Munaf Syed Aamir

Creating interaction environments: defining a two-sided market model of the development and dominance of platforms

Interactions between individuals, both economic and social, are increasingly mediated by technological systems. Such platforms facilitate interactions by controlling and regularizing access, while extracting rent from users. The relatively recent idea of two-sided markets has given insights into the distinctive economic features of such arrangements, arising from network effects and the power of the platform operator. Simplifications required to obtain analytical results, while leading to basic understanding, prevent us from posing many important questions. For example we would like to understand how platforms can be secured when the costs and benefits of security differ greatly across users and operators, and when the vulnerabilities of particular designs may only be revealed after they are in wide use. We define an agent-based model that removes many constraints limiting existing analyses (such as uniformity of users, free and perfect information), allowing insights into a much larger class of real systems.

A Generalized Framework for Modeling Next Generation 911 Implementations.

This document summarizes the current state of Sandia 911 modeling capabilities and then addresses key aspects of Next Generation 911 (NG911) architectures for expansion of existing models. Analysis of three NG911 implementations was used to inform heuristics, associated key data requirements, and assumptions needed to capture NG911 architectures in the existing models. Modeling of NG911 necessitates careful consideration of its complexity and the diversity of implementations. Draft heuristics for constructing NG911 models are presented based on the analysis along with a summary of current challenges and ways to improve future NG911 modeling efforts. We found that NG911 relies on Enhanced 911 (E911) assets such as 911 selective routers to route calls originating from traditional telephony service which are a majority of 911 calls. We also found that the diversity and transitional nature of NG911 implementations necessitates significant and frequent data collection to ensure that adequate models are available for crisis action support.

Cooperation and Free Riding in Cyber Security Information-Sharing Programs

Even with substantial investment in cyber defense, the risk of harm from cyber attacks is significant for many organizations. Multi-organization information-sharing programs have the potential to improve cyber security at relatively low cost by allowing organizations that face similar threats to share information on vulnerabilities, attacks, and defense strategies. The dynamics of an information-sharing program are likely to depend heavily on interactions between human decision makers. This article describes a system dynamics model of an information-sharing program. The model incorporates decision-making strategies of managers and cyber defenders in each participating organization. The model was used to assess how free-riding behavior is likely to affect the success of a multi-organization information-sharing program. Results shows that free riding may make information sharing more volatile and less beneficial early on, but other factors, including cost savings and the perceived utility of shared information, are likely to create success later in the time horizon.

Simulating smoking behaviors based on cognition-determined, opinion-based system dynamics

We created a cognition-focused system dynamics model to simulate the dynamics of smoking tendencies based on media influences and communication of opinions. We based this model on the premise that the dynamics of attitudes about smoking can be more deeply understood by combining opinion dynamics with more in-depth psychological models that explicitly explore the root causes of behaviors of interest. Results of the model show the relative effectiveness of two different policies as compared to a baseline: a decrease in advertising spending, and an increase in educational spending. The initial results presented here indicate the utility of this type of simulation for analyzing various policies meant to influence the dynamics of opinions in a population.