Asmeret Bier Naugle

Evaluating Moving Target Defense with PLADD

This project evaluates the effectiveness of moving target defense (MTD) techniques using a new game we have designed, called PLADD, inspired by the game FlipIt [28]. PLADD extends FlipIt by incorporating what we believe are key MTD concepts. We have analyzed PLADD and proven the existence of a defender strategy that pushes a rational attacker out of the game, demonstrated how limited the strategies available to an attacker are in PLADD, and derived analytic expressions for the expected utility of the game’s players in multiple game variants. We have created an algorithm for finding a defender’s optimal PLADD strategy. We show that in the special case of achieving deterrence in PLADD, MTD is not always cost effective and that its optimal deployment may shift abruptly from not using MTD at all to using it as aggressively as possible. We believe our effort provides basic, fundamental insights into the use of MTD, but conclude that a truly practical analysis requires model selection and calibration based on real scenarios and empirical data. We propose several avenues for further inquiry, including (1) agents with adaptive capabilities more reflective of real world adversaries, (2) the presence of multiple, heterogeneous adversaries, (3) computational game theory-based approaches such as coevolution to allow scaling to the real world beyond the limitations of analytical analysis and classical game theory, (4) mapping the game to real-world scenarios, (5) taking player risk into account when designing a strategy (in addition to expected payoff), (6) improving our understanding of the dynamic nature of MTD-inspired games by using a martingale representation, defensive forecasting, and techniques from signal processing, and (7) using adversarial games to develop inherently resilient cyber systems.

Using Computational Modeling to Examine Shifts Towards Extremist Behaviors in European Diaspora Communities

We created a simulation model to investigate potential links between the actions of violent extremist organizations (VEOs), people in the VEO’s home country, and diaspora communities from that country living in the West. We created this model using the DYMATICA framework, which uses a hybrid cognitive-system dynamics modeling strategy to simulate behaviors based on psycho-social theory. Initial results of the model are given, focusing on increases to VEO funding and recruiting resulting from an invasion of the VEO’s home country. Western intervention, prejudice, and economic drivers are also considered.

Recommended Research Directions for Improving the Validation of Complex Systems Models.

Improved validation for models of complex systems has been a primary focus over the past year for the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge. This document describes a set of research directions that are the result of distilling those ideas into three categories of research—epistemic uncertainty, strong tests, and value of information. The content of this document can be used to transmit valuable information to future research activities, update the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge’s roadmap, inform the upcoming FY18 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) call and research proposals, and facilitate collaborations between Sandia and external organizations. The recommended research directions can provide topics for collaborative research, development of proposals, workshops, and other opportunities.

Cooperation and Free Riding in Cyber Security Information-Sharing Programs

Even with substantial investment in cyber defense, the risk of harm from cyber attacks is significant for many organizations. Multi-organization information-sharing programs have the potential to improve cyber security at relatively low cost by allowing organizations that face similar threats to share information on vulnerabilities, attacks, and defense strategies. The dynamics of an information-sharing program are likely to depend heavily on interactions between human decision makers. This article describes a system dynamics model of an information-sharing program. The model incorporates decision-making strategies of managers and cyber defenders in each participating organization. The model was used to assess how free-riding behavior is likely to affect the success of a multi-organization information-sharing program. Results shows that free riding may make information sharing more volatile and less beneficial early on, but other factors, including cost savings and the perceived utility of shared information, are likely to create success later in the time horizon.

Examining How Perception of External Threat Influences the Popularity of Government Leaders

This paper seeks to explore the conditions where leaders from open democracies to authoritarian states become more or less popular in response to perceived economic and social threats to society, along with increases in societal (economic and social) hardship and group polarization effects. To further explore these conditions, we used a psycho-social approach to develop a preliminary conceptual model of how the perception of threats, changes in societal conditions, and the polarization of society can concurrently influence the popularity of a government leader.

Simulating smoking behaviors based on cognition-determined, opinion-based system dynamics

We created a cognition-focused system dynamics model to simulate the dynamics of smoking tendencies based on media influences and communication of opinions. We based this model on the premise that the dynamics of attitudes about smoking can be more deeply understood by combining opinion dynamics with more in-depth psychological models that explicitly explore the root causes of behaviors of interest. Results of the model show the relative effectiveness of two different policies as compared to a baseline: a decrease in advertising spending, and an increase in educational spending. The initial results presented here indicate the utility of this type of simulation for analyzing various policies meant to influence the dynamics of opinions in a population.