Arvydas Galinis

Challenges and options for development of the Lithuanian energy sector

This paper describes recent changes in the Lithuanian economy and the energy sector. It presents a methodology of energy planning in Lithuania, and describes the main principles of energy demand forecasting based application of econometric models and the simulation MAED model. It also presents a short description of the optimisation MESSAGE model and options for the development of the Lithuanian energy sector. Measures that should be implemented in the Lithuanian energy sector seeking to mitigate the negative consequences of the closure of the Ignalina NPP in 2009 are discussed.

Modeling local resources and constraints on the energy development

Renewable energy and local resources play increasingly important role in the contemporary energy system. However, many energy planning models fail to represent peculiarities and constraints related to the use of bioenergy and other local resources. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the impact of modelling methods used for the reflection of local energy and non-energy resources and constraints in energy planning models. For this, scientific literature concerning modelling methods has been analysed and special mathematical model has been created. This model allows for optimization of heat production in different generation sources. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis has revealed the most influential factors in both traditional specification of the model and extended one which includes reflection of local resources and constraints. The results of the research highlight the positive effects provided by the integration of local peculiarities into the traditional energy planning models. JEL Codes: D62, M20, O13, Q41. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15544/mts.2016.31

Cost-efficient emission reduction strategies for Lithuania

As a consequence of the political changes in 1991, Lithuania is currently facing the challenge of developing an efficient energy supply system. Owing to the outdated energy system and the lack of domestic energy resources, Lithuania has to find the pathway for a sustainable economic development. However, such a strategy should be developed with consideration for the requirements of environmental protection complying with international protocols. Therefore, the energy-flow optimization model extended by environmental modules (EFOM-ENV) of the Commission of the European Communities has been adapted and applied to Lithuania. This has been carried out in a joint co-operation project of the Institute for Industrial Production and the Lithuanian Energy Institute, financed by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). To study the effects of budget limitations during the transitory period from a centrally planned to a market economy, new constraints concerning investments and fuel imports in hard currency have been introduced. Among others, these effects have been analyzed with regard to their impacts on the development of cost-efficient emission reduction strategies.