Vaclovas Miskinis

Risk management on energy and environmental conservation in CEE countries

The report has been prepared on the basis of seven independent provided research projects, realised by experts from all countries of CEE. The seven research projects are: 1) Development of risk analyses on energy and environmental conservation; 2) Strategic forecast on energy and environment conservation; 3) Main risk sources identification on energy conservation policy; 4) Risk valuation methods on energy and environment conservation; 5) Used risk valuation methods on energy and environment conservation; 6) Efficient possibilities to decrease economic delinquency; 7) Future ICEEP research on risk management; in CEE countries and completed with used bibliography.

Assessment of national carbon dioxide emission factors for the Lithuanian fuel combustion sector

This paper aims at deriving country-specific CO2 emission factors for fuels combusted in the Lithuanian energy sector. Rigorously assessed country-specific CO2 emission factors will contribute to accurate and reliable estimates of CO2 emissions. The paper presents the methods applied to derive country-specific CO2 emission factors together with their recommended values and uncertainties for various types of fuels. Analysis of the data provided by the plant operators participating under the European Union emission trading system and aggregation of the measurements results of the accredited research laboratories allowed to determine country-specific CO2 emission factors for the different types of fuels. Uncertainties of recommended CO2 emission factors were derived at a fuel type-specific level. It was set that recommended values of CO2 emission factors are within the uncertainty range of the IPCC default values. The application of determined country-specific CO2 emission factors in the Lithuanian energy sector increases accuracy and decreases uncertainty of the national greenhouse gas inventory.

Challenges and options for development of the Lithuanian energy sector

This paper describes recent changes in the Lithuanian economy and the energy sector. It presents a methodology of energy planning in Lithuania, and describes the main principles of energy demand forecasting based application of econometric models and the simulation MAED model. It also presents a short description of the optimisation MESSAGE model and options for the development of the Lithuanian energy sector. Measures that should be implemented in the Lithuanian energy sector seeking to mitigate the negative consequences of the closure of the Ignalina NPP in 2009 are discussed.

Cost-efficient emission reduction strategies for Lithuania

As a consequence of the political changes in 1991, Lithuania is currently facing the challenge of developing an efficient energy supply system. Owing to the outdated energy system and the lack of domestic energy resources, Lithuania has to find the pathway for a sustainable economic development. However, such a strategy should be developed with consideration for the requirements of environmental protection complying with international protocols. Therefore, the energy-flow optimization model extended by environmental modules (EFOM-ENV) of the Commission of the European Communities has been adapted and applied to Lithuania. This has been carried out in a joint co-operation project of the Institute for Industrial Production and the Lithuanian Energy Institute, financed by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). To study the effects of budget limitations during the transitory period from a centrally planned to a market economy, new constraints concerning investments and fuel imports in hard currency have been introduced. Among others, these effects have been analyzed with regard to their impacts on the development of cost-efficient emission reduction strategies.