Arvids A. Ziedonis

Overoptimism and the Performance of Entrepreneurial Firms

Recent theoretical and empirical research on cognitive bias in decision making suggests that overoptimism critically influences entrepreneurs decisions to establish and sustain new ventures. We investigate whether such cognitive bias influences entrepreneurial venture performance using data on commercialization efforts for university inventions. In contrast to prior studies, our results suggest that entrepreneurial overoptimism does not appear to be the determining factor in the decision to found a firm. We do find that entrepreneurs continue unsuccessful development efforts for longer periods of time than do established firms, which is consistent with entrepreneurial overoptimism in the development of technologies with uncertain market prospects. This latter finding is also consistent with rationality-based models of decision-making behavior, however. We find that the economic returns associated with many of the technologies in our sample are realized after the start-up has been acquired by an established firm, suggesting that start-ups may serve as a transitional organizational form in the market for technology commercialization.

Changes in university patent quality after the Bayh¿Dole act: a re-examination

The Bayh-Dole Act of 1980 facilitated the retention by universities of patent rights resulting from government funded academic research, thus encouraging university entry into patenting and licensing. Though the Act is widely recognized to be a major change in federal policy towards academic research, surprisingly little empirical analysis has been directed at assessing its impacts on the academy and on university-industry research relationships. An important exception is the work of Henderson et al. [Rev. Econ. Stat. 80 (1998) 119-127] which examined the impact of Bayh-Dole on the quality of university patents, as measured by the number of times they are cited in subsequent patents. The authors found that the quality of academic patents declined dramatically after Bayh-Dole, a finding that has potentiallyimportant policy implications. Inthis paper, we revisit this influential finding. By using a longer stream of patent citations data, we show that the results of the Henderson et al. study reflect changes in the intertemporal distribution of citations to university patents, rather than a significant change in the total number of citations these patents eventually receive. This has important implications not only for the evaluation of Bayh-Dole, but also for future research using patent citations as economic indicators.

Real Options in Technology Licensing

This paper examines the use of options contracts by firms acquiring rights to commercialize university technologies. By combining information about the sequence of licensing decisions with characteristics of the firms and technologies involved, I explore factors that shape decisions to purchase and exercise option contracts for these technologies. Decisions by firms that considered but did not purchase an option or a license are included in the sample. Consistent with the basic premise of real-options theory, I find that firms are more likely to purchase option contracts for more uncertain technologies. Also in line with theoretical predictions, I find that firms that are better able to evaluate an external technology are less likely to purchase options before licensing. The results also highlight more complex motives for exercising options in technology licensing. On the one hand, firms appear to benefit from their ability to learn about the technology during the option period. On the other hand, firms that are better able to “absorb” the technology during the contract period may have reduced incentives to subsequently license the invention.

Patent Citations and the Economic Value of Patents

Over the last decade, researchers studying innovation have increasingly used measures based on patent citations to estimate the values of new technologies, which are typically unobserved. In this study we examine the relationship between patent citation counts and private economic value in a dataset in which the latter is observed. Specifically, we use data about patenting and licensing by two major U.S. research universities to examine whether patent citations predict if university technologies are licensed, and the amount of revenue they earn if licensed. Our preliminary results suggest that citations are significantly related to the probability that a patent is licensed, but not to revenues conditional upon licensing.

Deferral and Growth Options Under Sequential Innovation

This paper examines the application of real option theory to sequential investment decision-making. In an effort to contribute to the development of criteria that discriminate between investments that confer growth options from those that confer deferral options, we introduce a conceptual model that explains technological adoption as a sequence of embedded options. Upon the introduction of each successive technological generation, a firm may either defer investment and wait for the arrival of a future generation or invest immediately to obtain experience that provides a claim on adoption of subsequent generations. We propose that deferral and growth option value is dependent on the magnitude, frequency, and uncertainty of inter-generational change, and the nature of rivalry.