Stephen C. Harmsen

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council and published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Conditional Spectrum Computation Incorporating Multiple Causal Earthquakes and Ground-Motion Prediction Models

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are per- formed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some in- sights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part I: Validation Using the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake

We compute ground motions for the Beroza (1991) and Wald et al. (1991) source models of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake using four different wave-propagation codes and recently developed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. In preparation for modeling the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we use this well-recorded earthquake to characterize how well our ground-motion simulations reproduce the observed shaking intensities and amplitude and durations of recorded motions throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. All of the simulations generate ground motions consistent with the large-scale spatial variations in shaking associated with rupture directivity and the geologic structure. We attribute the small variations among the synthetics to the minimum shear-wave speed permitted in the simulations and how they accommodate topography. Our long-period simulations, on average, under predict shaking intensities by about one-half modified Mercalli inten- sity (MMI) units (25%-35% in peak velocity), while our broadband simulations, on average, under predict the shaking intensities by one-fourth MMI units (16% in peak velocity). Discrepancies with observations arise due to errors in the source models and geologic structure. The consistency in the synthetic waveforms across the wave- propagation codes for a given source model suggests the uncertainty in the source parameters tends to exceed the uncertainty in the seismic velocity structure. In agree- ment with earlier studies, we find that a source model with slip more evenly distributed northwest and southeast of the hypocenter would be preferable to both the Beroza and Wald source models. Although the new 3D seismic velocity model improves upon previous velocity models, we identify two areas needing improvement. Nevertheless, we find that the seismic velocity model and the wave-propagation codes are suitable for modeling the 1906 earthquake and scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area. Online Material: Modified Mercalli intensities and velocity waveforms, and a movie of simulated wave propagation.

Geographic Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard in the United States

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States ( ) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

Modeling and validation of a 3D velocity structure for the Santa Clara Valley, California, for seismic-wave simulations

A 3D seismic velocity and attenuation model is developed for Santa Clara Valley, California, and its surrounding uplands to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes. The model is developed using a variety of geologic and geophysical data. Our starting point is a 3D geologic model developed primarily from geologic mapping and gravity and magnetic surveys. An initial velocity model is constructed by using seismic velocities from boreholes, reflection/refraction lines, and spatial autocorrelation microtremor surveys. This model is further refined and the seismic attenuation is estimated through waveform modeling of weak motions from small local events and strong-ground motion from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Waveforms are calculated to an upper frequency of 1 Hz using a parallelized finite-difference code that utilizes two regions with a factor of 3 difference in grid spacing to reduce memory requirements. Cenozoic basins trap and strongly amplify ground motions. This effect is particularly strong in the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the Santa Clara Valley, where the steeply dipping Silver Creek fault forms the southwestern boundary of the basin. In comparison, the Cupertino Basin on the southwestern side of the valley has a more moderate response, which is attributed to a greater age and velocity of the Cenozoic fill. Surface waves play a major role in the ground motion of sedimentary basins, and they are seen to strongly develop along the western margins of the Santa Clara Valley for our simulation of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

Site Response, Shallow Shear-Wave Velocity, and Wave Propagation at the San Jose, California, Dense Seismic Array

Ground-motion records from a 52-element dense seismic array near San Jose, California, are analyzed to obtain site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and plane-wave propagation characteristics. The array, located on the eastern side of the Santa Clara Valley south of the San Francisco Bay, is sited over the Evergreen basin, a 7-km-deep depression with Miocene and younger deposits. Site response values below 4 Hz are up to a factor of 2 greater when larger, regional records are included in the analysis, due to strong surface-wave development within the Santa Clara Valley. The pattern of site amplification is the same, however, with local or regional events. Site amplification increases away from the eastern edge of the Santa Clara Valley, reaching a maximum over the western edge of the Evergreen basin, where the pre-Cenozoic basement shallows rapidly. Amplification then decreases further to the west. This pattern may be caused by lower shallow shear-wave velocities and thicker Quaternary deposits further from the edge of the Santa Clara Valley and generation/trapping of surface waves above the shallowing basement of the western Evergreen basin. Shear-wave velocities from the inversion of site response spectra based on smaller, local earthquakes compare well with those obtained independently from our seismic reflection/refraction measurements. Velocities from the inversion of site spectra that include larger, regional records do not compare well with these measurements. A mix of local and regional events, however, is appropriate for determination of site response to be used in seismic hazard evaluation, since large damaging events would excite both body and surface waves with a wide range in ray parameters. Frequency-wavenumber, plane-wave analysis is used to determine the backazimuth and apparent velocity of coherent phases at the array. Conventional, high-resolution, and multiple signal characterization f-k power spectra and stacked slowness power spectra are compared. These spectra show surface waves generated/scattered at the edges of the Santa Clara Valley and possibly within the valley at the western edge of the Evergreen basin.

Mean and Modal ϵ in the Deaggregation of Probabilistic Ground Motion

An important element of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) is the incorporation of ground-motion uncertainty from the earthquake sources. The standard normal variate ϵ measures the difference between any specified spectral-acceleration level, or SA, and the estimated median spectral acceleration from each probabilistic source. In this article, mean and modal values of ϵ for a specified SA are defined and computed from all sources considered in the USGS 1996 PSHA maps. Contour maps of ϵ are presented for the conterminous United States for 1-, 0.3-, and 0.2-sec SA and for peak horizontal acceleration, PGA corresponding to a 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr, or mean annual rate of exceedance, r , of 0.000404. Mean and modal ϵ exhibit a wide variation geographically for any specified PE. Modal ϵ for the 2% in 50 yr PE exceeds 2 near the most active western California faults, is less than –1 near some less active faults of the western United States (principally in the Basin and Range), and may be less than 0 in areal fault zones of the central and eastern United States (CEUS). This geographic variation is useful for comparing probabilistic ground motions with ground motions from scenario earthquakes on dominating faults, often used in seismic-resistant provisions of building codes. An interactive seismic-hazard deaggregation menu item has been added to the USGS probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis Web site, , allowing visitors to compute mean and modal distance, magnitude, and ϵ corresponding to ground motions having mean return times from 250 to 5000 yr for any site in the United States.

Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Implementation of NGA-West2 Ground Motion Models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.