Maria Soledad Martinez Peria

Bank Lending to Small Businesses in Latin America: Does Bank Origin Matter?

In recent years foreign bank participation has increased tremendously in Latin America. Some observers argue that foreign bank entry will benefit Latin American banking systems by reducing the volatility of loans and deposits and increasing efficiency. Others are concerned that foreign banks might choose to extend credit only to certain customers, leaving some sectors-such as small businesses-unserved. The authors examine this issue. Using bank-level data for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Peru during the mid-1990s, they empirically investigate whether bank origin affects the share and growth rate of bank lending to small businesses. They find that although foreign banks generally lent less to small businesses (as share of total lending) than private domestic banks, the difference is due primarily to the behavior of small foreign banks. The difference was considerably smaller for large and medium-sized banks. And in Chile and Colombia, large foreign banks might actually lend slightly more (as share of total lending) than large domestic banks.

Does Foreign Bank Penetration Reduce Access to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking Borrowers

Existing evidence on the effect of foreign bank penetration on lending to small and medium-size enterprises is ambiguous. Case studies of developing countries show that foreign banks lend less to such firms than domestic banks do. But cross-country studies find that foreign bank entry fosters competition and reduces interest rates, benefits that should extend to all firms. The authors use data from a large cross-country survey of enterprises to investigate this issue. Their results suggest that foreign bank penetration improves financing conditions (both the quantities of financing and the terms) for enterprises of all sizes, although it seems to benefit larger firms more.

Bank Financing for SMES: Evidence Across Countries and Bank-Ownership Types

Using data for 91 large banks from 45 countries, this paper finds that foreign, domestic private, and government-owned banks use different lending technologies and organizational structures for SME financing. The extent, type, and pricing of SME loans, however, is not strongly correlated with lending technologies and organizational structures, suggesting that SME financing need not be based only on “relationship lending”. Consistent with these results, we find few significant differences in the extent, type, and pricing of SME loans across bank types. Instead, we find significant differences across developed and developing countries, driven by differences in the institutional and legal environment.

Banking Crises and Exchange Rate Regimes: Is There a Link?

The authors investigate the links between banking crises, and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive data set that includes developed, and developing countries over the last two decades. In particular, they examine whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate, diminishes the likelihood of a banking crisis in developing countries. But once a banking crisis occurs, its real costs - in terms of forgone output growth - are higher for countries with more stringent exchange rate requirements. The duration of crises seems not to be affected by exchange rate policy. Instead, it is influenced mainly by the size of the credit boom before the crisis.

Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences

The paper has three objectives. After a general introduction to some of the concepts and basic techniques of stress testing, the paper gives an overview of some of the conceptual issues involved in evaluating risks at the aggregated level of financial systems. Second, this study provides a basic framework and toolkit for conducting stress tests. Finally, the paper reviews some of the stress-testing analyses conducted in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and suggests simplified approaches to deal with situations where the quantity and quality of the data is less than ideal.

Bank Financing for SMEs around the World: Drivers, Obstacles, Business Models, and Lending Practices

Using data from a survey of 91 banks in 45 countries, the authors characterize bank financing to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) around the world. They find that banks perceive the SME segment to be highly profitable, but perceive macroeconomic instability in developing countries and competition in developed countries as the main obstacles. To serve SMEs banks have set up dedicated departments and decentralized the sale of products to the branches. However, loan approval, risk management, and loan recovery functions remain centralized. Compared with large firms, banks are less exposed to small enterprises, charge them higher interest rates and fees, and experience more non-performing loans from lending to them. Although there are some differences in SMEs financing across government, private, and foreign-owned banks - with the latter being more likely to engage in arms-length lending - the most significant differences are found between banks in developed and developing countries. Banks in developing countries tend to be less exposed to SMEs, provide a lower share of investment loans, and charge higher fees and interest rates. Overall, the evidence suggests that the lending environment is more important than firm size or bank ownership type in shaping bank financing to SMEs.

A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises

Abstract. This paper implements a regime-switching framework to study speculative attacks against EMS currencies during 1979–1993. To identify speculative episodes, we model exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts between two possible states: “tranquil” and “speculative”. We allow the probabilities of switching between states to be a function of fundamentals and expectations. The regime-switching framework improves the ability to identify speculative attacks vis-à-vis the indices of speculative pressure used in the literature. The results also indicate that fundamentals (particularly budget deficits) and expectations drive the probability of switching to a speculative state.

Foreign Bank Participation in Developing Countries: What Do We Know About the Drivers and Consequences of this Phenomenon?

Foreign bank participation has increased steadily across developing countries since the mid-1990s. This paper documents this trend and surveys the existing literature to explore the drivers and consequences of this phenomenon, paying particular attention to the differences observed across regions both in the degree of foreign bank participation and in the impact of this process. Local profit opportunities, the absence of barriers to entry, and the presence of mechanisms to mitigate information problems have been the main factors driving foreign bank entry across developing countries. In general, foreign bank participation has been shown to exert a positive influence on banking sector efficiency and competition. The weight of the evidence suggests that foreign bank presence does not endanger, but rather enhances banking sector stability. And although some case studies suggest that foreign bank entry limits access to finance, many cross-country studies offer evidence to the contrary.

Market discipline under systemic risk - evidence from bank runs in emerging economies

The authors show that systemic risk exerts a significant impact on the behavior of depositors, sometimes overshadowing their responses to standard bank fundamentals. Systemic risk can affect market discipline both regardless of and through bank fundamentals. First, worsening systemic conditions can directly threaten the value of deposits by way of dual agency problems. Second, to the extent that banks are exposed to systemic risk, systemic shocks lead to a future deterioration of fundamentals not captured by their current values. Using data from the recent banking crises in Argentina and Uruguay, the authors show that market discipline is indeed quite robust once systemic risk is factored in. As systemic risk increases, the informational content of past fundamentals declines. These episodes also show how few systemic shocks can trigger a run irrespective of ex-ante fundamentals. Overall, the evidence suggests that in emerging economies, the notion of market discipline needs to account for systemic risk.

Foreign Bank Participation and Crises in Developing Countries

This paper describes the recent trends in foreign bank ownership in developing countries, summarizes the existing evidence on the causes and implications of foreign bank presence, and reexamines the link between banking crises and foreign bank participation. Using data on the share of banking sector assets held by foreign banks in over 100 developing countries during 1995-2002, the results show that countries that experienced a banking crisis tended to have higher levels of foreign bank participation than those that did not. Furthermore, panel regressions indicate that foreign participation increased as a result of crises rather than prior to them. However, post-crisis increases in foreign participation did not coincide with increased credit to the private sector, perhaps because in many cases foreign banks acquired distressed banks.