Arthur L. Lerner-Lam

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of ‘nowcasts’ that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work’s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity–duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Seismic waves generated by aircraft impacts and building collapses at World Trade Center, New York City

Seismologists sometimes do their work of data acquisition and analysis against a tragic background. Usually, the context is fieldwork far from home, in an area subjected to the natural but sometimes devastating effects of an earthquake. But in the present case, we are in our own New York City area; that is, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, in Palisades, N.Y; and the context is inhuman actions against people and the fabric of our society. As the appalling events of September 11 unfolded, we found that we had recorded numerous seismic signals from two plane impacts and building collapses of the two World Trade Center (WTC) towers, often at times different than those being reported elsewhere. Collapses of the two WTC towers generated large seismic waves, observed in five states and up to 428 km away The north tower collapse was the largest seismic source and had local magnitude ML 2.3. From this, we infer that ground shaking of the WTC towers was not a major contributor to the collapse or damage to surrounding buildings. But unfortunately, we also conclude that from the distance at which our own detections were made (the nearest station is 34 km away at Palisades) it is not possible to infer (with detail sufficient to meet the demands of civil engineers in an emergency situation) just what the near-in ground motions must have been.