Attila Havas

The Impact of Foresight on Innovation Policy-Making: Recent Experiences and Future Perspectives

Foresight has evolved as a distinct prospective analytical tool: it considers alternative futures of various S&T fields or socio-economic systems by bringing together the perspectives of various stakeholder groups, and thus assists the decision-making processes at different levels. However, in order to avoid hypes — and subsequent disappointments — about what foresight can deliver, the potential contributions to decision-making processes by foresight should be clearly understood. The article puts foresight into this broader context of policy-making processes, with a particular emphasis on innovation policy. It describes the evolution of different policy rationales since the 1960s, develops a framework to classify the impacts of various types of prospective analyses, and reviews the evaluation results of several national foresight programmes by using this framework. On that basis, future directions of how foresight might evolve are considered to spur discussions. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Changing Patterns of Inter- and Intra-Regional Division of Labour: Central Europe’s Long and Winding Road

Central Europe’s unique history together with its geographical location provide an excellent opportunity to analyse the dynamics of inter-and intra-regional division of labour, the role and scope of global and regional patterns, national policies and firms’ strategies. Central European countries have long-established, but somewhat different automotive traditions, shaped by the three distinct socio-economic systems occurring in the space of 90 years. These traditions continue to shape the auto industry even today.

Universities and the emerging new players: Building futures for higher education

Universities are long-established organisations, and although they have reinvented themselves several times, major reforms are needed again, underpinned by systematic prospective analyses. A novel method is needed to take into account the wide-ranging and complex factors, shaping the future of the higher education system. ‘Futures’ should be devised in a multi-level structure as the bulk of trends and driving forces are international in their nature and universities are embedded in broader socio-economic systems. This new approach is demonstrated here by devising ‘cascading’ futures for the European Union (EU), the European Research and Innovation Area (ERIA) and universities. Several advantages can be expected from this type of prospective analysis: (i) the potential changes of these broader settings, in which universities operate, as well as their impacts on higher education can be explored; (ii) the huge diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be reflected; and (iii) the likely impacts of different policy options can also be explored. It is also proposed to select foresight programmes from the ‘prospective toolkit’, given their specific features and benefits compared to other prospective methods.

Trapped by the high-tech myth : The need and chances for a new policy rationale

Against the backdrop of a strong plea for evidence-based policy, this paper juxtaposes how innovation is analyzed in mainstream economics and evolutionary economics of innovation, as well as their concomitant policy rationales. By discussing the indicators selected for the Innovation Union Scoreboard and another major EU report, it argues that the science-push model of innovation is still highly influential in the EU STI policy circles, despite a rich set of research insights stressing the importance of non-RD ii) it is a highly demanding set of tasks to identify systemic failures, devise appropriate policies to tackle those, and organize the required stakeholder dialogues; iii) several policies affect innovation processes and performance, perhaps even more strongly than STI policies, and hence policy goals and tools need to be orchestrated across several policy domains; iv) analysts and policy-makers need to be careful when interpreting their country’s ranking on ‘scoreboards’; v) the choice of an economics paradigm to guide policy evaluation is likely to be decisive.

The Interplay between Innovation and Production Systems at Various Levels: The case of the Hungarian automotive industry

The paper first discusses alternative theoretical frameworks to analyse the impacts of FDI on host economies. Second, it provides an overview of major developments in the Hungarian automotive industry since the early 1990s, discussing both firm strategies and the macro level factors influencing the former ones, especially by highlighting the consequences of Hungary’s accession to the EU. A tentative taxonomy has also been developed, and applied when discussing the prospects for Hungarian suppliers. The paper concludes that diffusion models and the notion of sectoral system of innovation and production offer a more appropriate conceptual framework to capture the actual socio-economic impacts of FDI in this sector than the generally used spillover models. Notwithstanding the huge importance of globalisation, various elements and dynamics of national innovation systems still do matter. As for a major element of an NIS, namely government policies, it is more fruitful to create an attractive, favourable environment for R&D and innovation than focusing on the promotion of industry-specific R&D and innovation activities. It is also of crucial importance to co-ordinate several policies to enhance competitiveness.

Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme

Hungary launched her first foresight programme in 1997. As the country is undergoing fundamental economic and social changes, major institutions are being currently shaped. Therefore is high time to think about medium and long-term issues. In other words, now it is possible to devise strategies aimed at improving the quality of life and the long-term international competitiveness. Foresight has seemed an adequate tool to bring together business, the science base and government in order to identify and respond to emerging opportunities in markets and technologies. TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on both panel activities (scenarios, SWOT analysis, recommendations, policy proposals, etc.) and a large scale Delphi survey. The two-year Programme will conclude in 1999. The paper is aimed at analysing the reasons to launch TEP, its results achieved so far and some methodological issues, namely • a strong emphasis on scenarios (‘macro’ and panel level), • the structure and composition of panels (education and learning as input of competitiveness, employment as a unique issue, broad issues as panel topics), • the importance of cross-cutting issues, • the organisation and management of the programme, • the socio-psychological legacy of planning in the foresight process.

Erawatch Country Reports 2011: Hungary

This report identifies five main science, technology and innovation (STI) policy challenges in Hungary. The first two ones can be understood as symptoms, which are important enough to consider them on their own; the third is an ‘early warning’ signal; while the last two are not only important symptoms, but also major reasons to be considered when explaining poor innovation performance. - Low level of innovation activities, especially that of the SMEs; - Low occurrence of co-operation in innovation activities among key actors; - Insufficient quantity of human resources for RD - Unfavorable framework conditions for innovation, especially unpredictable business environment, high administrative and tax burden, competition not conducive to innovation; - Shortcomings in STI policy: lack of political commitment; instability; shortfalls in implementation; and slow, insufficiently informed policy learning processes. Two main reasons of the poor innovation performance have also been identified. One of these points outside the narrowly defined STI policy domain: the framework conditions for innovations influence firms’ behaviour with such a power that STI policy schemes cannot offer strong enough incentives to overrule those unfavourable effects. Thus, major policy efforts are needed to create favourable framework conditions, notably a stable macroeconomic environment; endurable administrative and tax burdens on firms; strong demand for new products; a sufficient supply of skilled people for RTDI projects; appropriate regulations and standards; effective IPR policies; etc. Further, policies affecting these conditions need to be aligned with STI policy efforts to make a difference. The second set of factors can be grouped together as shortcomings in policy-making, including lack of political commitment. RD evaluation of individual policy measures, as well as that of the policy mix as a whole; and technology assessment – should be relied upon when devising and implementing STI policy measures, also assisted by recurring consultations with the major actors of the national innovation system.

Recent economic theorising on innovation: Lessons for analysing social innovation

This paper reviews recent economic theorising on innovation from the angle of analysing social innovations (SI). It is structured as follows: Some of the basic notions used in innovation analyses are considered in section 2, focusing on the subject, objectives and levels of change. Section 3 reviews how innovation is understood in particular models of innovation and analysed by various schools of economics highlighting the types of actors and knowledge perceived as relevant in these various approaches. The notion of innovation systems (national, regional, sectoral, and technological ones) and its analytical and policy relevance is explored in section 4. Lessons relevant for analysing social innovation are drawn at the end of each sub-section, and the most important of those are reiterated in the concluding section.

Comparative Analysis of Policy-Mixes of Research and Innovation Policies in Central and Eastern European Countries

Observing the CEE members of the EU (EU10 countries) from a distance, they certainly used to share major structural similarities given their historical legacies, as well as certain ‘unifying’ effects of their transition to market economy and democracy. Yet, a closer look reveals important elements of diversity in (a) the structure of their national innovation system, (b) the direction of recent structural changes, (c) innovation performance, and (d) patterns of business-academia collaboration. Given this diversity one would assume that fairly different needs are identified in the EU10 countries, necessitating differentiated, ‘tailored’ policy responses. Yet, these countries follow the same STI policy rationale, namely the market failure argument, which itself can be seen as a unifying force. Actually, this is not unique to the EU10 countries: the science-push model of innovation is still highly influential in the STI policy circles both at the level of the EC and the member states, despite a rich set of research insights stressing the importance of non-RD (ii) new indicators that better reflect the evolutionary processes of learning and innovation would be needed to support policy-making; iii) STI policies should promote knowledge-intensive activities in all sectors, including low- and medium-technology industries and services; iv) it is a demanding task to identify what failure(s) is (are) blocking innovation processes in what part of a given innovation system, but that effort cannot be spared if the aim is to design appropriate – sound and effective – policies.

Multiple futures for higher education in a multi-level structure

‘Futures’ (images of the future) are often devised at the level of a single university or at a national level for the overall higher education system. However, the bulk of trends and driving forces shaping universities’ future are international in their nature and universities operate in broader socio-economic and ST (ii) the substantial diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be taken into account; and (iii) the likely impacts of various policy options can also be analysed.