifications incorporating deterministic ground motions in selected areas and the application of engineering judgement. The MCE ground motion maps included with the 1997 NEHRP Provisions also serve as the basis for the ground motion maps used in the seismic design portions of the 2000 International Building Code and the 2000 International Residential Code. Additionally the design maps prepared for the 1997 NEHRP Provisions, combined with selected USGS probabilistic maps, are used with the 1997 NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings.

A Constant Stress-Drop Model for Producing Broadband Synthetic Seismograms: Comparison with the Next Generation Attenuation Relations

Broadband (0.1-20 Hz) synthetic seismograms for finite-fault sources were produced for a model where stress drop is constant with seismic moment to see if they can match the magnitude dependence and distance decay of response spec- tral amplitudes found in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations recently developed from strong-motion data of crustal earthquakes in tectonically active re- gions. The broadband synthetics were constructed for earthquakes of M 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 by combining deterministic synthetics for plane-layered models at low fre- quencies with stochastic synthetics at high frequencies. The stochastic portion used a source model where the Brune stress drop of 100 bars is constant with seismic mo- ment. The deterministic synthetics were calculated using an average slip velocity, and hence, dynamic stress drop, on the fault that is uniform with magnitude. One novel aspect of this procedure is that the transition frequency between the deterministic and stochastic portions varied with magnitude, so that the transition frequency is inversely related to the rise time of slip on the fault. The spectral accelerations at 0.2, 1.0, and 3.0 sec periods from the synthetics generally agreed with those from the set of NGA relations for M 5.5-7.5 for distances of 2-100 km. At distances of 100-200 km some of the NGA relations for 0.2 sec spectral acceleration were substantially larger than the values of the synthetics for M 7.5 and M 6.5 earthquakes because these relations do not have a term accounting for Q. At 3 and 5 sec periods, the synthetics for M 7.5 earth- quakes generally had larger spectral accelerations than the NGA relations, although there was large scatter in the results from the synthetics. The synthetics showed a sag in response spectra at close-in distances for M 5.5 between 0.3 and 0.7 sec that is not predicted from the NGA relations.

Rupture process of the M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake: Subevents, directivity, and scaling of high-frequency ground motions

Displacement waveforms and high-frequency acceleration envelopes from stations at distances of 3–300 km were inverted to determine the source process of the M 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. Fitting the initial portion of the displacement waveforms indicates that the earthquake started with an oblique thrust subevent (subevent #1) with an east–west-striking, north-dipping nodal plane consistent with the observed surface rupture on the Susitna Glacier fault. Inversion of the remainder of the waveforms (0.02–0.5 Hz) for moment release along the Denali and Totschunda faults shows that rupture proceeded eastward on the Denali fault, with two strike-slip subevents (numbers 2 and 3) centered about 90 and 210 km east of the hypocenter. Subevent 2 was located across from the station at ps10 (Trans-Alaska Pipeline Pump Station #10) and was very localized in space and time. Subevent 3 extended from 160 to 230 km east of the hypocenter and had the largest moment of the subevents. Based on the timing between subevent 2 and the east end of subevent 3, an average rupture velocity of 3.5 km/sec, close to the shear wave velocity at the average rupture depth, was found. However, the portion of the rupture 130–220 km east of the epicenter appears to have an effective rupture velocity of about 5.0 km/sec, which is supershear. These two subevents correspond approximately to areas of large surface offsets observed after the earthquake. Using waveforms of the M 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake as empirical Green’s functions, the high-frequency (1–10 Hz) envelopes of the M 7.9 earthquake were inverted to determine the location of high-frequency energy release along the faults. The initial thrust subevent produced the largest high-frequency energy release per unit fault length. The high-frequency envelopes and acceleration spectra (>0.5 Hz) of the M 7.9 earthquake can be simulated by chaining together rupture zones of the M 6.7 earthquake over distances from 30 to 180 km east of the hypocenter. However, the inversion indicates that there was relatively little high-frequency energy generated along the 60-km portion of the Totschunda fault on the east end of the rupture.

A Review of Numerical Experiments on Seismic Wave Scattering

This paper reviews applications of the finite-difference and finite-element methods to the study of seismic wave scattering in both simple and complex velocity models. These numerical simulations have improved our understanding of seismic scattering in portions of the earth where there is significant lateral heterogeneity, such as the crust. The methods propagate complete seismic wavefields through highly complex media and include multiply scattered waves and converted phases (e.g.,P toSV, SV toP, body wave to surface wave). The numerical methods have been especially useful in cases of moderate and strong scattering in complex media where multiple scattering becomes important. Progress has been made with numerical methods in understanding how near-surface, low-velocity basin structures scatter surface waves and vertically-incident body waves. The numerical methods have proven useful in evaluating scattering of surface waves and body waves from topography of both the free surface and interfaces buried at depth. Numerical studies have demonstrated the importance of conversions from body waves to surface waves (andvice versa) when lateral heterogeneities and topographic relief are present in the uppermost crust. Recently, several investigations have applied numerical methods to study seismic wave propagation in velocity models which vary randomly in space. This stochastic approach seeks to understand the effects of small-scale complexity in the earth which cannot be resolved deterministically. These experiments have quantified the relationships between the statistical properties of the random heterogeneity and the measurable properties of high-frequency (≥1 Hz) seismograms. These simulations have been applied to the study of many features observed in actual high-frequency seismic waves, including: the amplitude and time decay of seismic coda, the apparent attenuation from scattering, the dispersion of waveforms, and the travel time and waveform variations across arrays of receivers.

The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

Three-Dimensional Simulations of Ground Motions in the Seattle Region for Earthquakes in the Seattle Fault Zone

We used the 3D finite-difference method to model observed seismograms of two earthquakes ( M L 4.9 and 3.5) in the Seattle region and to simulate ground motions for hypothetical M 6.5 and M 5.0 earthquakes on the Seattle fault, for periods greater than 2 sec. A 3D velocity model of the Seattle Basin was constructed from studies that analyzed seismic-reflection surveys, borehole logs, and gravity and aeromagnetic data. The observations and the simulations highlight the importance of the Seattle Basin on long-period ground motions. For earthquakes occurring just south of the basin, the edge of the basin and the variation of the thickness of the Quaternary deposits in the basin produce much larger surface waves than expected from flat-layered models. The data consist of seismograms recorded by instruments deployed in Seattle by the USGS and the University of Washington (UW). The 3D simulation reproduces the peak amplitude and duration of most of the seismograms of the June 1997 Bremerton event ( M L 4.9) recorded in Seattle. We found the focal mechanism for this event that best fits the observed seismograms in Seattle by combining Green9s functions determined from the 3D simulations for the six fundamental moment couples. The February 1997 event ( M L 3.5) to the south of the Seattle Basin exhibits a large surface-wave arrival at UW whose amplitude is matched by the synthetics in our 3D velocity model, for a source depth of 9 km. The M 6.5 simulations incorporated a fractal slip distribution on the fault plane. These simulations produced the largest ground motions in an area that includes downtown Seattle. This is mainly caused by rupture directed up dip toward downtown, radiation pattern of the source, and the turning of S waves by the velocity gradient in the Seattle basin. Another area of high ground motion is located about 13 km north of the fault and is caused by an increase in the amplitude of higher-mode Rayleigh waves caused by the thinning of the Quaternary deposits.

Geographic Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard in the United States

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States ( ) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

Observations of basin ground motions from a dense seismic array in San Jose, California

We installed a dense array of 41 digital seismographs in San Jose, California, to evaluate in detail the effects of a deep sedimentary basin and shallow sedimentary deposits on earthquake ground motions. This urban array is located near the eastern edge of the Santa Clara Valley and spans the Evergreen sedimentary basin identified by gravity data. Average station spacing is 1 km, with three stations initially spaced 110 m apart. Despite the high-noise urban environment, the stations of the array successfully triggered on and recorded small local earthquakes ( M 2.5–2.8 at 10–25 km distance) and larger regional events such as the M 5.0 Bolinas earthquake (90 km distance), M 4.6–5.6 earthquakes near Mammoth Lakes (270 km distance), M 4.9–5.6 events in western Nevada (420 km distance) and the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake (590 km distance). Maps of spectral ratios across the array show that the highest amplitudes in all frequency bands studied (0.125–8 Hz) are generally observed at stations farther from the eastern edge of the Santa Clara Valley. Larger spectral amplitudes are often observed above the western edge of the Evergreen Basin. Snapshots of the recorded wavefield crossing the array for regional events to the east reveal that large, low-frequency (0.125–0.5 Hz) arrivals after the S -wave travel from south to north across the array. A moving-window, cross-correlation analysis finds that these later arrivals are surface waves traveling from the south. The timing and propagation direction of these arrivals indicates that they were likely produced by scattering of incident S waves at the border of the Santa Clara Valley to the south of the array. It is remarkable that the largest low-frequency phases at many of the valley sites for regional events to the east are basin surface waves coming from a direction about 70 degrees different from that of the epicenters. Basin surface waves emanating from the eastern edge of the valley are also identified by the cross-correlation analysis.