Aswath Damodaran

Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and Evidence

Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.

The Effects of Option Listing on the Underlying Stocks' Return Processes

Abstract The effects of option listing on the returns processes of the underlying securities are examined in this paper by looking at a sample of 200 firms which had options listed on them on the CBOE and the AMEX between 1973 and 1983. We find that the listing of options leads to significantly lower variance in the daily returns or the underlying stocks. We also find that prices adjust much more quickly to new information and that the noise component declines after the listing of options. We trace the speedier price adjustment process to increased information collection after the listing and the reduced noise after the listing to a decline in the bid-ask spread after option listing, partially because of increased competition from market-makers on the option market and partially because of increased institutional interest in the stocks after listing.

Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications – The 2012 Edition

Equity risk premiums are a central component of every risk and return model in finance and are a key input into estimating costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. Given their importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in practice. We begin this paper by looking at the economic determinants of equity risk premiums, including investor risk aversion, information uncertainty and perceptions of macroeconomic risk. In the standard approach to estimating equity risk premiums, historical returns are used, with the difference in annual returns on stocks versus bonds over a long time period comprising the expected risk premium. We note the limitations of this approach, even in markets like the United States, which have long periods of historical data available, and its complete failure in emerging markets, where the historical data tends to be limited and volatile. We look at two other approaches to estimating equity risk premiums – the survey approach, where investors and managers are asked to assess the risk premium and the implied approach, where a forward-looking estimate of the premium is estimated using either current equity prices or risk premiums in non-equity markets. We also look at the relationship between the equity risk premium and risk premiums in the bond market (default spreads) and in real estate (cap rates) and how that relationship can be mined to generated expected equity risk premiums. We close the paper by examining why different approaches yield different values for the equity risk premium, and how to choose the “right�? number to use in analysis.

The Determinants of Organizational Form Changes: Evidence and Implications from Real Estate

Abstract We study changes in the real estate industry among organizational forms with varying degrees of restrictiveness and document the associated changes in profitability, free cash flow, debt, dividends, and investment policies. All troubled firms in our sample move to a more flexible organizational structure, with subsequent reductions in dividends, improvements in performance, and increases in asset sales and investments. Healthy firms that move to a tighter structure have larger free cash flows before the change; they increase dividends, reduce free cash flows and improve profitability after the change. We document evidence of tax considerations in organizational changes.

What is the Riskfree Rate? A Search for the Basic Building Block

In corporate finance and valuation, we start off with the presumption that the riskfree rate is given and easy to obtain and focus the bulk of our attention on estimating the risk parameters of individuals firms and risk premiums. But is the riskfree rate that simple to obtain? Both academics and practitioners have long used government security rates as riskfree rates, though there have been differences on whether to use short term or long-term rates. In this paper, we not only provide a framework for deciding whether to use short or long term rates in analysis but also a roadmap for what to do when there is no government bond rate available or when there is default risk in the government bond. We look at common errors that creep into valuations as a consequence of getting the riskfree rate wrong and suggest a way in which we can preserve consistency in both valuation and capital budgeting.

Measuring Company Exposure to Country Risk: Theory and Practice

The growth of financial markets in Asia and Latin America and the allure of globalization have made the analysis and assessment of country risk a critical component of valuation in recent years. In this paper, we consider two issues. The first is the whether country risk should be considered explicitly in valuation, and if the answer is yes, how to do it. Generically, there are two ways of incorporating country risk; we can either adjust the cash flows or change the discount rate and we will consider both approaches. The second and equally important issue is how to assess a companys exposure to country risk and we will emphasize two points. The first is that not all companies in an emerging market are equally exposed to country risk and that we need to differentiate between firms. The second is that a companys exposure to country risk comes not from where it incorporates and trades but from where it does its business. In other words, assessing and dealing with country risk can be important even for companies that trade in developed markets, if they get a significant portion of their revenues in emerging markets.

Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications - A Post-Crisis Update

Equity risk premiums are a central component of every risk and return model in finance and are a key input into estimating costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. Given their importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in practice. We begin this paper by looking at the economic determinants of equity risk premiums, including investor risk aversion, information uncertainty and perceptions of macroeconomic risk. In the standard approach to estimating equity risk premiums, historical returns are used, with the difference in annual returns on stocks versus bonds over a long time period comprising the expected risk premium. We note the limitations of this approach, even in markets like the United States, which have long periods of historical data available, and its complete failure in emerging markets, where the historical data tends to be limited and volatile. We look at two other approaches to estimating equity risk premiums - the survey approach, where investors and managers ar asked to assess the risk premium and the implied approach, where a forward-looking estimate of the premium is estimated using either current equity prices or risk premiums in non-equity markets. We also look at the relationship between the equity risk premium and risk premiums in the bond market (default spreads) and in real estate (cap rates) and how that relationship can be mined to generated expected equity risk premiums. We close the paper by examining why different approaches yield different values for the equity risk premium, and how to choose the “right” number to use in analysis. (In an addendum, we also look at equity risk premiums during the market crisis, starting on September 12, 2008 through December 31, 2008, and then track the shift the changes through September 30, 2009.)

Valuing Young, Start-Up and Growth Companies: Estimation Issues and Valuation Challenges

Young companies are difficult to value for a number of reasons. Some are start-up and idea businesses, with little or no revenues and operating losses. Even those young companies that are profitable have short histories and most young firms are dependent upon private capital, initially owner savings and venture capital and private equity later on. As a result, many of the standard techniques we use to estimate cash flows, growth rates and discount rates either do not work or yield unrealistic numbers. In addition, the fact that most young companies do not survive has to be considered somewhere in the valuation. In this paper, we examine how best to value young companies. We use a combination of data on more mature companies in the business and the company’s own characteristics to forecast revenues, earnings and cash flows. We also establish processes for estimating discount rates for private capital and for adjusting the value today for the possibility of failure. In the process, we argue that the venture capital approach to valuation that is widely used now is flawed and should be replaced.

Dealing with Intangibles: Valuing Brand Names, Flexibility and Patents

A standard critique of valuation models, in general, and discounted cash flow models in particular is that they fail to fully account for the many intangible assets possessed by firms. There have been attempts to value brand name, trade marks and copyrights and bring them on to the balance sheet. Other intangible assets include patents and customer lists. We would expand this list to consider the flexibility that a firm may preserve to expand its market or enter new markets. In this paper, we consider a variety of ways in which these assets can be valued and the consequences for investors.

Volatility Rules: Valuing Emerging Market Companies

As the center of gravity shifts from developed markets in the United States to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, analysts are also grappling with estimation questions that arise more frequently with emerging market companies. In this paper, we begin by looking at common errors that show up in emerging market company valuations. We then deal with two big issues that underlie these valuations. The first relates to country risk and how best to deal with it in valuation. In particular, what are the country risks that we should incorporate into cash flows and when does country risk affect discount rates? The second arises from the lack of transparency and poor corporate governance that characterize many emerging market companies. We close the paper by examining how best to do relative valuation in emerging markets, especially when the comparable companies are listed in other markets.