Asli Demirguc-Kunt

A New Database on Financial Development and Structure

The authors introduce a new database of indicators of financial development and structure across countries and over time. This database is unique in that it unites a variety of indicators that measure the size, activity, and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets. It improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks, by introducing indicators of the size and activity of non bank financial institutions, and by presenting measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets. The compiled data permit the construction of financial structure indicators to measure whether, for example, a countrys banks are larger, more active, and more efficient than its stock markets. These indicators can then be used to investigate the empirical link between the legal, regulatory, and policy environment and indicators of financial structure. They can also be used to analyze the implications of financial structure for economic growth. The authors describe the sources and construction of, and the intuition behind, different indicators and present descriptive statistics.

How Does Foreign Entry Affect the Domestic Banking Market

Banking markets are becoming increasingly international through financial liberalization and general economic integration. Using bank-level data for 80 countries for 1988-95, the authors examine the extent of foreign ownership in national banking markets. They compare net interest margins, overhead, taxes paid, and profitability of foreign and domestic banks. The comparative functions of foreign banks and domestic banks is very different in developing and industrial countries, possibly because of a different customer base, different bank procedures, and different regulatory and tax regimes. In developing countries foreign banks tend to have greater profits, higher interest margins, and higher tax payments than do domestic banks. In industrial countries it is the domestic banks that have greater profits, higher interest margins, and higher tax payments. It is common to read, in the literature on foreign banking, that the entry of foreign banks can make national banking markets more competitive, thereby forcing domestic banks to operate more efficiently. The authors show that increasing the foreign share of bank ownership does indeed reduce profitability and overhead expenses in domestically owned banks - so the general effect of foreign bank entry may be positive. Interestingly, the number of foreign entrants matters more than their market share, suggesting that they affect local bank competition more on entry rather than after gaining a substantial market share. These effects hold even when controlling for the fact that foreign banks may be attracted to markets with certain characteristics, such as low banking costs.

Capital Structures in Developing Countries

This study uses a new data set to assess whether capital structure theory is portable across countries with different institutional structures. We analyze capital structure choices of firms in 10 developing countries, and provide evidence that these decisions are affected by the same variables as in developed countries. However, there are persistent differences across countries, indicating that specific country factors are at work. Our findings suggest that although some of the insights from modern finance theory are portable across countries, much remains to be done to understand the impact of different institutional features on capital structure choices.

The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries

The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a large sample of developed and developing countries in 1980-94 using a multivariate logit econometric model. The results suggest that crises tend to erupt when the macroeconomic environment is weak, particularly when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates are clearly associated with systemic banking sector problems, and there is some evidence that vulnerability to balance of payments crises has played a role. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were particularly at risk, as were countries with weak law enforcement.

Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation

Based on evidence of 61 countries in 1980-97, the authors find that explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability, the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. The adverse impact of deposit insurance on bank stability tends to be stronger the more extensive is the coverage offered to depositors, and where the scheme is funded and run by the government rather than the private sector.

Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility

A study of 53 countries during 1980-95 finds that financial liberalization increases the probability of a banking crisis, but less so where the institutional environment is strong. In particular, respect for the rule of law, a low level of corruption, and good contract enforcement are relevant institutional characteristics. The data also show that, after liberalization, financially repressed countries tend to have improved financial development even if they experience a banking crisis. This is not true for financially restrained countries. This paper’s results support a cautious approach to financial liberalization where institutions are weak, even if macroeconomic stabilization has been achieved.

Law, endowments, and finance

Abstract Using a sample of 70 former colonies, this paper assesses two theories regarding the historical determinants of financial development. The law and finance theory holds that legal traditions, brought by colonizers, differ in terms of protecting the rights of private investors vis-a-vis the state, with important implications for financial markets. The endowment theory argues that the disease environment encountered by colonizers influences the formation of long-lasting institutions that shape financial development. The empirical results provide evidence for both theories. However, initial endowments explain more of the cross-country variation in financial intermediary and stock market development.

Financial Performance and Outreach: A Global Analysis of Leading Microbanks

Microfinance contracts have proven able to secure high rates of loan repayment in the face of limited liability and information asymmetries, but high repayment rates have not translated easily into profits for most microbanks. Profitability, though, is at the heart of the promise that microfinance can deliver poverty reduction while not relying on ongoing subsidy. The authors examine why this promise remains unmet for most institutions. Using a data set with unusually high quality financial information on 124 institutions in 49 countries, they explore the patterns of profitability, loan repayment, and cost reduction. The authors find that institutional design and orientation matter substantially. Lenders that do not use group-based methods to overcome incentive problems experience weaker portfolio quality and lower profit rates when interest rates are raised substantially. For these individual-based lenders, one key to achieving profitability is investing more heavily in staff costs-a finding consistent with the economics of information but contrary to the conventional wisdom that profitability is largely a function of minimizing cost.

Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Cross-Country Comparisons

What are the relative advantages and disadvantages of bank-based financial systems (as in Germany and Japan) and market-based financial systems (as in England and the United States). Does financial structure matter? In bank-based systems banks play a leading role in mobilizing savings, allocating capital, overseeing the investment decisions of corporate managers, and providing risk management vehicles. In market-based systems securities markets share center stage with banks in getting societys savings to firms, exerting corporate control, and easing risk management. The unresolved debate about whether markets or bank-based intermediaries are more effective at providing financial services hampers the formation of sound policy advice. The authors use newly collected data on a cross-section of roughly 150 countries to illustrate how financial systems differ around the world. They a) analyze how the size, activity, and efficiency of financial systems differ across different per capita income groups; b) define different indicators of financial structure and identify different patterns as countries become richer, and c) investigate legal, regulatory, and policy determinants of financial structure after controlling for per capita GDP. A clear pattern emerges: 1) Banks, other financial intermediaries, and stock markets all grow and become more active and efficient as countries become richer. As income grows, the financial sector develops. 2) In higher income countries, stock markets become more active and efficient than banks. Thus, financial systems tend to be more market based. 3) Countries with a common law tradition, strong protection for shareholder rights, good accounting standards, low levels of corruption, and no explicit deposit insurance tend to be more market-based, even after controlling for income. 4) Countries with a French civil law tradition, poor accounting standards, heavily restricted banking systems, and high inflation generally tend to have underdeveloped financial systems, even after controlling for income.

Bank Activity and Funding Strategies: The Impact on Risk and Returns

This paper examines the implications of bank activity and short-term funding strategies for bank risk and return using an international sample of 1,334 banks in 101 countries leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Expansion into noninterest income-generating activities such as trading increases the rate of return on assets, and it could offer some risk diversification benefits at very low levels. Nondeposit, wholesale funding in contrast lowers the rate of return on assets, while it can offer some risk reduction at commonly observed low levels of nondeposit funding. A sizable proportion of banks, however, attract most of their short-term funding in the form of nondeposits at a cost of enhanced bank fragility. Overall, banking strategies that rely prominently on generating noninterest income or attracting nondeposit funding are very risky, consistent with the demise of the US investment banking sector.